48 Rural Population Growth, Agricultural Change an

RURALPOPULATIONGROWTH,AGRICULTURALCHANGEANDNATURALRESOURCEMANAGEMENTINDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES:AREVIEWOFHYPOTHESESANDSOMEEVIDENCEFROMHONDURASJohnPenderEPTDDISCUSSIONPAPERNO.48EnvironmentandProductionTechnologyDivisionInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute2033KStreet,N.W.Washington,D.C.20006U.S.A.August1999EPTDDiscussionPaperscontainpreliminarymaterialandresearchresults,andarecirculatedpriortoafullpeerreviewinordertostimulatediscussionandcriticalcomment.ItisexpectedthatmostDiscussionPaperswilleventuallybepublishedinsomeotherform,andthattheircontentmayalsoberevised.ABSTRACTThispaperreviewshypothesesabouttheimpactsofruralpopulationgrowthonagricultureandnaturalresourcemanagementindevelopingcountriesandtheimplicationsforproductivity,poverty,andnaturalresourceconditions.Impactsonhouseholdandcollectivedecisionsareconsidered,anditisarguedthatpopulationgrowthismorelikelytohavenegativeimpactswhenthereisnocollectiveresponsesthanwhenpopulationgrowthinducesinfrastructuredevelopment,collectiveaction,institutionalororganizationaldevelopment.Theimpactsofpopulationpressure,particularlyonnaturalresourceconditions,maybeverydifferentindifferentcontexts,dependingonthenatureoflocalmarkets,institutions,andotherfactors.Thuscarefulandcomparativeempiricalworkisneededindifferentcontextsbeforegeneralconclusionscanbedrawn.Thereisstillalackofsuchempiricalevidence.TheresultsofonestudyincentralHondurasareusedtoexaminesomeofthehypothesespresented.Theresultssupportneo-Malthusianconcernsabouttheeffectsofpopulationgrowthonlanddegradation,butalsoprovidesomesupporttoBoserupianpredictionsthatpopulationpressurewillinduceadoptionoflabor-intensivelandimprovements,collectiveactiontomanagenaturalresources,andorganizationaldevelopment.Ingeneral,however,theimpactsofpopulationpressurewerefoundtoberelativelysmallandotherfactors,includinginfrastructuredevelopmentandtechnicalassistanceprograms,hadstrongerimpactsonagriculturalchangeandnaturalresourcemanagement.Althoughinducedinnovationtheoryarguesthatpopulationpressuremayinducesuchpolicyresponses,wefoundthattheseinterventionsweremorelikelyinless-denselypopulatedcommunities.Thisemphasizesthatsuch“induced”policyresponsestopopulationpressuredonothappenautomatically.iCONTENTS1.Introduction.......................................................12.HouseholdResponsestoRuralPopulationGrowth..........................5Extensification.................................................10ShorteningTheFallowCycle......................................13AdoptionofMoreLabor-IntensiveMethods..........................15Labor-intensiveInvestmentinLand.................................16AdoptionofCapitalIntensiveMethods..............................20KnowledgeIntensification........................................26ChangesinProductMix..........................................30ChangesinOccupationAndMigration...............................33ChangesinHouseholdFertilityDecisions.............................363.CollectiveResponsestoRuralPopulationGrowth.........................39InvestmentsinInfrastructure......................................40ChangesinCollectiveAction......................................44InstitutionalChange.......................................49OrganizationalChange...........................................53Summary.....................................................554.EvidenceFromCentralHonduras......................................56Methods......................................................57Results.......................................................61Impacts................................................61ImpactsonOutcomes......................................66Conclusions...................................................706.Acknowledgments.................................................73References..........................................................75JohnPenderisaResearchFellow,EnvironmentandProductionTechnology*Division,InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute,Washington,D.C.RuralPopulationGrowth,AgriculturalChangeandNaturalResourceManagementinDevelopingCountries:AReviewofHypothesesandSomeEvidenceFromHondurasJohnPender*1.INTRODUCTIONTheimpactsofpopulationgrowthonagricultureandnaturalresourcemanagementhavebeendebatedatleastsincethetimeofMalthus.AlthoughthedismalpredictionsofMalthusregardingtheinabilityofagriculturalproductiontokeeppacewithpopulationgrowthhavenotcometopassintheindustrializednations,agriculturalproductionpercapitahasfallenandpovertyhasincreasedinmanydevelopingcountriesinrecentdecades(especiallyinAfrica).Inaddition,thereareseriousandgrowingconcernsabouttheimpactsofrapidpopulationgrowthonnaturalresources,includingforests,land,water,biodiversity,andotherresources(WorldCommissiononEnvironmentandDevelopment,1987;EhrlichandEhrlich1990).Incontrasttothedirepredictionsoftheneo-Malthusianperspective,amoreoptimisticperspectivehasariseninrecentdecadesaswell,followingfromtheworkofEsterBoserupandothersBoserup(1965,1981),Ruthenberg(1980)andothershaveemphasizedtheresponsesofhouseholds,communitie