The Global Economic Environment

Chapter2TheGlobalEconomicEnvironmentAnoverviewoftheworldeconomyEconomicsystemStagesofmarketdevelopmentBalanceofpaymentsTradeinmerchandiseandservicesOverviewofinternationalfinanceTheWorldEconomy—AnOverviewChangessinceWorldWarII:Theemergenceofglobalmarkets•GlobalcompetitorshavedisplacedorabsorbedlocalonesTheintegrationoftheworldeconomyFivemainchangesTheincreasedvolumeofcapitalmovements.•Capitalmovementshavereplacedtradeasthedrivingforceoftheworldeconomy.Therelationshipbetweenproductivityandemployment.•Productionhasbecome“uncoupled”脱离fromemployment.Theemergenceoftheworldeconomyasthedominanteconomicunit.•Theworldeconomydominatesthescene;individualcountryeconomiesplayasubordinaterole.TheendoftheColdWar.•Thestrugglebetweencapitalismandsocialismislargelyover.E-commerce.•Thegrowthofe-commercediminishestheimportanceofnationalbarriersandforcescompaniestoreevaluatetheirbusinessmodels.EconomicSystemsMarketCapitalismCentrallyPlannedSocialismCentrallyPlannedCapitalismMarketSocialismMarketcapitalismCentrallyplannedcapitalismMarketsocialismCentrallyplannedsocialismCommandMarketResourcesAllocationPrivateStateResourcesOwnership经济体制是资源占有方式与资源配置方式的组合，资源占有方式可抽象为公有制与私有制两种，资源配置方式可抽象为计划配置与市场配置两种，这样，就可把经济体制划分为四大类:公有制计划经济体制私有制计划经济体制公有制市场经济体制私有制市场经济体制MarketCapitalismDefinition:IndividualsandfirmsallocateresourcesandproductionresourcesareprivatelyownedDrivenbyconsumers•ConsumersdecidewhatgoodstheydesireandfirmsdeterminewhatandhowmuchtoproduceGovernment’sroleistopromotecompetitionamongfirmsandensureconsumerprotection•NorthAmericaandtheEuropeanUnionNotallmarket-orientedeconomiesfunctioninanidenticalmannerAmerica:competitive,“wildfree-for-all”anddecentralizedinitiative.Japan:tightlyrun,highlyregulated---“JapanInc”.CentrallyPlannedSocialismDefinition:•Oppositeofmarketcapitalism•Stateholdsbroadpowerstoservethepublicinterest;decideswhatgoodsandservicesareproducedandinwhatquantities•ConsumerscanspendonwhatisavailableCharacteristics:•Governmentownsentireindustriesaswellasindividualenterprisesandcontrolsdistribution•Demandtypicallyexceedssupply•Littlerelianceonproductdifferentiation,advertising,pricingstrategyTrend:•Superiorityofmarketcapitalismindeliveringgoodsandservicesthatpeopleneedandwanthasledtoitsadoptioninmanyformerlysocialistcountries.Chinanowisundergoingeconomicreformsthathavesomedegreeofmarketallocationandprivateownership.Marketcapitalismandcentrallyplannedsocialismdonotexistin“pure”form.Commandandmarketresourceallocationarepracticedsimultaneously,asareprivateandstateresourceownership.CentrallyPlannedCapitalism&MarketSocialismCentrallyPlannedCapitalismAneconomicsysteminwhichcommandresourceallocationisutilizedextensivelyinanoverallenvironmentofprivateresourceownership.在私有资源环境中大幅依靠指令配置资源•SwedenMarketSocialismMarketallocationpolicieswithinanoverallenvironmentofstateownership.允许在整体国有的环境中采取市场配置的政策•ChinaEconomicFreedomRankingsofeconomicfreedomamongcountries：•free,mostlyfree,mostlyunfree,repressedVariablesconsideredincludesuchthingsas:•Tradepolicy•Taxationpolicy•Capitalflowsandforeigninvestment•Bankingpolicy•Wageandpricecontrols•Propertyrights•BlackmarketThereisahighcorrelationbetweenthedegreeofeconomicfreedomandtheextenttowhichanation’smixedeconomyisheavilymarketoriented.Free1.HongKong2.Singapore3.Ireland4.Luxembourg5.Iceland/U.K.7.Estonia8.Denmark9.Australia/NewZealand/UnitedStatesRepressed150.Cuba151.Belarus152.Libya/Venezuela153.Zimbabwe154.Burma155.Iran156.NorthKoreaStagesofMarketDevelopment•TheWorldBankhasdefinedfourcategoriesofdevelopmentusingGrossNationalIncome(GNI)asabase•Bigemergingmarkets(BEMs新型大市场),identified10yearsago,werecountriesinCentralEurope,LatinAmerica,andAsiathatweretohaverapideconomicgrowth•Today,thefocusisonBRIC,Brazil,Russia,India,andChinafourStagesofMarketDevelopmentLow-incomecountries1Low-middle-incomecountries2Upper-middle-incomecountries3High-incomecountrieso4Low-IncomeCountries•GNPpercapitaof$936orless•Characteristics–Limitedindustrializationandahighpercentageofthepopulationinvolvedinagricultureandsubsistencefarming.–Highbirthrates–Lowliteracyrates–Heavyrelianceonforeignaid–Politicalinstabilityandunrest–ConcentratedinSub-SaharanAfricaLow-IncomeCountries•About40%oftheworld’spopulationisincludedinthiseconomiccategory.•Manylow-incomecountrieshavesuchseriouseconomic,social,andpoliticalproblemsthattheyrepresentextremelylimitedopportunitiesforinvestmentandoperation.•Otherlow-incomecountriesrepresentgenuinemarketopportunities.Banglaseshisacaseinpoint.Lower-Middle-IncomeCountries•Theunitednationdesignates50countriesinthebottomranksofthelow-incomecategoryasleast-developedcountries(LDS欠发达国家)•GNIpercapita:$936to$3,705•ChinaistheBRICnationintheLower-Middle-IncomeCountries.Upper-Middle-IncomeCountries•Upper-Middle-IncomeCountries,alsoknowasindustrializingordevelopingcountryarethosewithGNPpercapitarangefrom$3,706to$11,455.Upper-Middle-IncomeCountries•Characteristics–Rapidlyindustrializing,lessagriculturalemployment–Increasingurbanization–Risingwagesbutstilllowerthanadvancedcountries–Highliter