030麦肯锡-美国通讯行业研究报告(英)

11CONTACTSMCKINSEY&[e-mail]&Company,Boston:[e-mail]&Company,Boston:[e-mail]&Company,NewJersey:1-973-549-6462GOLDMAN,SACHS&CO.DebraKatz,[e-mail],NewYork:1-212-357-1377Natarajan'Subu'Subrahmanyan,USCommunicationsTechnology:Da[e-mail],MenloPark:1-650-234-3313BrantleyW.Thompson,USCommunicationsTechnology:Wireline/[e-mail],NewYork:1-212-902-9823LuanneZurlo,[e-mail],NewYork:1-212-902-6702CONTRIBUTORS/ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSManypeopleatGoldmanSachsandMcKinseyparticipatedinthecreationofthisreport.Inparticular,weacknowledgethefollowingindividuals:MCKINSEY&COMPANYGOLDMAN,SACHS&CO.CoreTeamKusheBahlChrisGilbertJeffKosowskyMoshikoLevharJ.R.LowrySarahPohlenDaiVuBobHuManishSinhaGiladSokolovAbhinavTanejaShingYinSteeringCommitteeGregBesioPeterBissonBradBrownTomFrenchVivekMohindraMikeNevensStaggNewmanJimSeabergOtherAdvisors/ContributorsSimonBlackburnCurtisCopelandPerryCuiFerozeDewanChipHardtJamesKaplanAndrewKincheloeSimonLandlessDanaMaorGregMooreJudithStopardCoreTeamHerbBeatsonSaraDawesChristopherFineLisaFontenelliJamesSimmonsErnestKwarteng(parttime)ResearchAnalystsDebraKatzNatarajan'Subu'SubrahmanyanBrantleyW.ThompsonLuanneZurloOtherContributors/ReviewersJeffAdamsLawrenceCalcanoFrankConnorFrankGovernaliChuckHarrisMaryHenryJimHimesTimIngrassiaBradKoenigGregoryLeeRyanLimayeWewouldalsoliketothankalltheindividualsoutsideMcKinseyandGoldmanSachswhospenttimeonthisproject.Theseincluderepresentativesfromthecompaniesweinterviewed,includingserviceproviders,equipmentandcomponentmanufacturers,operationalsupportsystems(OSS)providers,andsystemsintegrators.Wewouldliketothankthefollowingindividualsinparticular:BrunoCodispoti,JimFrey,JoeGleeson,GeorgeKawand,VivekKhuller,RandyKorn,TonyMarson,AndrewOdlyzko,DebanjanSaha,andAnnVonLehmen._____________________________________________________________________________ThissummaryisanabstractofalargerreportpublishedjointlybyGoldmanSachs&Co.andMcKinsey&CompanyinAugust2001.Foracopyofthefullreport,pleasecontactyourGoldmanSachs&Co.orMcKinsey&Co.representative.ThisreportistheresultofajointresearcheffortbetweenMcKinsey&CompanyandGoldmanSachs.Thisindustry-levelstudyowesitsgenesistoaseriesofongoingconversationsamongtheauthorsandthemutualdecisionthatpoolingresourceswouldproveaproductivemeanstogaininsightintokeymarkettrends.McKinsey&CompanywasnotretainedbyGoldmanSachstoworkonthiseffort.GoldmanSachsmaysubsequentlydrawoninformationandconclusionscontainedinthisreporttodevelopinvestmentrecommendations.McKinsey&Companydoesnotmakeinvestmentrecommendations,inthisreportorotherwise,andnothinginthisreportshouldbeinterpretedasanopinionbyMcKinsey&Companyontheprospectsofspecificcompanies._____________________________________________________________________________Importantdisclosuresappearatthebackofthisreport.11RESEARCHHIGHLIGHTSOPPORTUNITIESAMIDTHEGLOOMTheWallStreetJournal,onJuly25,2001,statedthat“Theimpact[oftheTelecombust]reverberatesfarbeyondtelecomcarriersandtheirequipmentsuppliers,downthroughafoodchainthatreachesintoalmosteverycorneroftheeconomy.”Certainly,thelastyearhasseenaseriouscontractioninstockvaluationsthroughoutthetelecomuniverse,fromserviceproviderstoequipmentandcomponentvendors.Eachofthepastthreequartershasproducedafloodofnegativeearningsannouncements,write-offs,andlayoffs.Likeallrapidandwide-rangingindustryandeconomicshifts,the“TelecomCrash”givesrisetomorequestionsthananswers.Howdidithappen?Whereistheindustrynow?Howwidearetheeffects?Whenwillitbeover?Whichcompaniesandtechnologieswillemergeandwhowillcomeoutahead?Overthepastseveralmonths,ajointteamofanalystsfromMcKinseyandGoldmanSachshaveexaminedthesequestionstogaincontextandperspectiveonthecurrentcommunicationsinfrastructureslowdownandlifebeyondforequipment,component,andOperationalSupportSystems(OSS)vendors.Thisteamarrivedatthefollowingconclusionsandstrategiesforsuccess.KeyConclusions1.Thecurrentequipmentindustryslowdownhasnotbeencausedbyafalloffinactualbandwidthdemand(versusebullientdemandforecasts)fromenterprisesandotherend-users,butratherbysupply-sidefactorssuchasover-buildingbycarriers,over-manufacturingbyvendors,andover-capitalizationbyfinancialmarkets,coupledwithunrealisticmarketexpectations.2.Weexpectsalesofequipmenttobeimpactedforonetotwoyearsinlong-haulandlessthansixmonthsinmetrotransportmarkets,drivenprimarilybythetimeitwilltaketoabsorbinstalledovercapacity.Inthattime,excessinventoriesshouldbeconsumedanddistressedassetsredeployed.Componentvendorsshouldseeapickupapproximatelythreemonthsearlierbecauseoftheorderingleadtimestypicallyinvolved,partiallyoffsetbyexcessinventoriesatsystemsvendors.3.Thetimenecessarytoabsorbexcessbandwidthcapacitydependsonactualdemandgrowthandonthenetworkoverheadthatisrequiredtomeetdemand