rise+of+the+robots

RLeadersRiseoftherobotsPrepareforarobotinvasion.ItwillchangethewaypeoplethinkabouttechnologyTheEconomistMarch29th201413OBOTScameintotheworldasaliterarydevicewherebythewritersandfilm-makersoftheearly20thcenturycouldexploretheirhopesandfearsabouttechnology,astheeraoftheautomobile,telephoneandaeroplanepickedupitsrecklessjazz-agespeed.FromFritzLang’s“Metropolis”andIsaacAsi-mov’s“I,Robot”to“WALL-E”andthe“Terminator”films,andincountlessiterationsinbetween,theyhavesucceededadmi-rablyintheirtask.Sincemovingfromthepageandscreentoreallife,robotshavebeenamilddisappointment.Theydosomethingsthathumanscannotdothemselves,likeexploringMars,andahostofthingspeopledonotmuchwanttodo,likedealingwithun-explodedbombsorvacuumingfloors(therearearound10mrobotvacuumcleanerswanderingthecarpetsoftheworld).Andtheyareveryusefulinbitsofmanufacturing.Butreliablerobots—especiallyonesrequiredtoworkbeyondthesafetycagesofafactoryfloor—haveprovedhardtomake,androbotsarestillprettystupid.Soalthoughtheyfascinatepeople,theyhavenotyetmademuchofamarkontheworld.Thatseemsabouttochange.Theexponentialgrowthinthepowerofsiliconchips,digitalsensorsandhigh-bandwidthcommunicationsimprovesrobotsjustasitimprovesallsortsofotherproducts.And,asourspecialreportthisweekex-plains,threeotherfactorsareatplay.OneisthatroboticsR&Disgettingeasier.Newsharedstan-dardsmakegoodideaseasilyportablefromonerobotplat-formtoanother.Andaccumulatedknow-howmeansthatbuildingsuchplatformsisgettingalotcheaper.ArobotlikeRe-thinkRobotics’sBaxter,withtwoarmsandaremarkablyeasy,intuitiveprogramminginterface,wouldhavebeenbarelycon-ceivabletenyearsago.Nowyoucanbuyonefor$25,000.C3IPOAsecondfactorisinvestment.Thebiggestrobotnewsof2013wasthatGoogleboughteightpromisingrobotstartups.Richandwellled(byAndyRubin,whomastermindedtheAndroidoperatingsystem)andwithaccesstoworld-beatingexpertiseincloudcomputingandartificialintelligence,bothhighlyrele-vant,Google’srobotprogrammepromisesthepossibilityofsomethingspectacular—thoughnooneoutsidethecompanyknowswhatthatmightbe.Amazon,too,isbettingonrobots,bothtoautomateitswarehousesand,morespeculatively,tomakedeliveriesbydrone.InSouthKoreaandelsewherecom-paniesaremovingrobottechnologytonewareasofmanufac-turing,andeyeingservices.Venturecapitalistsseeamuchbet-terchanceofaprofitableexitfromaroboticsstartupthantheyusedto.Thethirdfactorisimagination.Inthepastfewyears,clevercompanieshaveseenwaystomakerobotsworkasgripsandgaffersonfilmsets(“Gravity”couldnothavebeenshotwith-outrobotsmovingthecamerasandlights)andpanelinstallersatsolar-powerplants.Morepeoplewillgrasphowaroboticat-tributesuchashighprecisionorfastreactionsorindependentlocomotioncanbeintegratedintoaprofitablebusiness;even-tuallysomeofthemwillbuildmassmarkets.Aerialrobots—drones—maybeinthevanguardhere.Theywillletfarmerstendtheircropsinnewways,givecitizens,journalistsandbroadcastersnewperspectivesoneventsbigandsmall(seepage64),monitortrafficandfires,lookforinfrastructureinneedofrepairandmuchmorebesides.Asconsumersandcitizens,peoplewillbenefitgreatlyfromtheriseoftherobots.Whethertheywillasworkersislessclear,fortherobots’growingcompetencemaymakesomehumanlabourredundant.Aetheon’sTugs,forinstance,whichtakehospitaltrolleyswheretheyareneeded,arereadytotakeovermuchoftheworkthatportersdotoday.Kiva’swarehousero-botsmakeitpossibleforAmazontosendoutmoreparcelswithfewerworkers.Driverlesscarscoulddisplacethemillionsofpeopleemployedbehindthewheeltoday.Justasemploy-mentinagriculture,whichusedtoprovidealmostallthejobsinthepre-modernera,nowaccountsforonly2%ofrich-worldemploymentsojobsintoday’smanufacturingandservicesin-dustriesmaybeforcedtoretreatbeforethemarchofthero-bots.Whetherhumanitywillfindnewwaysofusingitsla-bour,orthefuturewillbegivenovertoforcedleisure,isamatterofmuchworrieddebateamongeconomists.Eitherway,robotswillprobablygetthecreditorblame.InvisibleandotherwiseRoboticprowesswilltosomeextentbetakenforgranted.Itwillbeinthenatureofcarstodrivethemselves,offloorstobecleanandofsuppliestomovearoundhospitalsandoffices;theroboticunderpinningofsuchthingswillbeinvisible.Butro-botswillnotjustanimatetheinanimateenvironment.Theywillinhabititalongsidetheirmasters,fulfillingallsortsofneeds.Some,likeBaxter,willhelpmakeandmovethings,somewillprovidecare,somejustcomfortorcompanionship.AJapaneserobotresemblingababyseal,whichrespondsami-ablytostrokingandcandistinguishvoices,seemstohelpel-derlypatientswithdementia.Themorevisiblerobotsare,thebettertheycanhelphu-manitydiscussquestionslikethosefirstposedinfiction.Isitnecessarythatwarsalwaysbefoughtbypeoplewhocanfeelpityandofferclemency,andyetwhocanalsobecruelbeyondalltacticalrequirements?(AlreadyAmericaisarguingaboutwhetherdronepilotsdeservemedals—seepage33.)Doesitmatterifthelastkindnessesapersonfeelsarefromamachine?Whatdignifieshumanendeavourifthelabourofmost,orall,humansbecomessurplustorequirements?People,companiesandgovernmentsfindithardtodiscusstheultimategoalsoftechnologicalchangeintheabstract.ThegreatinsightofAsimovetalwasthatitiseasiertoasksuchquestionswhenthetechnologyispersonified:whenyoucanlookitintheface.Lik