数字技术发展：挑战与前景

DiscussionPapersareaseriesofmanuscriptsintheirdraftform.Theyarenotintendedforcirculationordistributionexceptasindicatedbytheauthor.ForthatreasonDiscussionPapersmaynotbereproducedordistributedwithoutthewrittenconsentoftheauthor.CIRJE-F-152DigitalDevelopment:ChallengesandProspectsHaiderA.KhanUniversityofDenver/CIRJE,TheUniversityofTokyoMay2002DigitalDevelopment:ChallengesandProspectsHaiderA.KhanGSISUniversityofDenverDenver,[e-mail],CIRJE,GraduateSchoolofEconomicsUniversityofTokyo,Tokyo,JapanTel.03-5841-5642Fax[phone]Revised,March2002April,2002AbstractInthefastdevelopingdigitaltechnologicalrevolutioneventhenewlyindustrializedeconomies(theNIEs)havefoundithardtocatchupandmaintainthepacerequiredfornotfallingbehind.Theso-calleddevelopingeconomiesareclearlyatagreatdisadvantageinsuchafastpacedtechnologicalrace.Thusthereisadigitaldividethatisgrowingandthroughacumulativecausationthegapwillwidenfurtherunlesscoordinatedactionistaken.Thispaperdiscussessomeofthemostimportanteconomicissuesconceptuallyandofferssomemodestpolicyadvice.ThebasicproblemofadoptionofanewtechnologysystemsuchastheICT(informationandcommunicationstechnologies)isexploredviatheSchumpeterianconceptofcreativedestructioninanonlinear,path-dependentworld.Byinvestingstrategicallyinphysical,intellectualandotherformsofhumancapitaleconomiesmaybeabletoforgeapathnotonlyintheICTsectors,butalsocreateinnovationsystemsoftheirown.Undertheemerginggloballycompetitivemarketenvironmentthiswillbethebestwaytocompetedynamically.However,creatingcomparativeadvantageinthiswayrequirescapabilitiesthatmanydevelopingcountrieslackatthemoment.Creativepolicyinterventionswithamixofmarketpromotion,goodgovernance,relativeopenness,andpromotionofsustainabledevelopmentinanequitablemannerarenecessaryifthedevelopingeconomiesarenottobeleftfarbehind.1.Introduction:Thedigitalagehasbeenheraldedwithgreatfanfare.However,ifhyberbolesaresetasideandasoberassessmentismade,wefindthebeginningsofatechnologicalrevolutionthathasalreadycreatedmuchuncertaintyandahugeamountofpersonalwealth.Sofarthebenefitshavealsobeenlargelyconfinedtothedevelopedcountries.Eventhenewlyindustrializedeconomies(theNIEs)havefoundithardtocatchupandmaintainthepacerequiredfornotfallingbehind.Theso-calleddevelopingeconomiesareclearlyatagreatdisadvantageinsuchafastpacedtechnologicalrace.Thusthereisadigitaldividethatisgrowingandthroughacumulativecausationthegapwillwidenfurtherunlesscoordinatedactionistaken.Thispaperwilldiscusssomeofthemostimportanteconomicissuesconceptuallyandoffersomemodestpolicyadvice.Thefieldisvastandtheissuesarecomplex.Therefore,eventhismodestagendamaybetooambitiousforashortpaper.Specifically,inthenextsection,thebasicproblemofadoptionofanewtechnologysystemsuchastheICT(informationandcommunicationstechnologies)isexploredviatheSchumpeterianconceptofcreativedestruction.Section3sketchesoutthelinksbetweentheICTsectors,innovation,growthanddevelopment.Section4brieflyoutlinessomespecialeconomicfeaturesrelatedtotheICTs.Mostimportantamongthesearetheincreasingreturnstoscale,networkexternalitiesandadisequilibriumprocessthatcanresultinmultiplepossibleequilibriaattheend.Section5isthemostsubstantivepartofthepaper.Hereinnovationasapositivefeedbackloopprocessisstudiedfurther,andacasestudyofsuchprocessispresented.TheSouthKoreancasestudyisadetailedinvestigationatbothmicroandmacrolevelsoftherequirementsofaninnovationsystemthatcanincludeICTsasanintegralpart.Thestudyleadstowardsarecognitionofthelimitsofpurelynationaleffortsandsuggeststhatasupranationalinstitutionalstructurebasedontheprincipleofregionalcooperationmaybetheoptimalstrategyforthedevelopingeconomies.2.ICTsandCreativeDestruction:Writinginanotherera,JosephSchumpeterseemstohavebeenquiteprescientintermsofdescribingtheessenceofwhatishappeninggloballytoday.InhisbookCapitalism,SocialismandDemocracy,heaverred:Thefundamentalimpulsethatsetsandkeepsthecapitalistengineinmotioncomesfromthenewconsumers’goods,thenewmethodsofproductionortransportation,thenewmarkets,....(Thisprocess)incessantlyrevolutionizestheeconomicstructurefromwithin,incessantlydestroyingtheoldone,incessantlycreatinganewone.ThisprocessofCreativeDestructionistheessentialfactaboutcapitalism.1TheICTrevolutioninprogresstodayisindeedaSchumpeterianprocessofcreativedestruction.Theessenceofcapitalisminthisview,istheconstantrevolutionizingoftheeconomicstructurefromwithin.Marxhadmadeasimilarobservationabouttheendogenousnatureoftechnicalchange(Marx,1867,1945).AghionandHowitt(1992)haveproposedamodelofcreativedestructionbytreatingtheinnovationprocessasintenseinter-firmrivalry,asinthepatent-raceliterature.Thepresentapproachassumes,followingSchumpeter,andAghionandHowitt,thatinnovationinspecificfirmscanhaveeconomy-wideeffects.Theexpectedgrowthrateoftheeconomydependsontheeconomy-wideamountofresearch;buttheprocessofthisgrowth,preciselybecauseresearchleadstothedevelopmentofnewproductsandprocesses,ischaracterizedbycreativedestruction.TherelationshipbetweenR&Dandgrowthisthereforebothintimateandcomplex.Aneconom