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)sIR(,714000):sIR:,SIR,,,:50l/a,Sl/:SIR,;sIR;;:Rsl:A:1671o258(2o03)0200~021wet..ee,.,.,..,l,,,1000(),,800,,(:),,,,,,SIR,,,,,,,,:N=MUl(3)S0I,SIR:51I51(4)=I,S(0)=50ItstoJUJUJJU[\leseseseseseseseseeeeeses2SIR(4)D={(S,I)}S)0,I)0,S+I1}(4)dt,:=1dsS(5)SIR,(suseeptibe)(Infective),,:l),NS(t)I(t)R(t)2),,=/l):S(t)+I(t)+R(t)=1(l)Lxl==l(5):l=sIsLSn(6)D(6),1S(t)I(t)t:):N=NslNlUL(2),,,1slRr,200342l)SI,,I=00l/,I(l),S(t)S,PZ(,)ds___,_,~~,*~U,bt)U,P0I3S;0,R(t)1,R;1.dRdtI=n,(2)t,R=Rot,P,R,S2)S,I=0,_,_1,S_blbLlleeU(Tbo(7)S(7)(0,1/,S(0,1/,(4)3)Sl/,I(t),S=l/I(t)s+I(1+Lnas),I(t)/J,s(t)S,P,(S,I)S,1/a,S0l/,l/,Sl/a,(S1),,l/,Sl/,,SS1/(T,S,,(:20030227:20030315),,,,,SARS,,,,,SARS,,,l,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Phaseoluradiatu5L,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,()