XXXX光伏行业分析报告

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EquityResearchBarclaysCapitaldoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.CustomersofBarclaysCapitalintheUnitedStatescanreceiveindependent,third-partyresearchonthecompanyorcompaniescoveredinthisreport,atnocosttothem,wheresuchresearchisavailable.Customerscanaccessthisindependentresearchat(S)CERTIFICATION(S)ONPAGE29ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE301InvestmentConclusionChinesesolarsharesmayappearexpensiveon2009estimates,however,screenrelativelyattractiveon4quarterforwardestimatesassuming2H09recovery,inourview.Webelievethefollowingthreeinvestorconcernsarelikelytonegativelyimpactneartermsharepriceperformance:1)Downsidetogrossmarginassumptions,2)Excesschannelinventory,3)Streetestimatereductions.However,aspolyshortagesease,weexpectselectsharestooutperformthegroup.WeseegreaterdifferentiationbetweenChinesecompaniesthathaveeithertechnology/costadvantageandlowqualityundifferentiatedplayers.OurrecommendedpicksincludeYGE(1-OW)andJASO(1-OW).WerateSTPandSOLF3-UW.Summary‰InitiatingCoverage:WeareinitiatingcoverageonYGEwitha1-OWrating;LDKSolar,Renesola,TrinaSolar,andChinaSunergywith2-EWratings;andSolarfunwitha3-UWrating.‰NeartermOutlook:WebelievechannelinventorybuildandbalancesheetrisksarelikelytoremainthetwoprimaryconcernsimpactingallChinesesolarstocksinthenearterm.Inourview,approximately800MWofrawmaterialandfinishedgoodsinventorywasinthechannelasofQ408.Webelieveapproximately300MWofthisinventorywaswithdistributorsinEuropeandtheUSandanotherapproximately500MWofinventorywasonthebalancesheetsofsolarcell/moduleproducers.Duetotightnessincreditmarkets,wecurrentlyexpectsolardemandtodecline40%sequentiallyinQ109afternearly35%sequentialdeclineindemandinQ408.Webelievecell/modulemanufacturersmayneedtocutproductionlevelsby45%inQ109inordertoavoidtheinventorybuildproblem.MostChinesesolarcompaniespurchasedhighcostsiliconinearlyQ408assumingdemandwouldremainstrongandshipmentswouldgrowsequentially.WebelieveseveralofthesecompaniesmayhavetowritedownhighcostinventoryasmoduleASPshavedeclinedbymorethan30%sequentially.Ouranalysissuggeststhatthewafermanufacturers-LDKandRenesola-mayhavetowritedownover$100millionworthofinventory,whereascompaniessuchasYinglithatrelyonthespotmarketmayberelativelyimmunetothistrend.Intermsofbalancesheetrisks,webelieveseveralChinesesolarcompanieshaveconvertibledebtwithaputoptionduein2010.OuranalysissuggeststhatcashpositionsofYingli,JASolararelikelytoremainadequateforworkingcapitalanddebtservicerequirements,whereasbalancesheetsofLDK,Renesola,andSolarfunmayneedsomerestructuringifthecurrentcreditmarketweaknesscontinues.‰MarginsCouldLikelyBottominQ109:Despitetheinventoryandbalancesheetconcerns,webelieveselectsolarcompaniessuchasYingliarelikelytobegreaterbeneficiaryofrapidlydecliningspotpricesandcouldgainmarketshareduetolowernon-siliconcostsversusUS/Europeansolarcompaniesandaccesstolocalbankfinancing.Inouropinion,relativelylowinvestorexpectationsandprofitabilityrequirementsofferChinesesolarcompaniesthecapabilitytoprovidelowerpricingcomparedtoUS/Europeansolarcell/modulemanufacturers.OurcheckssuggestthatsolarmodulepricesofferedbyYingliarearoundEur2.10-2.20/W,similartothecellASPsofferedbyEuropeancompaniessuchasQ-Cells.CellASPsfromleadingChinesecellproducerssuchasJASolararebelow$2.00/W,atasignificantdiscounttoEuropeanpeerssuchasQ-Cells.Ourviewisthatatpolypricesbelow$150/kg,companiessuchasYinglihavethepotentialtoachieveover20%grossmarginsatEur2/Wmoduleprices.February09,2009SolarEnergyIndustryOverviewChinaSolar:SelectiveOpportunitiesSectorView:New:1-PositiveOld:1-PositiveVishalShah1.212.526.4378vishal.shah1@barcap.comBCI,NewYorkAmericasTechnologySolarEnergy‰EquityResearch2CHINA’SGROWINGDOMINANCEWorldwidesolarshipmentsincreasedat65%CAGRfrom600MWin2003to4GWin2008.However,duringthecorrespondingperiod,shipmentsof7publiclytradedChinesesolarcompanieshaveincreasedata300%CAGRfromlessthan10MWin2003to1.7GWin2008.WorldwidemarketshareofpubliclytradedChinesesolarcompanieshasincreasedfromlessthan5%in2003toover40%in2008.WeexpectmarketshareofpubliclytradedChinesecompaniestoincreaseto48%in2009andnearly60%in2012.ChineseproductionvsTotalDemand05000100001500020000250002003200420052006200720082009201020112012MW0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%TotalChineseProduction(MW)TotalDemand(MW)Marketshare(%)Source:BarclaysCapitalresearch,CompanydataWebelievelowersiliconpricesin2009/2010andreductioninnon-siliconcoststhroughscale/conversionefficiencyimprovementhavethepotentialtoresultinsystempricesof~$4/W–alevelatwhichwebelievesolarcouldreachgridparityinseveralmarketsglobally.SUPPLYCHAINCOSTASSUMPTIONS:GRIDPARITYBY2010POLYWAFERCELLMODULESYSTEM$0.70/watt(Contract)$3.00/watt(spot)Price$2.10/watt$2.90/watt$3.70/watt$7.00/wattCost$0.30/watt$0.30/watt$1.50/watt(blendedcost)$2.40/w

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