省域尺度的区域发展潜力评价方法研究

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181,1,2,1,3(1.,200062;2.,201100;3.,6500091):,,,,:;;;:F127:A:1003-4161(2009)03-0018-061.[1];;,,[2-12],[13],,,,,,2.2.1:[14](1),,,;,,,,,,;,,,,(2),;,,(3)19,,,,,,;,,,,,,(4),,:;;2.2,;,,,,,,,3.3.1,,,:;;3.2,,(1),:GDPGDP,13.3,,,,:(1):,,,(2):,,(3):,,;(4):,,,,,,,,,,3.43.4.1[13,15],,[1,5-7,9,12],,,2,20312:,()()(),,;,;,(),,,,,:,;,;(),,,,3.4.2,[15],,(),,1,31221()A1B1B2B3B4A2B5B6B7()B8A3B9B10B11B123.4.3,;,,,,;,,,,2030,3.4.4,,,,22,,5,5312;,(),3,;,;,,213()A1B1B2B3B4A2B5B6B7B8()A3B9B10B11B124.4.1(benchmarking)SWOT(),44.2,,(HierarchicalCluster),:,,,,,,(),SPSS13.0forWindows,,5.,,3125,,,,4[17-19],,[20,21]():();;;;()(),,,,[22]SWOTSWOT,1950s,(strength)(weak2ness)(opportunity)(threat),1990s,[23]:(strength)(weakness);(opportunity)(threats);SWOT,,,SWOT,;SWOT,,[1,5-7,12,24]:,,,,,SWOT,--,;Delphi,:[1,5-7,12,17-24]222,(GDP)(GDP)55,,:[]=f([GDP],[GDP])=[GDP]K([GDP]);[GDP]=[GDP]/[];[GDP]=([GDP2005]/[GDP2000])1/5-1;[GDP]2005GDP;[GDP]5GDPK([GDP]),GDPGIS,K([GDP]),,,,,,,,:[]=f([],[])=[]d([]);[]=[2005]/[];[]=[2000]/[2000]100%();[2005],();[2000]d([]),GIS,d([]),,,,:[]=f([],[],[]),;[]=[]/[];[]=[];[]=[],GIS,2008[16],,,,FDI,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,(FDI)()FDI,,(),,,,,,23:,20-30,,,,:[1],2007[M].:,2007.[2]RokiIwahashi.Atheoreticalassessmentofregionaldevelopmenteffectsonthedemandforgeneraleducation[J].EconomicsofEducationRe2view,2007,Vol.26,No.3,pp387-394.[3]BasisoR.,MaltagliatiS.,VannuccniL.PotentialtiesandDevelop2mentofRenewableEnergySourcesinanIntegratedRegionalSystem:TUS2CANY[J].RenewableEnergy,1999,Vol.16,No.1-4,pp1167-1173.[4]JakesP.J.,SchlichtingC.,Anderson.H.D.Aframeworkforprofi2lingalakesriparianareadevelopmentpotential[J].JournalofEnvironmen2talManagement,2003,Vol.69,No.4,pp391-400.[5],,.[J].(),2002,4(3):172-174.[6],,[J],,2003,(3):44-47.[7],,.[J].(),2004,29(2):305-309.[8].[M].:,2003.[9],.[J].,1999,13(S):13-16.[10],,.[J].,2006,(5):10-12.[11].[J].,2003,(5):22-26.[12].[J].,2006,(2):63-64.[13].[J].,2007,62(4):339-350.[14].[D].:,2001.[15].[D].,2008.[16],,.[J].,2008,63(8):787-798.[17]HooverE.M.andFrankGiarratani.AnIntroductiontoRegionalEconomics[M].NewYork:AlfredA.Knopf,1984.[18]RichardsonH.AReviewofTechniquesforRegionalPlolicyAnaly2sis[A].InB.HigginsandD.J.Savoie.RegionalEconomicDevelopment[C].Boston:UnwinHyman,1988.[19]Bendavdava-ValAvrom.RegionalandLocalAnalysisforPracti2tioners(4th).NewYork:Praeger,1991.[20]Heikkila,EricJ.MeasuringOurProgress:SustainableCitiesIndi2cators.PaperReadatKeynoteAddressPreparedfor13thBiennialConferenceandTrainingInstitutesofAsiaandthePacific,atBangkok,Thailand,1999.[21]FloodJ.IndicatorsDevelopment:ThemesandSources.UrbanIndi2catorsforThailandWorkingPaper3.[22].[M].:,2004:66-74.[23],,.SWOT[J].,2007,31(4):53-58.[24],.[J].,2001,(3):26-29.[](1979),,,:(1976),,,,:,(1948),,,,,:(1964),,,,:[]2009-03-12(:;:)

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