中远集团物流行业及发展趋势研究报告04

July,2001COSCOIPOSUPPORTMATERIALSLogisticsServicesIndustryEnvironment&TrendAnalysis-COSCOCommentsandA.T.KearneyRemarksThecontentsofthisdocumentwerepreparedbyA.T.Kearneyandmaynotbeused,alteredordisclosedtootherparties,withoutthewrittenpermissionofA.T.Kearney.TheinformationcontainedinthisdocumenthasbeenobtainedfromexternalsourceswhichA.T.Kearneybelievesarereliable.However,A.T.Kearneycanmakenorepresentationastotheaccuracyorcompletenessoftheinformationorprojectionsderivedtherefrom.8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/2TableofContentsExecutiveSummary1.MarketSize&Growth•Global•China2.ServiceDemand•GlobalTrends•ChinaTrends3.CompetitiveEnvironment•Global•China4.RegulatoryEnvironment5.InformationTechnologyAppendix8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/3ExecutiveSummary8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/4A.T.Kearney’sdefinitionofthelogisticsservicesindustryStructuringandmanaging,onbehalfofcargoowners,solutionsinvolvingsomecombinationofpartsofthesupplychain(i.e.transportation,warehousing,(de)consolidation,etc.)8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/5Thelogisticsserviceindustryrepresentatremendousgrowthopportunity,bothgloballyandinChinaMarketCharacteristicConclusionCustomersareincreasinglydemandinghighvaluelogisticsservicesolutions,requiringglobalreachandadvancedsupplychainmanagementcapabilitiesIncreasingdemandforglobalreachandcapabilitiesfuelsconsolidationaslargefullserviceprovidersarepositioningthemselvesforsuccessChina’sentryintoWTOisexpectedtohavetwomainimplications-thelogisticsmarketwillgrowrapidly,andcompetitiveintensitywilldramaticallyincreaseStrongITcapabilitiesisbecomingacorecapabilityoflogisticsservicesprovidersandiscriticaltobuildingalogisticsservicesbusinessMarketSize&GrowthServiceDemandCompetitiveEnvironmentRegulatoryEnvironmentInformationTechnologySource:A.T.KearneyThegloballogisticsservicesmarketreachedanestimatedUS$190Bnin2000.TheChinamarketisstillsmallatUS$0.61Bn,butwillbegrowingrapidlyatCAGR35%overthenextfiveyears8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/6TheChinalogisticsindustrywillbeshapedbyChina’sentryintotheWTOandthesubsequentopeningofthemarkettoforeigncompetitionIndustryScenario2006•RapidincreaseinM&Aactivities•Keyalliancesformedwithinthenext2-3years•Rapidexpansionofglobalplayersofferingsophisticatedend-to-endsolution,includinglogistics,transportationandIT•Implementationofe-commerceinitiativesandincreasingdependenceonITnetworkMergers,AcquisitionsandAlliancesGlobalCompetitorsTechnology•Thelogisticsmarketwillgrowrapidly•CompetitiveintensitywilldramaticallyincreaseWTOEntrySource:A.T.Kearney8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/71.MarketSize&Growth8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/8ThegloballogisticsservicesmarketreachedanestimatedUS$190Bnin2000ThegloballogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoUS$190Bnin2000ThetransportationandrelatedexpendituresmarketreachedanestimatedUS$3.8Trillionin2000,andisexpectedtogrowatanannualrateof2.3%overthenext5yearsTheAsianlogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoreachUS$31Bnin2001andisexpectedtogrowatCAGR39%overthenextfiveyearsThegreatestopportunitiesforoutsourcingareintransport,warehousing,andtransportmanagementThegrowthofthegloballogisticsservicesindustryismainlydrivenbyshippers’propensitytooutsourcelogisticsservicesandorganictransportationmarketgrowthCustomerelectronics,automotiveandapparelrepresentthemostattractiveopportunitiesforlogisticsservicesinChina8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/9TheChinamarketisstillsmallatUS$0.61Bn,butwillbegrowingrapidlyatCAGR35%overthenextfiveyearsTheChinalogisticsservicesmarketisstillsmallatUS$0.61Bn,butwillbegrowingrapidlyoverthenext5yearsThelogisticsservicesindustryisstillatanearlystageofevolutioninChinaThetransportationandrelatedexpendituresareproportionatelyhigherinChinathaninmostdevelopedcountriesandNIEs-indicatingamajorimprovementopportunityInCoastalChina,demandforlogisticsservicesisexpectedtobestronginGuangdongandShanghaiInInlandChina,thelargestdemandpotentialisinSichuanandtheHubei/YangtzeriverregionGrowthinthelogisticsservicesindustryinChinawillmainlybedrivenbycontinuedmacroeconomicgrowthandincreasedpropensitytooutsourcelogistics•Favorablemacroeconomicoutlook•Publicpolicyandspending•Increasinginterestinoutsourcingforlogisticsneeds•GrowingITandE-business8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/10MarketSize&Growth-Global8Point/FinalVersion/LogisticsIndustryOutlook-final/11ThegloballogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoUS$190Bnin2000Source:Chinainfobank,CSFB,A.T.KearneyGlobalTransportationandLogisticsMarketSize(2000)Transportationandrelatedactivitieshandledbymanufacturers,wholesalers,retailersthemselves(e.g.privatefleet,privatewarehousing)Discretesetsoftransportationandrelatedservicesoutsourcedbymanufacturers,wholesalers,retailers(e.g.publicwarehousingetc.)Combinationof“transportationandrelatedservices”provisionedby3rdpartylogisticsserviceprovidersUS$3,800BnOutsourcedUS$190BnGlobaltransportationandrela