经营判断和风险评估的战略投资决策(小岛屿发展中国家)

1MANAGERIALJUDGEMENTANDRISKASSESSMENTINSTRATEGIGINVESTMENTDECISIONS(SIDs)©ElainePHarrisandCliveREmmanuelWorkingPaper2000/10DepartmentofAccounting&FinanceUniversityofGlasgowWorkingPaperSeriesTheDepartmentshouldliketoacknowledgethehelpandsupportoftheWardsTrustFundsetupin1980aftertheuntimelydeathofJamesCusatorWards.Published2000bytheDepartmentofAccountingandFinance,UniversityofGlasgow,GlasgowG128LEISBN0852617097ManagerialJudgementandRiskAssessmentin2StrategicInvestmentDecisions(SIDs)ElaineP.Harris(DeMontfortUniversity,Leicester)CliveR.Emmanuel(UniversityofGlasgow)AbstractThetheoreticaldefinitionofriskapplieswherepossibleoutcomesareknownandtheprobabilityofthoseoutcomescanbeestimated.Riskanalysistechniquesthereforefocusontheeffectofrisk.Severalsurveysindicatethatthesetechniquesarenormallycomplementedordominatedbysubjectiveorintuitiveassessmentsofriskwhichhaspromptedadebateoverapossibletheory-practicegap.Whenanalternativetheoreticalperspectiveofdecision-makingunderuncertaintyisadopted,managerialcognitionof'risk'embraceshumaninformationprocessingcapabilities,groupdynamicsandconsensus-building.Thisapproachencompassesmanagerialattemptstorecogniseunpredictableeventsandtoisolatetheircauses.Whetherriskisseenfromacauseoreffectperspectivemaybegaugedbyexaminingempirical,especiallyfield-basedstudieswhichsuggestatheory-theorygapexists.Emergenceofthisgapcanbereconciledwithinthedifferentstagesofthestrategicinvestmentdecision(SID)process.Anemphasisonthecauseofriskrequiresmanagementjudgementsatlowerlevelsinanorganisation,attheprojectgeneration,businesscaseandearlyscreeningstages,tobeoffundamentalimportance.ThesubsequenteffectsofriskattheanalysisandevaluationstageprovidepossiblycomplementarybutsecondaryconsiderationsfortheSID.Giventhisincreasedemphasisonthecausesofrisk,futureresearchpossibilitiesareoutlinedintheconcludingsection.Correspondencedetails:Prof.ElainePHarrisDeMontfortUniversityTheGatewayLeicesterLE19BHPhone:01162577211Fax:[phone]E-mail:[e-mail]3ManagerialJudgementandRiskAssessmentinStrategicInvestmentDecisions(SIDs)IntroductionStrategicinvestmentdecisions(SIDs)continuetobeofcriticalimportancetomodernbusinessenterprises.Adoptionofastrictlyeconomicparadigmenablesfinancetheorytoemphasisesophisticatedriskassessmenttechniquestoresolvethesedecisions.ThisfocusontheeffectsofriskignorestheorganisationalcontextinwhichSIDsoccurandthepotentialinfluencemanagerialandstrategicconsiderationsmayexercise.RecognitionofSIDsasaprocess,inwhichevaluationandanalysisformbutonestageonly,helpedtointroducetheorganisationalcontext.Implicitinthisviewistheinvolvementof,potentially,severallevelsofmanagementwhointerpretcorporatestrategyandassessrisk,particularlyattheearlystagesoftheSIDprocess.Howthesemanagersperceiveriskisthereforeofconsiderablesignificanceifconsequentstagesoftheprocessaretobemeaningful.Doespersonalriskreplacestrategic,company-wideconsiderationsoraretherewaysinwhichcorporateriskassessmentsaretransmittedtoguidedivisionallevelmanagers’judgement?Takinganalternativetheoreticalperspectiveofferedbyprospecttheory,whichaddresseshowthehumanmindworks,problemswithanindividual’sinterpretationofprobabilitiesemerge.Adecisiontaker’sriskassessmentincorporatesadetectionofthecausesofunpredictableevents,whichmaybetermed‘riskdrivers’.Thisfocusoncauseadmitshumaninformationprocessing,groupdynamicsandconsensusbuildingtotheSIDprocess.Byexaminingrecentfieldbasedstudies,someofthesefeaturesmayhelpexplainhowcompaniesmanagetheprocessanddivisionalmanagementassessmentofrisk.Theaimisthereforetwofold:(a)toclarifywhetherriskhasacausalaswellasaneffectfocusand(b)tocommenceasynthesisoffieldstudiestodetecthowlowerlevelmanagementassessmentofriskiscarriedoutinpractice.Thepaperisorganisedinthefollowingway:abriefhistoryoftheSIDprocessandthesurveyevidenceofriskappraisaltechniquesisexamined:rationalityindecision-makingisnextquestionedbeforeprospecttheoryispresentedandagroupdimensionadded.Thenextsectionaddressesrecentfieldbasedstudiesandanalysestheseusingtheriskascausefocus.AfinalsectionplacesthealternativeperspectivesofriskascauseandeffectinthecontextoftheSIDprocess.Attheearlierstagesoftheprocess,futureresearchmayusefullyexaminethehumaninformationprocessing,groupdynamicsandconsensusbuildingattributesinanyfieldwork.Thismayhelpexplainhowdivisionalmanagementriskassessmentis(in)formed.AbriefhistoryoftheSIDprocess4Ithasbeensuggestedthatacademicsinthefieldoffinancetaketoonarrowaviewofcapitalbudgeting(King,1975).AnexampleofthistraditionalornarrowviewoffinancemightbeLevyandSarnat,whoprefernottodealwithstrategyatall,andcontinuetoassumethatdecisionswillbemadebasedoneconomicevaluationalone.Thisisunderstandablewhereshareholderwealthmaximisationisassumedtobetheprimaryobjectiveofthefirm(LevyandSarnat,1994).Likewiseorganisationalbehaviouralissuesarelargelyignoredasirrelevanttofinancetheorywithinthiseconomicparadigm.InthefiftheditionofLumby’sbook,heincludesachapteron‘strategicplanningandthefinancefunction’(Lumby,1994,p25-37),whichdoesrecognisealink,butthestrategiccontextfordecisi