德意志银行研究报告――中国电子商务：物流为王

AsiaChinaTechnologySoftware&Services23August2010ChinaInternetInsightsChinae-commerce:LogisticallyspeakingAlanHellawellIIIResearchAnalyst(+852)[e-mail]t(+86)[e-mail]alyst(+1)[e-mail]/HongKongAllpricesarethosecurrentattheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicated.PricesaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.DataissourcedfromDeutscheBankandsubjectcompanies.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MICA(P)007/05/2010FITTResearchFundamental,Industry,Thematic,ThoughtLeadingDeutscheBankCompanyResearch'sInvestmentPolicyCommitteehasdeemedthisworkF.I.T.T.forinvestorsseekingdifferentiatedideas.OurChinaInternetinsightsseriesisdesignedtoprovidetimelyidentificationofemergingtrendsthatarelikelytodrivefurthergrowthandchange.Inthisreport,wenotonlyevaluatetheimportanceoflogisticsspecifictoe-commercefulfillment,butalsothelogisticalchallengesthattraditionalplayersfaceingoingonline.Fundamental:Consumer-focusede-commercethenextmajorchapterinChina’sInternetgrowthstoryIndustry:Logisticsadeterminantinusersatisfaction,e-commercesuccessThematic:Definingdaysforlogistics;achievementofe-commercedominanceevermoredifficultThought-Leading:Verticalstodeepenandbroaden;markettoconsolidateSectorstrategy:DowngradingBaidu,Tencent–e-commerceasabolt-onservice,notidealPEG-basedvaluations;risksrelatedtomacro,policy,networkdeploymentCompanyGlobalMarketsResearchAsiaChinaTechnologySoftware&Services23August2010ChinaInternetInsightsChinae-commerce:LogisticallyspeakingAlanHellawellIIIResearchAnalyst(+852)[e-mail]t(+86)[e-mail]alyst(+1)[e-mail],Industry,Thematic,ThoughtLeadingDeutscheBankCompanyResearch'sInvestmentPolicyCommitteehasdeemedthisworkF.I.T.T.forinvestorsseekingdifferentiatedideas.OurChinaInternetinsightsseriesisdesignedtoprovidetimelyidentificationofemergingtrendsthatarelikelytodrivefurthergrowthandchange.Inthisreport,wenotonlyevaluatetheimportanceoflogisticsspecifictoe-commercefulfillment,butalsothelogisticalchallengesthattraditionalplayersfaceingoingonline.DeutscheBankAG/HongKongAllpricesarethosecurrentattheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicated.PricesaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.DataissourcedfromDeutscheBankandsubjectcompanies.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MICA(P)007/05/2010FITTResearchToppicksAlibaba.comLimited(1688.HK),HKD15.20BuyCompaniesfeaturedAlibaba.comLimited(1688.HK),HKD15.20Buy2009A2010E2011EP/E(x)58.445.534.3EV/EBITDA(x)47.835.325.2Price/book(x)15.910.97.8Tencent(0700.HK),HKD148.10Hold2009A2010E2011EP/E(x)30.430.223.6EV/EBITDA(x)22.120.916.0Price/book(x)23.012.48.3Baidu(BIDU.OQ),USD82.17Hold2009A2010E2011EP/E(x)46.357.137.5EV/EBITDA(x)33.543.027.6Price/book(x)20.523.814.6Ctrip(CTRP.OQ),USD42.10Hold2009A2010E2011EP/E(x)32.246.434.6EV/EBITDA(x)24.233.322.6Price/book(x)11.811.48.8Fundamental:Consumer-focusede-commercethenextmajorchapterinChina’sInternetgrowthstoryChineseconsumersareinthemidstofamajorbehavioralshift,migratinganever-increasingamountoftheirbuying(andselling)online.WeexpectB2CandC2Ctransactionvolumestogrowata42%CAGRfrom2009-14,hittingRMB1,523bni.e.7.2%oftotaldomesticretailsales.Industry:Logisticsadeterminantinusersatisfaction,e-commercesuccessLogisticsisakeyelementine-commerceandwillnecessitatedeepinvestmentandexpertise,evenfromChina’smostdominantInternetnames.E-commercenamesareadoptingoneoftwoapproachestoaddresslogistics:platformorself-build.Wepreferplatform(inwhichlogisticsarelargelyoutsourced)asitismorecost-efficientandscalable,allowingplayerstogainbusinessscalequickly.Thematic:Definingdaysforlogistics;achievementofe-commercedominanceevermoredifficultTaobao’slargescalehasallowedittodefinetherecentevolutionofChina’sdeliverysystemtoitsownbenefit.OtherB2Cs’majorself-buildcyclesalsoputpressureonBaiduandTencenttocommitfurthertotheire-commerceinitiatives.Thought-Leading:Verticalstodeepenandbroaden;markettoconsolidateWeexpectseveralemergingB2Cverticals(profiledherein)toaggressivelyexpandtheirproductcategoriestobecomecomprehensiveonlineshoppingcentersasthemarketconsolidates.Webelievelogisticswillhelpdeterminefuturebeneficiaries.Sectorstrategy:DowngradingBaidu,Tencent–e-commerceasabolt-onservice,notidealJudgingfromothermarkets,fromtheUStoJapan,themost