我国汽车金融发展策略研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文我国汽车金融发展策略研究姓名：曲世林申请学位级别：硕士专业：金融学指导教师：欧阳令南20060101902004500507.05507.1193.7%RESEARCHONTHESTRATEGYOFCHINA’SAUTO-FINANCEDEVELOPMENTABSTRACTEverysince1990s,Chinahasbeendescribedas“Thefinalandthebiggestauto-marketallovertheworldwhichhasnotbeenexplored.”Accordingtothestatistics,China’sproductionandsalevolumeofcarbothexceeded5millionperyearandeachroseupto5,070,500and5,071,100in2004withaproportionofwhich93.7percentwassoldtoindividuals.Theautoconsumptionespeciallythepersonalautoconsumptiontookafastdevelopment,thusamatureauto-financialservicesystemwasdesirable,andthisiswhyIchoosethistopicasformythesistitle.Thispaperisdividedintofourparts.Partonedescribeswhatisthemeaningofauto-finance,itsmainfunctionsandthenecessityandfeasibilityofdevelopingtheauto-financesysteminChina.Parttwoconcentratingonanalyzingtheproblemswehaveintoday’sauto-financemarketthroughcomparingwithforeigncountriesintheaspectsofauto-financeservicestructure,thefinancingapproaches,therelevantlawsandthecreditloanmode.Partthreeisthecorepartofthispaper,andseveralwaysareprovidedtosolvetheproblemswrittenintheformerpartwithconsiderationsofthesituationofourcountry.Thelastpart,partfouristheprolongationofpartthree,whichfocusesonthefeasibilityofrunningoftheprofessionalauto-financecompanyinChinaandgivesadvicesofitsdevelopment.KEYWORDS:auto-finance,auto-credit,auto-loan,automotivefinancialcompany12006011811,,40%,60%10%200310,20193019197002005289-318128-139WTO1,50%,5%120031020.521)2)3)3200267.9819845864%1990914%200220031041)2)3)52200393WTO20051-242004452004733%--AutomotiveFinanceCompany1919193012ConsumerBankerAssociation342.1.262050.JohnG.Gurley.EdwardS.ShowMcKinnon..601960.HughT.Patrick1966701973FinanceForGrowth:PolicyChoicesInAVolatileWorld,2001165270%1.59722%30-80%801.010.710.660.43971726.59.5262-3%1.470%80%70%60%1FMCC7220%3%MTNS1972GMAC1020007%10%830%20001280()29%20-603/43/41993919981098200310320048171998200481030%III∑∑-=maeoIVeaUmePMaxmqIV)(),()/()()(I)(--IV-oI--)(oIV10Im)(mmq--ae),(--eaUiIIII00)()(0=-IVIVIiRiE(Ri)WTO19982002716031100113%770%12121210%20%3GDP200310:121311420%20%40%60%72004200354520047502005100085072005-12-0682005-05-251510-15%16122201910191610%42%20%30%179adverseselectionWWPRrKr0rr0WPBWrKrRpEupo-+-=])1([W2r,crcPAP1B9Akerlof,1970lemonsmodel18])()[1(])([111crPRPPRPRPPEupP---+-=)]1([)(1PcprpPPR-+-=P1BP2C)(),(),(2121PPcpcrEupPcrEupP-=-P1P2,cp(P1-P2)1AP12P1A3AP1p=P2ABCcp(P1-P2)cp(P1-p)BcP1(P1-P2)cP1(P1-p)P1pcp(P1-p)cP1(P1-p)ABQcp(P1-P2)BA)]1([)]1([)()]()[1(])([),(1111pcrRpPcprpppRcrpRPprpRpPcrEupP---=-+-=---+-=2rrccp(1-p)12319defaultriskspreadrisk111P1%Li(%)EDP1-DRR1-EDP0∑×===)((%)iitlPIEL∑=*0)1()1(×-+-×=EDPDRREDP)1(DRREDP-×==*1-Pii=1,2IiItT(%)UL=])([2∑-=tiIISQRT)2,1(=i20(%)UL=])([222∑-+=IToIPSQRTii∑==PiliELIT(%))2,1(=iSolvency12321probability-of-ruinmodelriskorruintheoreticapproachesscenariosurvivorshipmodeldynamicsolvencyanalysis1234S104S4S104S“”SaleSparepartServiceSurvey2219991177FMCCGMAC(CFC)TFC439%26%35%()10152034461/430%23200211()5%17%12“”25%35%40%20%70%“112005-02-0312()24”30%23%50%()70%60%80%3000200802040%,Hertz1/3252005818200532627GMAC19191248041GMAC1.4612004GMAC6.997.861349%GMACSmartbuy:250SmartleaseGMACGMACFMCC19594012500FMCCFMCCFairland9315200030FMCC2000189017.863%200419.5FMCC8.9775%2FMCC28FMCCFMCCVWC19381994VWC200312313255.651/3290VWC3813VWC:36132001.58888VWC1.VWC7.VWC2.3.4.5.6.29MTNSGMAC1972SECGMAC80%2000128019%29%3/43/46040%20%3030%Hertz504-8AVIS30AVISAVISHertzEurop-car130130023014764%126173.521.4245%200246%31200410GDP943200311GDPGDP50060GDP200070GDP2200160012002003200417303.05289.7923.54%20.57%313.26144.89133.5530.21%27.09%11.341020036322004713.04605200419981020031032004836200483812817199881891033-402035533415945393333353520%415%35530%50%2004101199830%10%80%70%50%20%30%50%199820%30%40%55531200345263678.9%18.4%2.7%240020%200316030%40036%70%376150%385--50003.5%2000200630001420048050%14,2005.1239125%12550%25%GDP40040GDP4002000GDP200010000GDP1000020055902010870202515001070%202552501515Shenker&CollettaAssetSecuritization:EvolutionCurrentIssuesandNewFrontiers.411616MarshallJ.FandEllisM.E.InvestmentBanking&Brokerage:TheNewRulesoftheGameMcGraw.HillInc.199442433200481844452004846[1]20042[2]20055[3]2002715[4]1999[5]20028[6]200312[7]1996[8]20006[9]20035[10]20037[11]200312[12]20031230[13]20026[14]20002[15]WTO2001[16]19994[17]20036[18]1994[19]G[20]1994[21]-200426[22]212004917[23]2003[24]2004[25]200312[26]Marshall,J.E.Bansal,V.K,1992,FinancialEngineering,Acompleteguidetofinancialinnovation.FirstEdition.NewYorkInstitutionofFinance.[27]WTO20051-2[28]20047[29]20044[30]200310[31]DavidJ.Urban,GeorgeE.Hoofer,Thevirtualautomotivedealership:isittime?Isitlegal?JOURNALOFCONSUMERMARKETING,VOL.16NO.21999,pp.137-150[32]RogerD.Blackwell,RemarketingofAutos-theroleofAuctionsintheAutoDistributionRevolution,JournalofConsumerMarketing,Vol.11No.21994[34]JosephSpinaandBrianH.Kleiner,Practicesofexcellentcompaniesintheautomotivefinanceindustry,ManagingServiceQuality,Vol.7No.41997[35]MichaelCaltaandBrianH.Kleiner,ManagingAutomobileDealershipsEffectively,Mana