润滑油基础油发展趋势及转变报告SK英文版

FocusedonGroupIIIBaseOilIntroductionBackgroundsforGroupIIIBaseOilPastandPresentofGroupIIIBaseOilFuture(focusedonMerchantMarket)PriceOverviewSummaryandIssuesConclusionNo.1energy&chemicalcompanyinKorea–largestrefiningcapacity(1.1MilB/D),marketshareandmarketingnetworkinKoreaLeadingplayerinothermajorenergysectorinKorea–E&P,Refining&Marketing,Coal,CityGas&LubricantWorldlargestGroupIIIbaseoilmanufacturer–Hydro-Cracked/IDW/HydroTreatingProcess–TotalCapacity950,000MT/Y–370,000MT/Ynewcapacityfrommid2008SKCorp.SKTelecomSKNetworksOtherSubsidiariesSKHoldingsHoldingCompanySKTelecomSKNetworksSKEnergyOperatingCompanyOtherSubsidiaries•MixedCorporateStructurewithBusinesses&InvestmentSecurities•SplittingintoaHoldingCompanyandanOperatingCompanySource:SKCorp.IRDept.CurrentStructureHoldingCompanyStructureAPICategoryViscosityIndexSaturates(%)Sulfur(%)GroupI80-12090＞0.03GroupII80-120≥90≤0.03GroupIVPAOGroupVAllothersDefinition•InherentHighViscosityIndex•ExcellentLowTemperaturePerformance•LowVolatility,HighFlashPoint•ExcellentThermalandOxidativestability※Canbemarketedas‘Synthetic’FeaturesItemASTMMethodYUBASE4YUBASE6YUBASE8KV@40°C,cStD44519.636.947.0KV@100°C,cStD4454.256.467.60ViscosityIndexD2270123130128NOACKVolatility,wt%D580014.77.15.0PourPoint,°CD92-15-12-12FlashPoint,°CD97230240260YUBASEProperties2000GroupIIIGroupIIGroupI25,00020,00015,00010,0005,00030,000[KMT]20054%2%20107~8%201510~%Source:LubesnGrease,2006IntroductionBackgroundsforGroupIIIBaseOilPastandPresentofGroupIIIBaseOilFuture(focusedonMerchantMarket)PriceOverviewSummaryandIssuesConclusionLegislationConsumersOEMsLubricantManufacturersGlobalEconomy•VeryLowSulfur(≤0.03%)•VeryHighViscosityIndex(120+)•ExcellentLowTemperaturePerformance•LowVolatility•HighFlashPoint•ExcellentThermalandOxidativestability※Canbemarketedas‘Synthetic’FeaturesGroupIIIBaseOilsIntroductionBackgroundsforGroupIIIBaseOilPastandPresentofGroupIIIBaseOilFuture(focusedonMerchantMarket)PriceOverviewSummaryConclusion1st2nd3rd(e)3rd(e)2nd1stSmallcapacityforowncaptiveuseUnaccustomedproductDoubtsoninvestmentsEconomicsofscaleOver-qualifiedqualityLackofcommercialformulation3rd(e)2nd1stDemandhasbeenwellgrownTosubstitutePAOAscorrectionfluidblendedwithGroupIbaseoilsFormulationstartedtobloomCommonlyacknowledged1st3rd(e)2ndFormulationdevelopmentacceleratedDemandislargerthanSupplyinashorttermDemanddiffersbygradesInterestsinfutureinvestmentsIntroductionBackgroundsforGroupIIIBaseOilPastandPresentofGroupIIIBaseOilFuture(focusedonMerchantMarket)PriceOverviewSummaryConclusionS-OilPetronasNeste+5.5KBD+7.5KBDMeetthedemanddeficitBut,suddenoversupply?Then,severecompetitionEvenagainstGroupI/II/II+?QualityDifferentiationGSCaltex+3KBD+7.7KBDAcceleratingtechnicalchangesIncreasingcommercialdemandsMarketexpansionS-OilPetronasGSCaltexNesteGTLGTLGTLbaseoilsemerge?GroupIII+MerchantmarketGTLvs.GroupIII?DestinyofGroupIV&V?GTLS-OilPetronasNesteGSCaltex?+00KBD+0KBD+0KBDIntroductionBackgroundsforGroupIIIBaseOilPastandPresentofGroupIIIBaseOilFuture(focusedonMerchantMarket)PriceOverviewSummaryConclusion*Source:SKCorp,ICIS-LORReport1003005007009001,1001,300DieselDUBAIWTIGroupIIIPosting(US)GroupII+Posting(US)GroupI(S’pore)GroupIPosting(US)GroupI(NWE)GroupI(Asia)GroupI(Europe)[USD/MT]JulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMay‘04‘05‘06‘071002003004005006007008009001,000DieselDUBAIWTIGroupI(S’pore)GroupI(NWE)GroupI(Asia)GroupI(Europe)[USD/MT]CrudeoilandfuelpriceshaveincreaseddramaticallyShortsupplyoffuels&baseoilsCompetitiononProductionBaseOilvs.FuelConcernsonpricingmechanismTimeLaggingIssue*Source:SKCorp,ICIS-LORReportJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMay‘04‘05‘06‘07GroupIIIPosting(US)GroupII+Posting(US)GroupIPosting(US)*Source:SKCorp,ICIS-LORReportMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMay‘06‘07DieselDUBAIWTIGroupI(S’pore)GroupI(NWE)GroupI(Asia)GroupI(Europe)GroupIIIPosting(US)GroupII+Posting(US)GroupIPosting(US)Crudeoil/fuelpricesfluctuatedBaseoilpricesincreasedcontinuouslyShortsupplyofbaseoilsPricingmechanismwaschangedEnjoyedhughmarginsever*Source:SKCorp,ICIS-LORReport1003005007009001,1001,300DieselDUBAIWTIGroupI(S’pore)GroupI(NWE)GroupI(Asia)GroupI(Europe)[USD/MT]Crudeoil/fuelpricesincreasedBaseoilpriceshavedecreasedDomestic&ExportpricesdifferBalanceorSurplusMarginsgetsqueezedGroupIIIPosting(US)GroupII+Posting(US)GroupIPosting(US)JulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMay‘04‘05‘06‘07DemandSpecificationchangesOpportunitycostCompetitivedynamicsRawMaterialCostsCompetitionagainstfuelsSupplyCostValueNewproductionTurnaroundDisastersEconomicgrowthCar/IndustrialmarketBaseOilPrices050100150200250300350GroupIIIPremiumGroupII+Premium[USD/MT]*Source:SKCorp,ICIS-LORReportJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMay‘04‘05‘06‘07Importanceof‘RawMaterialprice’hasbeenincreased–BaseOilandAdditivepriceforLubeblenders–FeedstockpriceforBaseOilManufacturersPricingmechanismgetdiversified–Fixedpricevs.Spotpricingvs.UsingpriceindicatorsPriceIndicatingSystem–PricesofCrud