金融发展与城乡收入分配差距研究

华侨大学硕士学位论文金融发展与城乡收入分配差距研究姓名：朱元彧申请学位级别：硕士专业：经济学、数量经济学指导教师：胡日东200706011261978-19911992-20051984-1997UU26UUU2AbstractTherelationshipbetweenfinancialdevelopmentandeconomicgrowthhasbeenfrequentlydiscussedrecently,butthatbetweenfinancialdevelopmentandurban-ruralincomeinequalityhasmuchlessbeenresearched.BythefurtherwidenedGinicoefficient,urban-ruralincomeinequalitynowbecomesthefocusofeconomicsfield,moreandmoreresearchersbegintostudytheinnerrelationshipbetweenitandfinancialdevelopment.Thispapersetupamicromodel,combinedKuznetsinverted-Ushapecurveempiricallyanalyzedtimeseriesdataduringtheperiodof1978-2005,andfoundthatasimulatedinverted-Ushapecurveisnotpresentedbetweenthetwo;onthecontrary,theincomeinequalitytendstobemoreandmoreserious,andbehavesdifferentlyindifferentphases.Thepaperfurtherdividedtheentiresampleintothreeperiods:1978-1991,1992-2005and1984-1997,andfoundinfirsttwoperiodstheurban-ruralincomeinequalitypresentasimulatedUshapecurve,butinthethirdperioditpresentsasimulatedinverted-Ushapecurve.Seenfromtheentiresample,theinequalityhasbeenextendedbythefinancialdevelopmentintheformsofwavesfor26years.Thereforewemaydrawaconclusion:onpresentstagethefinancialdevelopmenthascausedtheurban-ruralincomeinequalityexpended,anditisnotconformstotheKuznetshypotheses.Itisunknownwhetherwillbeasimulatedinverted-Ushapecurve,instead,Chinaisatthelefthalfsideofinverted-Ucurve,theinequalityisstillontherise,theurban-ruralincomeinequalitywillfurtherexpandinthefuture.Finally,thepaperfurtherdiscussedthenon-regularreasonthatcausedtheincomeinequality,andcountermeasuresthatmayreducetheinequality.Keywords:KuznetshypothesisFinancialdevelopmentUrban-ruralincomeinequality41.12006414200620053.2212006113209020053255104933.221200528.2%6.647.6%1.3%59880.31046.452520065121.21.2.120502002Lewis1954Kuznets1955JohnRobinson(NicholasKaldor)(Pasinetti)195419626195520%60%UKuznets1955USala-I-Martin2003UPaukert(1973)ChenerySyrquin1975Ahuluwalia1976Cline(1975)PapanekKyn(1987)UFeiRanisKuo(1979)205070500.53700.332080UKuznets”EconomicGrowthandIncomeInequality”,AmericanEconomicReviewVol.45No.1March1955p.18.7U2090708090UUFields199148%42%FieldsAnandKanbur(1993)AnandKanbur1993UGalorTsidon1996AlbertoAlesinaDaniRodrik199419601985890(Brunoeal.1995)BirdsallLondono1997Ravallion1998ThomasWang(1998)Deininge1999Klasen1999LiZou1998AlbertoAlesinaRobertoPerotti1996711.2.2Goldsmith1969McKinnon1973Shaw1973FinancialDevelopmentStiglitz1985Mayer1990KingLevine1993a1993bBeckerLevine20022090Greenwood&JovanovicGJ1990Greenwood&Jovanovic19909Greenwood&Jovanovic“U”GJGalor&ZeiraGalor&Zeira199310Bannerjee&Newman1993[]*,0ω[]***,ωωAghion&Bolton(1997)Piketty1997Matsuyama200011MatsuyamaTownsendandUeda2003GJBenabou1996LiSquire&ZouLSZ1998JalilianandKirkpatrick2001Honohan2003Motonishi2004IyigunandOwen2004KuznetsClarkeXu&Zou2003ititCVFinanceitfGiniCoefitInεαα+++=20)()()(GiniCoefitInFinanceit/GDPModernitFinanceitFinanceitFinanceFinanceitFinanceitfit**)(131211ααα++=Modernit/GDPitCVGDPBenabouRonald1996LiHongyiLynSquireZou1998HonohanPatrick200412/GDP911960-1995Greenwood&JovanovicUBeckDemirgucandLevineBDL2004991960-1999POORGINICOEFGCAPGDPINFANTMORTALITYPRIVATECREDIT/GDPEXPENGDPINFLTRADEGDPTownsendandUeda2003GJHonoban(2004)/GDP/GDPU13Wei19972004CXZ2002GDPGDPOPENGDPFDIGDPHRSFISAGR1978-199890GJU2004Paneldata20051978-2002GrangerGrangerGranger20042004Paneldata19781998198720011420041.31979-2005123152.1MurphyKevinM.19881955KuznetsUKuznetsAghionPhilippePatrickBolton1997GalorOdedJosephZeira199316KuznetsClarkeXuandZouCXZ2003CXZ2003Kuznets2.2Yao&Zhu199820031985199420032005199419923050.67%19981987199519872.6870.9%19953.0275.2%2017FDIFDI20032003200119841997207080208020031820042003GDP200220060.5%60%5%10%20%20%181%5%10%0.20.61.790%20066Shi,2002Lu,2002Yang,1999200320051988199520021920002005GDP57.3%58.3%29.2%2006599710.2%0.7179711.9%0.620053.2215161200236%43%19952002752.7%38.5%200240%2003200360%19972003199520022036%43%7.5%8.7%11.6836%199546%14%35%58%8021122006720061.8415%-20%0.1-0.220047182200310.3%2185200312.4%112.3GJ201120062212908090809012202390CXZ2003243.13.1.1SG1319911420041513200220042003141999159200425URSGURURIISGII−=+RIUIRiUiURSGii=−,URURURURIIiiIIII==++11978-2005UIRIUi%Ri%SG1978343.4133.671.99161428.0083860.43981979405.0160.271.65605128.3439490.43311980477.6191.371.40080728.5991930.42801981500.4223.469.13512030.8648800.38271982535.3270.166.46386933.5361310.32931983564.6309.864.56999135.4300090.29141984652.1355.364.73099135.2690090.29461985739.1397.665.02155434.9784460.30041986900.9423.868.00785131.9921490.360219871002.1462.668.41674131.5832590.368319881180.2544.968.41342531.5865750.368319891373.9601.569.55047130.4495290.391019901510.2686.368.75483731.2451630.375119911700.6708.670.58774729.4122530.41182619922026.6784.072.10560027.8944000.442119932577.4921.673.66104626.3389540.473219943496.21221.074.11600125.8839990.482319954283.01577.773.08000826.9199920.461619964838.91926.171.52845528.4715450.430619975160.32090.171.17262528.8273750.423519985425.12162.071.50426428.4957360.430119995854.02210.372.59161327.4083870.45182