德国DETECON对通讯行业XXXX展望报告(1)

MemberofDetecon´s2ndEuropeanTelcoSupplierEventJune17th,2004FrankfurtTheEmergingTelecommunicationsLandscape2010Dr.ArnulfHeuermannManagingPartnerPage2TheendoftheclassicalValueChain2.LongTermRestructuringofTraditionalTelcos3.MajorStrategicTrends1.TheemergingTelecommunicationsLandscape2010CoreBusinessandRolesofFuturePlayers4.Summary:ActionPointsforSuppliers5.ContentPage3ContentsStrategicTrends1.1.1Politics:Re-StructuringofRegulatoryEnvironment1.2Society:DemographicChangeandIndividualization1.3ITandSociety:PervasiveComputing1.4TelecommunicationsTechnology:NGNandMultiAccessServicePlatform1.5TechnologyandEconomics:FixedMobileConvergenceandMobileBusiness1.6OperatorEconomics:EconomiesofScaleversusEconomiesofSpecialization1.7StrategicDilemma:DemanddrivenDifferentiationvs.CostdrivenStandardization1.8SummaryPage4*CommunicationSectorAuthority=telecommunication+broadcasting1.StrategicTrends:Politics1.1Re-StructuringofRegulatoryEnvironmentThestructureandinstitutionsoftelecomsregulationsareundergoingatransformationwhichhasadirectimpactonthefutureoftheTelcosector.Organi-zationFixednetworksMobileNetworksBroadcastingServicesTelecomsServicesTelecomsBroadcastingServicesFixedMobileNetworksNetworksServices&ContentTelecomsSectorAuthorityCommunicationsSectorAuthority*TelecomsSector-specificLaws&RegulationsCommunicationsLaws&Regulations+generalcompetitionlawTraditionsPracticeCurrentDevelopmentsTomorrow‘sResultLawMarketPage5Demandforsecure,reliableandfastaccesstoinformationandcommunicationresourcesindependentoflocationMobilization/ChangingWorkPeopleareincreasinglymobile–forprivate/leisureandworkreasonsTribalismvs.UniversalismIndividualsocieties/socialgroupsorsegmentvs.globalizationofproductionRegionalDifferencesmustbetakenintoaccount.IndividualsindifferentgroupssharedifferentbeliefsandvaluesCreatenewinterfacestotechnologythattakeintoaccountthecommunicationhabitsofelderlyordisabledpersonsAgingSocietiesMoreoldpeople,longerlifeexpectanciesformasocialgroupwithno/littleexperienceconcerningtechnologyand„beingdigitallyconnected“AgingSocieties,RisingMobility,Individualization,andComplexityaremajortrendswithimportantconsequencesforfutureTelcoservicesandITapplications.1.StrategicTrends:Society1.2DemographicChangeandIndividualization(1)ImportantExamplesofTrendsandDevelopmentsChallenges/ConsequencesforTelcosPage6EaseofUse,IntelligentApplicationsandUserInterfacesTechnologyMasteryMoretechnologiesareemerging,itbecomesincreasinglyhardertomanageanduseallkindsoftechnologyCustomerSegmentation,MassCustomizationonaserviceandapplicationlevelIndividuali-sationAffiliationsandIdentitiesformmicrogroupsandsegmentsChoiceManagement,IntelligentSystemsRisingAffluenceRisingdiversityandchoiceofinformation,sources,productsandservicesAgingSocieties,RisingMobility,Individualization,andComplexityaremajortrendswithimportantconsequencesforfutureTelcoservicesandITapplications.1.StrategicTrends:Society1.2DemographicChangeandIndividualization(2)ImportantExamplesofTrendsandDevelopmentsChallenges/ConsequencesforTelcosPage7WithPervasiveComputingnewbusinessopportunitieswillbecreatedstimulatingdatacommunicationstrafficinparticularintheM2Msegment.1.StrategicTrends:InformationTechnologyandSociety1.3PervasiveComputing(1)EmergingTechnologies…Miniaturization„Microtechnology„NanotechnologyArtificialIntelligence„SoftwareAgents„LanguageRecognitionSeamlessInteraction„WebServices„WAN,LAN,PAN,BANTrackingandTracing„Tracking„LocalizationEnergySupply„Photovoltage,Mechanics,„Temperaturegradient„MegaMIPS„Tbit/in2(2010)„ExpertSystems„NetworkedAugmentedRealitySystems„Wearables„PictureReorganization„Fuelcells„Hydrogene…willboost…Page8WithPervasiveComputingnewbusinessopportunitieswillbecreatedstimulatingdatacommunicationstrafficinparticularintheM2Msegment.1.StrategicTrends:InformationTechnologyandSociety1.3PervasiveComputing(2)…NewApplicationsAll-day-life„Life:intelligenthome,SmartDust„Shopping:u-Commerce,SilentCommerce„SmartObjects:intelligentcoffeemachine,…Traffic„IndividualTraffic:RemoteControl,Drive-By-Wire„DriverlessPublicTransportWork„Empowerment:RemoteDecisionSupport„Infrastructure:IntelligentOffice,MobileIntelligence„Teamwork:Tele-Presence,VirtualWorkbenchHealth„Telechirurgy,Nanobots„Med.Telemetry,ArtificialSensesEntertainment„Media:E-Paper,AugmentedTV„MobileInternet,ARGames„Sports:VirtualTrainer„PersonalTravelAssistantPage9ServiceInaNGNWorldDifferentiationandInnovationStrategiesontheServiceLevelwillbecomeastrategicopportunity;cheap“trialanderror”introductionofnewservicesandindividualapplicationswillbepossible.1.StrategicTrends:TelecommunicationsTechnology1.4NGNandMultiAccessServicePlatformNetworkServiceLayerVPNCommerceMMSWAPVoicePortalMailMiddlewarePhysicalandTransportLayerControlLayerNetworkLayer2G2.5G3GWLLW-LANSatelliteCircuitSwitchedCSPackedSwitchedCSIP-CSMM-CSCSCFGWGWHSSAccessNetworkAccessNetworkPage10Networks/ServicesFixedandmobilenetworkswillmigrate,voice,dataaccessandserviceswillbeavailableoveronebasicIPnetwork.Nomoredifference,however,infixedandmobileservicesandapplications.1.Strate