基于CE风场和Yan+Meng风场的台风数值模拟与危险性分析

工学硕士学位论文基于CE风场和YanMeng风场的台风数值模拟与危险性分析NumericalSimulationandTyphoonWindHazardAnalysisBasedonCEWind-fieldModelandYanMengWind-fieldModel谢汝强哈尔滨工业大学2008年06月国内图书分类号：X43：P444国际图书分类号：624工学硕士学位论文基于CE风场和YanMeng风场的台风数值模拟与危险性分析硕士研究生：谢汝强导师：肖仪清教授申请学位：工学硕士学科、专业：防灾减灾工程及防护工程所在单位：深圳研究生院答辩日期：2008年06月授予学位单位：哈尔滨工业大学ClassifiedIndex:X43:P444U.D.C:624DissertationfortheMasterDegreeofEngineeringNumericalSimulationandTyphoonWindHazardAnalysisBasedonCEWind-fieldModelandYanMengWind-fieldModelCandidate:XieRuqiangSupervisor:Prof.XiaoYiqingAcademicDegreeAppliedfor:MasterofEngineeringSpeciality:DisasterPrevention&ReductionEngineeringAffiliation:ShenzhenGraduateSchoolDateofDefence:June,2008Degree-Conferring-Institution:HarbinInstituteofTechnology摘要摘要随着经济与社会的快速发展，我国沿海城市超高层建筑和大跨结构层出不穷，这些高层建筑与大跨结构对风荷载非常敏感，在设计中，风荷载成为主控荷载。基本风速是结构抗风设计的昀主要设计参量，基本风速的准确估计依赖于长期的准确近地风观测资料。近年来，对于台风影响区，发展了一种基于台风风场数值模拟与危险性分析的设计基本风速估计方法，可以弥补近地风观测资料不足的缺陷。本文详细阐述了YanMeng风场模型和CE风场模型与其求解方法，并结合MonteCarlo数值模拟方法分析得到了我国沿海城市广州、深圳、香港及厦门台风关键参的概率分布模型，通过随机取样，得到模拟台风系列。昀后利用台风危险性分析方法推算得到重现期为50年、100年和200年的昀大极值风速。全文共分四章，具体如下：第一章是绪论。主要介绍了课题来源、研究目的及意义，介绍了国内外相关方向发展现状，昀后给出了本文的主要研究内容。第二章是CE风场和YanMeng风场模型及其求解。详细叙述了YanMeng风场模型和CE风场模型与其求解方法，并利用台风Betty(87)、Wayne(86)和York(99)三个台风过程实测风速和风向记录对这两种台风风场模型进适应性合验证，结果表明YanMeng风场优于CE风场，能更好的模拟我国沿海台风过程。第三章是台风危险性分析方法与台风关键参数概率分布。给出了台风危险性分析过程，通过模拟圆法统计得到影响广州、香港、深圳和厦门四城市台风历史记录数据，并分析得到包括台风年发生率、台风移动方向、台风移动速度、昀大风速半径和中心气压差等台风关键参数概率分布模型。第四章是东南沿海重点城市的台风危险性分析与极值风速推断。通过MonteCarlo方法模拟大量台风参数样本，结合台风风场数值模拟得到年极值风速样本，并统计推断了广州、香港、深圳与厦门等城市的年极值风速概率分布以及重现期为50年、100年和200年的极值风速。昀后给出了本文的主要结论和相关研究工作的展望。关键词台风风场模型；数值模拟；极值风速；危险性分析；重现期I哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文AbstractWiththerapidlyeconomicdevelopmentinrecentyears,high-risebuildingsandlarge-spanstructurescomeoutendlessincoastalcityofChina.Theseultra-highbuildingsandlarge-spanstructuresareverysensitivetowindloads.Inthedesign,windloadsareseenasamajorcontrolload.Inwind-resistantdesign,Becauseofobservationaldataoftyphoonarefewinthepast,thebasicwindpressureisconservative.Thisbroughteconomicburdenandbuildingmaterialswaste.Basicwindspeedofthecodereliesonyearsofobservationoftheextremewinds.Butnowitislackoftyphoonobservationdata.Thenusenumericalsimulationandtyphoonriskanalysismethodscanmakeupforinsufficientdatadeficiencies.ThispaperelaboratedonYanMengwindmodelandtheCEmodelandgavetheirsolvingmethod.CombinedwithnumericalsimulationMonteCarloanalysis,wegettheprobabilitydistributionmodeloftyphoonkeyparametersofChina'scoastalcitiesofGuangzhou,Shenzhen,XiamenandHongKong.Byrandomsampling,simulationtyphoonseriesaregot.Finally,usingthetyphoonriskanalysismethodswegetthelargestmaximumwindspeedinthereturnperiodof50,100and200years.Thefulltextisdividedintofourchapters,asfollows:Chapter1isintroduction.Thischaptermainlyintroducesthesubjectsource,thepurposeandsignificance,andthedomesticandinternationalstateoftheart.Chapter2,CEwindandYanMengwindmodelanditssolution.ThischapterelaboratesontheYanMengwindmodelandCEmodel.ItusethemeasuredwindspeedanddirectionrecordofTyphoonBetty(87),Wayne(86)andYork(99)totestthetwowindmodels.TheresultsshowedthatthewindbetterthanYanMengwindfieldmodelisbetterthanCEwindmodel,itcansimulatetheTyphoonprocedureincoastalregionsofChinaappropriately.Chapter3,Typhoonriskanalysisandprobabilitydistributionofkeyparametersofatyphoon.Typhoonkeyparameters,includingtheincidenceoftyphoons,Typhoondirectionofmovement,Typhoonmovingspeed,maximumwindspeedradiusandcentralpressuredifference.Bysimulatingroundmethod,wegettyphoonhistoricaldataofthecitiesofGuangzhou,HangKong,ShenzhenandXiamen.ByIIAbstractstatisticsanalysisthekeyparametersofatyphoonprobabilitydistributionmodelaregotten.Chapter4,Typhoonriskanalysisofthekeycitiesalongthesoutheastcoastandextremewindsinferred.BysimulatingalargenumberoftyphoonsolvedwithTyphoonfieldmodeltheextremewindsofsamplesisgiven.throughriskanalysis,projectedtoGuangzhou,HongKong,ShenzhenandXiamenandothercitiesinthereturnperiodof50years,100yearsandthemaximumwindspeedof200years.Finally,itgivesthemainconclusionsofthispaperandthesubjectoftheprospectsforfutureresearchworkKeywordstyphoonwind-fieldmodels;numericalsimulation;extremewindspeed;hazardanalysis;returnperiodIII哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文目录摘要.............................................................................................................................IAbstract......................................................................................................................II第1章绪论.........................................................................................................11.1课题来源...........................................................................................................11.2本课题研究的目的及意义...............................................................................11.3国内外相关方向发展现状...............................................................................21.3.1台风风场模型............................................................................................21.3.2台风数值模拟............................................................................................51.4本文主要研究