【国际期货市场运作】第4组 国际期货-黄金的期货分析

黄金的期货分析第四组：杨翔渊，金莹，李艳梅，邓艳，田一秀，赵博超商务英语061班Price：27thmay2009ContractperiodofShanghaiGoldPrice209yuanpertonSupplyThenewlyyieldedgoldfrommininglongperiodofinvestmentandhighcostofminingproductionslightlydecreasedCentralbanksellinggoldCentralBankGoldAgreement——limitthequantityreducingsellingforsafetyDemandGoldmanufacturingjewelryandelectronics—increasingInternationalreserveMonetarygold—increasingInvestmentdemandGoldETFConclusionofsupplyanddemandGoshortinshorttermGolonginlongterm3、Relevantforeignfuturesproducts--COMEX&TOCOMClosingpriceofgoldfutureonJune8,COMEX(Unit:dollarsperounce)---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ContractOpenHighLowCloseChangeVolumePositionJune2009(GLNM)951.2953.8944.4951.7-104642580July2009(GLNN)950.1953.9943.6951.9-10.1497753Aug2009(GLNQ)950.9953943.8952.5-10.186348248688Oct2009(GLNV)950.5955.3945.9953.9-10.1156612480Dec2009(GLNZ)954.1957.7947.7955.4-10.1248244816Feb2010(GLNG)955.9955.9955.9957.4-9.93315298Apr2010(GLNJ)958.7961.5951.1959.4-9.7134415488---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Tips:1ounce=31.1035gramsConclusion:closingpriceofgolddroppedonJune8,COMEX.StatisticaldataofgoldinventoryonJune8,COMEX-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------VarietyGoldSilverCopperRegistrationwarehouse2,610,24264,143,95856,723receiptChange-20,286holdthelineholdthelineNon-registrationwarehouse6,089,39754,612,095763receiptChange-1,827261,184247Stockgrand8,699,639118,756,05357,486totalChange-22,113-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------(Unit:Gold-ounce;Sliver-ounce;Copper-shortton)Conclusion：Inventoryofgoldisdecreasing.GoldfuturesmarketonJune9,TOCOM------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ContractClosingpriceOpenHighLowCloseChangeVolumeofyesterdayJune20093,0203,0153,0152,9813,000-20104Aug20093,0263,0153,0162,9873,000-2597Oct20093,0283,0213,0212,9873,000-25115Dec20093,0303,0233,0232,9893,009-21517Feb20103,0343,0273,0292,9943,012-215,004Apr20103,0363,0293,0322,9963,016-2022,775Total28,612------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Tips:Unit：yenpergram；Conclusion:closingpriceofgolddroppedonJune9,TOCOM.1yearUSGDPThefirstquarterof2009theU.S.GDPfell6.1%,stuckinthelargestrecessionsincetheGreatDepression.Andthefactindicatedthattheglobaleconomysituationisstillgrim.PPIU.S.LaborDepartmentdatareleasedThursdayshowedincreasesofAprilPPI,higherthanexpected,promotedbysignificantincreaseoffoodprices.Butbecausetheeconomicrecessionweakenedthecompany'spricingpower,thecorePPIofAprilonlymaintainedamoderateincrease.DatashowthatthemanufacturedgoodsPPIinUnitedStatesrose0.3%.MarchPPIfell1.2%.Economistshadforecastedit.CPICPIYeardeclineintheU.S.hitarecordsince1955TheU.S.LaborDepartmentdatareleasedyesterdayshowsthat,inMarchofthisyearoverthepastyear,theUnitedStatesconsumerpricesfellby0.4%forthelargestdeclinesince1955.MarchCPIdropped0.1%.ChinaGDPChina'sfirstquarterofthisyeargrossdomesticproduct(GDP)overthesameperiodincreasedbyonly6.1%,indicatingaverydepressedeconomy.Withtheweakeconomy,theweakdemandcausedbyinternationalfinancialcrisis,coupledwithcontinuedhighbubbleofhousepricesandtheunprospecteddomesticChinesestockmarket,investmentandfinancingofbusinessesandindividualshavebeenseriouslyaffected,resultingindecliningofconsumption,abnormaldevelopmentofeconomyandthemanyhardshipsoflife.InthiscasethepricedeclinewilloccurnaturallyPPI,CPIMay11,theNationalBureauofStatisticsannouncedinApriltheprincipalmacro-economicdata,CPIfell1.5%,PPIfell6.6%comparedwiththesameperiodlastyear.TheEuropeGDPFirstquarter:2.5%↓TheeuroareaGDPinthefourthquarterof2008isthelargestdeclineinhistoryThedatareleasedFridaybystatisticalbureauoftheEuropeanUnionshowedthatinthefourthquarterof2008,theeconomicrecessionwasdeepeningintheeuro-zone,andthegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)inthisquarterrecordedthebiggestdropsince1995.PPIThePPIdropofMarch,2009oftheeuro-zonebroketherecordof22yearsAccordingtothereportissuedbytheEuropeanCommission,theeurozoneMarchPPIfell3.1percentAprileuro-zoneproducerpriceindexhitanannualrateofdeclinesince1981CPIApril:AccordingtotheofficialofstatisticalbureauinEuropeanUnion.AprilCPIrose0.4%,thelowestannualratesince1996astheeconomistsexpected.Thereare15countriesintheeuroareainApril'sinflationrateislowerthaninMarch,ofwhichaminimumof-0.7%inIreland,Crudeoilfuturescontinueastrongrebound.OPECdecidedtomaintainoutputquotasunchanged,.NYMEXcrudeoilcontractinJulyrose1.89percentto66.31U.S.dollars/barrel,andtheJunecontractis70U.S.dollars.H1N1epidemicbrokeoutsuddenlymakethemarketworriedabouttheprocessofglobaleconomicrecoverywillbeblocked.GeneralMotorshavesubmittedtotheBankruptcyCourttoapplyforbankruptcyprotection.Itssharesfellsharply.GMisexpectedtoannouncebankruptcyprotectionandaccesstothereorganization.NorthKoreasituationisdet