摩根史坦利（MorganStanley）互联网发展趋势预测

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.InternetTrendsJune7,2010CMSummit–[e-mail]/[e-mail]/[e-mail]MobileInternet–UnprecedentedEarlyStageGrowthInnovation–UnprecedentedIntensity?OnlineAdvertising–MayBeEnteringGoldenAge,FinallyOnlineCommerce–MobileShouldBeShareGainAcceleratorCommunications–ShareShifttoSharing‘CloudComputing’–ConsumerFirst,EnterpriseNextTechnology–What’sNext…BeyondTechnology–It’sComplicated…3MobileInternet–UnprecedentedEarlyStageGrowth20406080100Q1Q3Q5Q7Q9Q11Q13Q15Q17Q19QuartersSinceLaunchSubscribers(MM)iPhone+iTouchNTTdocomoi-modeAOLNetscape4iPhone+iTouchvs.NTTdocomoi-modevs.AOLvs.NetscapeUsersFirst20QuartersSinceLaunchNote:*AOLsubscribersdatanotavailablebeforeCQ3:94;NetscapeuserslimitedtoUSonly.MorganStanleyResearchestimates~50MMnetbookshaveshippedinfirst10quarterssincelaunch(10/07).Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch.DesktopInternetAOL*v2.0Launched9/94MobileInternetNTTdocomoi-modeLaunched6/99MobileInternetiPhone+iTouchLaunched6/07~86MM~31MM~8MMDesktopInternetNetscape*Launched12/94~18MMMobileInternetRampingFasterthanDesktopInternetDid–AppleLeadingCharge5010020030040050060070020052006200720082009E2010E2011E2012E2013EAnnualUnitShipments(MM)DesktopPCsNotebookPCsSmartphonesSmartphonePCShipmentsWithin2Years,Global–ImpliesVeryRapidEvolutionofInternetAccessGlobalUnitShipmentsofDesktopPCs+NotebookPCsvs.Smartphones,2005–2013E2012E:InflectionPointSmartphonesTotalPCsNote:NotebookPCsincludeNetbooks.Source:IDC,Gartner,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.6610213851719311915414015014914014010890673404080120160200520062007200820092010E2011E2012E2013ENorthAmericaFeaturePhone&SmartphoneUnitShipments(MM)SmartphoneShipmentsFeaturePhoneShipmentsSmartphoneFeaturePhoneShipmentsWithin1Year,N.Amer.–ImpliesVeryRapidEvolutionofInternetAccessNorthAmericaUnitShipmentsofSmartphonesvs.FeaturePhones,2005–2013ESource:EhudGelblum,MorganStanleyResearch.7MinicomputerPCDesktopInternetMobileInternetMainframe1960197019801990200020102020Devices/Users(MMinLogScale)NewComputingCycles–10xMoreDevicesNew=ReduceUsageFrictionViaBetterProcessingPower+ImprovedUserInterface+SmallerFormFactor+LowerPrices+ExpandedServices1MM+Units100MM+Units10B+Units???10MM+UnitsIncreasingIntegrationCarElectronicsGPS,ABS,A/VMobileVideoHomeEntertainmentGamesMP3WirelessHomeAppliancesCellphone/PDASmartphoneKindleTabletComputingGrowthDriversOverTime,1960–2020ENote:PCinstalledbasereached100MMin1993,cellphone/Internetusersreached1Bin2002/2005respectively;Source:ITU,MarkLipacis,MorganStanleyResearch.1B+Units/Users110100100010,000100,0001,000,000MorethanJustPhonesiPad82734306881,0551,5031,9282,3482,7768%11%15%21%27%33%38%43%01,0002,0003,0004,000200720082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E3G+Users(MM)0%9%18%27%36%45%3G+Penetration(%)3G+Users3GPenetration3G=AKeytoSuccessofMobileInternet–2010E‘Mainstream’InflectionPoint,3GPenetration20%Note:3G+technologiesincludeWCDMA,HSPA,TD-SCDMA,1xEV-DO,LTEandWiMax.Source:OvumEstimates,MorganStanleyResearch.2010E:InflectionPoint3G+PenetrationReachesSweetSpotGlobal3G+Subscribers&Penetration,2007–2014E9WirelessOptionsGrowingRapidly–CreatingBroad-BasedWirelessInfrastructureGPS–421MM+chipsetssoldin2008E,+57%Y/Y;CellPhones/PDAs=60%ofGPSshipments.3G–485MMglobalusers,+46%Y/YinCQ2,11%mobileuserpenetration,risingto44%by2013E…Japan/W.Europe/USAalready30%penetration.Wi-Fi–319MMchipsetssoldin2008E,+42%Y/Ywith862MMinstalledbase;estimate60%ofiPhone/iTouchusagemaybeonWi-Fi,providingacrucial(and~10xfaster)offloadtostressed3Gnetworks.Bluetooth–1.3BBluetooth-enabledunitsshippedin2008,+45%Y/Y;2B+Bluetoothdevicesinuse.Source:3GsubscribersdataperInforma,Wi-FiusageestimatesperAdMob,Wi-FishipmentsbyWi-FiAlliance;installedbaseperiSuppli,assuming4-yrreplacementcycle;BluetoothshipmentperiSuppli,installedbaseperTheBluetoothSpecialInterestGroup;GPSshipmentperFutureHorizons.Picturesources:Howstuffworks.com,BoyGeniusReport,Cisco,Letsbuy.com.MobileApps&MobileSearch–UsersofBothUp2xY/Y…Search=MostUsedBrowserFeature,USA10183818380102030404/094/10#ofUSASmartphoneUsersWhoHaveUsedMobileApps/MobileBrowsers(MM)MobileAppUsersMobileBrowserUsers2xNumberofUSASmartphoneApp&BrowserUsers4/09vs.4/10Source:comScore.48%0%20%40%60%OnlineRetailClassifiedsGeneralReferenceBankAccountsMovieInfoSportsInfoNewsSocialNetworkingSearch%ofMobileBrowserUsersWhoHaveDonetheFollowingActivities,4/10MobileAppUsageRamp=Unprecedented22121054701020304050iPhone/iTouchAndroidiPadBlackBerryNokiaAppsAvailable200K50K3K5K7KAppsDownloaded4B+400MM12MM+----InstalledBase86MM10MM+2MM20MM*50-70MM*LaunchDate7/0810/084/104/095/09AppsDownloadedperUse