大连市甘井子区产业结构的动态分析与发展预测Ξ

X(,116023)19901996,19902000,.,,,90A2092B201120,,:,,.:,,,,,,,.,.,.[1],.,,,..19901996[2],,19902000,.21,,17120003MATHEMATICSECONOMICSVo1117No.1Mar.2000X:1999-07-31©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved..,.,,.1219901996.1()GDP()(%)(%)(%)(%)1990104,51721,871201959,8955713431822,75121181991131,64925,765191174,3015614401831,58324101992235,68227,6641117128,8655417351179,15333161993382,47438,4041010221,77958103611122,29132101994502,77139,210718294,41358163311169,14833161995601,15442,244710320,25153133015238,66139171996649,30349,327716341,60552163117258,3713918:[2],.2()GDP()(%)(%)(%)(%)199017816323153131198174551349155613631161991200189311211515101115501445156815334111992244164321151311124129501844188812036111993325110371861116170119521445171171053610199451917152183101225518949124417210198401619956451496910010173051324713421627017842101996733107831021113339141461341183101644214:[3],.12:(1)19901996,(GDP),2019%716%;GDP,19932317©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.1994,,5713%5216%,19931994,GDP;GDP,2118%3918%.199010145199664193,3516%,2615%9.:,,,,,,.(2)19908,1996317;199010,1996216;,19902,1996613.:GDP,,GDP,,GDP,.319901996GDP,3.,.319901996(%)GDP35161415331749192615231422183219(3)GDP,;,,19965216%,,;,,,,.,.31,19901996,[4][5],19972000,.311,,,331:©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,80.1994,19942000,[5].[5].BP,,BP,,.312,19972000(GDP),4.4():GDP19922177217612189121897191719223157231571993318431852211822123121231212438125381321994319231922914429141161921619250128501241995412241233210332117231872319560112601351996419341903411633175251842515264193641171997512651253618536175281212812870132701281998516140104311407710519995196431893419384178200061244713638180921404:,.2%,,97.:19972000,417%710%,715%10%,815%11.2%,GDP812%10%.1996716521639182000618511242.GDP018114,212,.15%,,,.,,..,4317©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,..[1],,,19891[2],1996,1997,,1996,19971[3],,199419971[4],,,19931[5],,,,,,19971DYNAMICALANALYSISANDDEVELOPMENTFORECASTINGOFTHEINDUSTRIALSTRUCTURESINDALIANGANJINGZIDISTRICTTangHuanwenWangWeiDingKunGuoWeibinLiHong(Res.Inst.ofManage.Sci.andEng.,DalianUniv.ofTechnol.,Dalian,116023)AbstractBasedonthestatisticdatafrom1990to1996,weanalyzeandforecastthetransformationoftheindustri2alstructuresinDalianGanjingzidistrictfrom1990to2000.Theresultsprovidedecisionsupportingandquantitativefoundationforadjustingandoptimizingindustrialstructuresinthisdistrict.KeywordsIndustrialstructures,dynamicalanalysis,economicforecasting,neuralnetworks531:©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.