现代有轨电车运营成本测算及影响因素分析

专业硕士学位论文现代有轨电车运营成本测算及影响因素分析EstimationofOperationalCostandAnalysisofInfluentialFactorsonModerntrams作者：导师：北京交通大学2014年5月北京交通大学专业硕士学位论文中文摘要ii中文摘要摘要：随着以汽车为主导的交通模式所带来的交通拥堵、能源危机、环境污染等问题日益严峻，发展大容量公共交通为主导的城市交通系统受到各大城市的重视。具有运量适中、投资较低、节能环保及运营组织灵活等优点的有轨电车受到很多城市的青睐。有轨电车的运营成本影响政府及企业对有轨电车的选择和运营，因此，研究有轨电车的运营成本构成及测算方法，对有轨电车的科学发展具有重要的借鉴意义。本文对现代有轨电车在国内外的运营组织情况进行研究，分析了有轨电车在不同城市的功能定位和财务经营情况，提出了有轨电车运营成本的测算模型并进行实例验证，最后对成本因素进行灵敏度分析，本文的主要工作和结论如下：(1)分析有轨电车的特性，将有轨电车与其他公共交通方式在技术参数、运营成本和服务指标上进行对比，得到有轨电车的建设成本较低、运营组织灵活、发展潜力较大的结论。分析国内外典型城市有轨电车的运营组织、功能定位、补贴财政等，得到财务经营状况主要受运营主体、功能定位影响的结论，例如财务经营比较成功的香港、旧金山、巴黎均是政府委托企业运营，运行组织灵活、票制多样，客运量较高，需要补贴较少，甚至能够盈利。(2)结合我国有轨电车的特点，把运营成本分为可变成本和固定成本，细化了牵引能耗费用和维修费用，可变成本包括牵引电力消耗费用和动车组维修费用，固定成本包括人员工资福利、固定设备维护维修费用、车站动力照明费用、综合管理费用和其他费用，提出了运营成本测算模型。并以上海张江线为案例，测算得到年运营成本为3041.26万元，单位人次运营成本为11.90元；与国内外其他线路的运营成本进行比较，得到运营成本与客运量有关，单位客运量运营成本与客运量、服务水平、人工成本等因素有关的结论。建议张江线借鉴爱丁堡1a线的灵活运行策略来降低运营成本，借鉴其联合公交票制来吸引客流，增加运营收入。(3)对有轨电车运营成本的构成因素进行灵敏度分析，分别研究一个、多个因素的变化对运营成本的影响程度，包括客运量、车辆运用、技术速度、劳动生产率等因素。研究得到客运量提高20%时，年运营成本提高了0.93%，影响较小；单位客运量运营成本降低了15.89%，影响较大。建议客运量提高时，适当提高发车单元数和技术速度，增强有轨电车的竞争力；运输能力过剩时，可以适当缩减发车频率、降低运行速度来降低运营成本。关键词：城市公共交通；城市轨道交通；有轨电车；运营成本；灵敏度分析分类号：U482.1UDC：625.5北京交通大学专业硕士学位论文ABSTRACTiiiABSTRACTABSTRACT：Withthedailydeteriorationoftrafficcongestion,energycrisisandenvironmentalpollutionresultedbythetrafficpatternorientedbycars,urbantrafficsystemdominatedbymassivepublictraffichasdrewattentioninlargecities.Featuredbyadvantageslikemoderatevolume,lowinvestment,energyconservation,protectionofenvironmentandagileorganization,tramhasreceivedgracesinmanycities.Theoperationalcostaffectsthegovernmentandcompany’schoiceandapplicationtotram,soitisquiteofreferenceforthedevelopmenttostudyonorganization,costcompositionanditsmeasurementoftram.Thispapersummarizedtheorganizationoftramdomesticallyandoverseas,clarifieditsfunctionalorientationandfinancialoperationindifferentcities,proposedameasurementmodelofoperationalcostwithcasesandfinalizedwithsensitivityanalysisoncostfactors.Themainworkandconclusionofthispapercomprisessectionsaslisted:(1)Thispaperanalyzedthecharacteristicsoftramandmadecomparisonbetweentramandotherpublictrafficontechnicalparameters,operationalcostandserviceindex.,whichtellstram’sconstructioncostislessandismoreflexiblealsomorepotential.Astepfurther,thispaperalsoanalyzedtheoperationalmodeandfinancialconditionoftramdomesticallyandoverseasandconcludedthatfinancialconditionismainlyeffectedbyoperationalsubjectandfunctionalorientation,suchastramsinHongKong,SanFransiscoandParisareoperatedbycompanieshiredbygovernment,sotheorganizationandtickedsaremorevarious,whichattractsmorepassengersandmoreincome,leadingtolesssubsidyandevencanmoreprobits.(2)Thispaperdifferedoperationalcostintofixedcostandvariablecostanddissectedinfluentialfactorsoftractionenergyconsumptionandmaintenancecostwithmeasurementformulaconcerningthecharacteristicsofdomestictram.InthecaseofZhangjianglineinShanghai,whoseannualoperationalcostis30.41millionyuan,and11.90yuaneachpersonaltrip,thispapercontrastedthemeasurementwithoverseaslinestofindthatoperationalcostwasrelatedtoridershipandoperationalcostperunittoridership,serviceindexandlaborcost.ThispapersuggestsZhangjianglinetolearnfromtheEdinburgh1alineontheflexibleorganizationfordecreasingoperationalcost,andtolearnitsbus-uniontickedtoattractmorepassengers,leadingtomoreincome.北京交通大学专业硕士学位论文ABSTRACTiv(3)Thispaperconductedsensitivityanalysisonstructuralfactorsofoperationalcostwhichrevealedthecorrespondingresponsetothechangeofonefactorormoreincludingridership,vehicleusage,technicalvelocity,laborefficiency,whichconcludedthata20%increaseofridershiprarelyrosetheoperationalcostby0.93%whilesharplyreducedoperationalcostperunitby15.89%.Consequently,thispaperrecommendedproperraiseofunitdispatchandtechnicalvelocityandenhancementofcompetitivenessoftramincaseoflargeridershipwhiletheothersideincaseofdeficitofridership.KEYWORDS：Urbanpublictransport;urbanrailtransit;tram;operationalcosts;sensitivityanalysisCLASSNO：U482.1UDC：625.5北京交通大学专业硕士学位论文目录v目录中文摘要...................................................................................................................iiABSTRACT.............................................................................................................iii1绪论.......................................................................................................................71.1研究背景与意义...................................................................................71.2国内外研究现状...................................................................................91.3论文框架及主要内容.........................................................................151.3.1论文框架......................................................................................151.3.2主要研究内容..............................................................................162现代有轨电车的发展现状.................................................................................182.1现代有轨电车的特性.........................................................................182.1.1与其他公共交