科学不确定性的类型_来源及影响_徐凌

(5620063)科学不确定性的类型来源及影响徐凌(北京大学哲学系北京100871)[]N031[]A[]1002-8862(2006)03-0048-06,,,,,(not-knowing),(W.E.Wallker),/0[1]#(M.B.A.VanAsselt),/,,0[2],,(AnthonyGiddens)(UlrichBeck)/0,,DDT(),,PPA(),/0,,,,,,,:,,,;,,一科学的不确定性的来源1.,,,,,,:;;,2./-.,,-.0[3],,,/0,/,48,,0,,/0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),/,,0[4]3.,,,,,,/0,,/,,-.0;/,-.0[5]/0,,()(RichardWhitley),/()0,/0[3]4.,,,,,,,,(B.Wynne),/0,:/-.0,/(problemdefinition),,-.(-.),-.0,/0[6],,:;,;,,49,,5.,,,/0/,;/0/,,,,,,,,,,/?0,,/0,二科学的不确定性的概念及类型,/,,(S.O.Funtowicz)(J.R.Ravetz)1.(non-certainty)/0/0(uncertain-ty)(ignorance)(indeterminacy)/0,/0,,,/0,,/0(wedon.tknowwhatwedon.tknow)/0,/-.,0,,,,/0/0,/,()0/-.0,,(frame/define),[7],(socialassumption),50,,/0,,,,,,,(AlanIrwin),,,;/0,[8]2.,/0,[9],,(errorbar);;,,,,,:???,:??,/,,三科学的不确定性对政策和科学自身的影响1.,,,,,,,(),,,-,,,,(D.T.Wells):/,0[10],,,,-,,,,,51,/-0,,/0,/0,/,(technocratic),/0(speakingtruthtopower),;,2.,,,,,,,(),,(socialrobustness),(A.M.Weinberg)1972,/0,/,0,,/0,,,/0/,0,/0(decisionstakes)/,()NUSAP,/0,,/0/0,(expertise),(),/0,,:,,,,,/0/0,/,0[11],,,();,;();/0,/0,,(stake-52holder),[1]W.E.Walker,P.HarremoÄs,J.Rotmans,J.P.vanderSluijs,M.B.A.vanAsselt,P.Janssen,M.P.KrayervonKrauss,DefiningUncertainty:AConceptualBasisforUncertaintyManagementinModel-BasedDecisionSupport,IntegratedAssessment4:1,2003,pp.5~17.[2]M.B.A.VanAsselt,PerspectivesonUncertaintyandRisk,Netherlands:Kluwer.[3]M.A.Boudourides,ParticipationUnderUncertainty,PaperPresentedattheConferenceVALDOR2003:ValuesinDecisionsonRiskStockholm,Sweden,June,pp.9~13.[4]S.JasanoffandB.Wynne,ScienceandDecisionMaking,inS.RaynorandE.L.Malone(eds.),HumanChoiceandClimateChange(Vol,1):TheSocietalFramework,Ohio,USA:BattellePress,1998,pp.1~87.[5]:56,,2002[6]B.Wynne,SeasickontheThirdWave?SubvertingtheHegemonyofPropositionalism,SocialStudiesofSci-ence33:3,2003,pp.401~417.[7]B.Wynne,MaytheSheepSafelygraze?AReflexiveViewoftheExpert-layknowledgeDivide,inS.Lash,Szerszynsk,iB.andWynne,B.(eds.),Risk,EnvironmentandModernity,SAGEpublication,1996,pp.44~83.[8]Irwin,Alan,Risk,theEnvironmentandEnvironmentalKnowledges,inM.RedcliftandG.Woodgate(eds.),TheInternationalHandbookofEnvironmentalSociology,Cheltenham,UK:EdwardElgar,1997,pp.218~226.[9]S.O.Funtowicz&J.R.Ravetz,UncertaintyandQualityinScienceforPolicy,Netherlands:Kluwer,1990.[10]D.T.Wells,EnvironmentalPolicy:AGlobalPerspectivefortheTwenty-FirstCentury,NewJersey,USA:Prentice-HallInc,1996.[11]S.O.Funtowica,&J.R.Ravetz,ThreeTypesofRiskAssessmentandtheEmergenceofPost-NormalSc-ience,inKrimsky,Sheldon&Golding,Dominic(eds.),SocialTheoriesofRisk,Westport,USA,1992,pp.251~273.(责任编辑徐兰)53