搜索
11999121020001NewdevelopmentofNewClassicalMacroeconomicsF091.3NewClassicalMacroeconomicsKeynesianRationalExpectationMarketClearingNaturalRateHypothesisMonetaryBusinessCycleTheoryRealBusinessCycleTheoryRicardoEqualPropositionsOptimalPoliciesandTimeInconsistencyGameTheory.2......34AbstractAfterWorldWar,Keynesianhadbeenthemain-streameconomicsinWesternMacroeconomic.Keynesianwasalsothereferencetomake5Macroeconomicpolicyinwesterncountry.Till1970S,KeynesianwascriticizedbytheotherschoolsandlostitsdominantpositionbecauseKeynesianwaslackoffoundationtheoreticallyandKeynesiancouldnotexplainwhydullinflationwaspervasiveatthattimepractically.Insuchcircumstance,NewClassicalMacroeconomicsstoodout,NowNewClassicalMacroeconomicsisoneofthemain-streamschoolinthewesternMacroeconomics.ThisarticlewillsetforththenewdevelopmentofNewClassicalMacroeconomics,thenanalyzeandcommentonitstheory,pointoutitsshortcomingsanddrawlessonsfromit,startingwiththeemergingandtheprevioustheoryofNewClassicalMacroeconomics.Thearticlewillconsiderallthethingsinthreeparts.Partone:TheemergingandtheprevioustheoryofNewClassicalMacroeconomicsThispartanalyzedthereasonofemerging,basicassumptionandtheprevioustheoryofNewClassicalMacroeconomics.NewClassicalMacroeconomicsarosefromRationalExpectationin1970S,throughcriticofKeynesianandabsorptionofMonetaristwhenKeynesianwasintroubletheoreticallyandpractically.In1980S,RationalExpectationcouldnothighlightthetheoreticalcharacteristicsandwasrenamedNewClassicalMacroeconomics.ThemainrepresentativeswereR.LucasT.JSargentN.WallaceR.BarroA.PrescottF.Kydlond.NewClassicalMacroeconomicsputforwarditsprevioustheoryMonetaryBusinessCycleTheorybasedonRationalExpectation,MarketClearingandNaturalRateHypothesis.MonetaryBusinessCycleTheorythoughtthatmonetaryfactorwasthemainreasonofeconomicfluctuations.Sotheresultwas:noneofthegovernmentalinterferencewasefficientintheeventofrationalexpectation.Whenthetheorywasputforward,westscholarstriedtotestilyanddoubtedthetheory.Becauseoftheshortcomingstheoreticallyandthelackofsupportpractically,inthelate1980S,NewClassicalMacroeconomistsbegantoexplaintheeconomicfluctuationusingrealfactorsandstudiedthefinancialpolicytimeconsistencyofthepolicy,whichimprovethenewdevelopmentofNewClassicalMacroeconomics.6Parttwo:NewdevelopmentofNewClassicalMacroeconomicsThispartconsideredthenewdevelopmentofNewClassicalMacroeconomicsafter1980Sfromthreeaspects.First,Explaintheoriginoftheeconomicfluctuationusingrealfactorsregardlessofmonetaryfactor.InthedevelopmentofNewClassicalMacroeconomicstheessentialchargewas:MonetaryBusinessCycleTheorywasreplacedbyRealBusinessCycleTheory.RealBusinessCycleTheorythoughtthatrealfactorscausedtheeconomicfluctuations.RealBusinessCycleTheorywasdifferentfromMonetaryBusinessCycleTheoryinmonetaryneutrality,transfersystemandmethodology.ThoughtherewasseriousshortcomingintheframeworkofRealBusinessCycleTheory,Westscholarsthoughtthatitprovidedthenewwaysandtechnicaltoolsinmacroeconomicsanalysis.Second,ifweanalyzethefinancialpolicyaccordingtoRicardosequalpropositions,then,governmentfinancialpolicywasinefficientaswellasgovernmentalmonetarypolicy.R.Barrousedtherationalpersonassumption,retrievedsomeofRicardospropositions,thoughtthatlevyingtaxandborrowingmoneywereequal,sopublicdebtseffectwasneutral.Third,deniedthefeasibilityofoptimalpolicies,usingGameTheorytostudythegovernmentalbehavior.In1980S,NewClassicalMacroeconomicsappliedGameTheorytomacroeconomicsanalysis,analyzedtheoptimalpolicyandtimeinconsistency,andproveditforthefirsttime.Thenputforwardthemethodofresolutiondependingonthecreditpowerofgovernment.PartthreeCommentonNewClassicalMacroeconomics7ThemainadvantageofNewClassicalMacroeconomicswasinthatitmaintainedtheconsistencyofMicroeconomicsandMacroeconomicsandprovidednewtheoreticalfoundationforanalysisofmacroeconomicsproblems.ThepartcommentedonNewClassicalMacroeconomicsfromfouraspects.NewClassicalMacroeconomicskeptrationalpersonassumption.Emphasizedthatexpectationplayedanimportantroleineconomicactivities.RationalExpectationassumptionmadethebigchargeinMacroeconomictheoryresearch,exertedthesignificanteffectonthemakingeconomicpolicy.But,RationalExpectationwaslackofsupportevidenceinpractice.RationalExpectationemphasizingexpectationisinstructiveforChineseeconomicconstructionandreform.ThebasicshortcomingofMonetaryBusinessCycleTheorywasitthoughtthatthecyclederivedfromexpectationfalse,deniedthatCapitalismbasiccontradictionwasthereasonofcrisis.While,RealBusinessCycleTheorytriedtoexplaintheeconomicfluctuationusingrealfactor,whichmadeitdifferentfromothertheory.But,thetransfersystemdesignedwasatheoreticalfabrication.ThemeritofRealBusinessCycleTheoryliedinitsresearchmethodwhichMacroeconomicscouldbenefitfromforalongtime.AboutRicardosequalpropositions.Westscholarscriticizeditandthoughtitimpossible.However,thepropositionsandtheargumentarisesfromBarrosarticlegaveusinspiration.NewClassicalMacroeconomicssetforththeinefficientpolicy,thisincreasedtheunderstandingofthemacroeconomicpolicytosomeextent.NewClassicalMacroeconomicsintroduced