标准普洱的行业报告

CURRENTENVIRONMENT..........................................................................................1INDUSTRYPROFILE..........................................................................................................7IndustryTrends..............................................................................................................9HowtheIndustryOperates...................................................................................15KeyIndustryRatiosandStatistics.....................................................................20HowtoAnalyzeanEntertainmentCompany...............................................21INDUSTRYREFERENCES.............................................................................................26COMPARATIVECOMPANYANALYSIS..............................................................29TomGraves,CFAMovies&HomeEntertainmentAnalystMAY10,2001/MOVIES&HOMEENTERTAINMENTTHISISSUEREPLACESTHEONEDATEDNOVEMBER16,2000.THENEXTUPDATEOFTHISSURVEYISSCHEDULEDFORNOVEMBER2001.INDUSTRYSURVEYSMovies&HomeEntertainmentEditor:EileenM.Bossong-MartinesCopyEditor:CarolA.WoodProductionCoordinators:LiWahLai,DebbyLee,SusannaLee,RoseYungStatistician:SallyKathrynNuttallAssistanttoEditor:PauletteDixonSubscriberrelations:1-800-852-1641Copyright©2001byStandard&Poor’sAllrightsreserved.ISSN0196-4666USPSNo.517-780VisittheStandard&Poor’swebsite:’SINDUSTRYSURVEYSispublishedweekly.Annualsubscription:$10,500.Reproductioninwholeorinpart(includinginputtingintoacomputer)prohibitedexceptbypermissionofStandard&Poor’s.ExecutiveandEditorialOffice:Standard&Poor’s,55WaterStreet,NewYork,NY10041.Standard&Poor’sisadivisionofTheMcGraw-HillCompanies.OfficersofTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.:HaroldMcGrawIII,Chairman,President,andChiefExecutiveOfficer;KennethM.Vittor,ExecutiveVicePresidentandGeneralCounsel;RobertJ.Bahash,ExecutiveVicePresidentandChiefFinancialOfficer;FrankD.Penglase,SeniorVicePresident,TreasuryOperations.PeriodicalspostagepaidatNewYork,NY10004andadditionalmailingoffices.POSTMASTER:SendaddresschangestoINDUSTRYSURVEYS,attentionMailPrep,Standard&Poor’s,55WaterStreet,NewYork,NY10041.InformationhasbeenobtainedbyINDUSTRYSURVEYSfromsourcesbelievedtobereliable.However,becauseofthepossibilityofhumanormechanicalerrorbyoursources,INDUSTRYSURVEYS,orothers,INDUSTRYSURVEYSdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,adequacy,orcompletenessofanyinformationandisnotresponsibleforanyerrorsoromissionsorfortheresultsobtainedfromtheuseofsuchinformation.VOLUME169,NO.19,SECTION1THISISSUEOFINDUSTRYSURVEYSINCLUDES3SECTIONS.Inanticipationofpossiblestrikesbycreativetalent,Hollywoodstudioshaveacceleratedtheirproductionschedulesformoviesandsometelevisionshows.TheWritersGuildofAmerica(WGA)contractforworkonmoviesandTVshows,coveringabout11,000movieandTVwriters,isduetoex-pireatmidnightMay1,2001.Additionally,acontractcoveringanestimated135,000ac-torsrepresentedbytheScreenActorsGuild(SAG)andtheAmericanFederationofTelevisionandRadioArtists(AFTRA)willexpireonJune30,2001.Inbothcases,con-tractnegotiationsaretobeconductedwiththeAllianceofMotionPictureandTelevisionProducers(AMPTP),whichrepresentsmorethan300productioncompaniesandstudios.TurmoilinTinseltown?Ifthecontractsexpirebeforetheyarerenegotiated,andiftheunionsgoonstrike,Standard&Poor’sdoesnotexpectthatei-thertheindustryorconsumerswillnoticeamajoreffectaslongastheconflictcanbere-solvedwithinafewweeks.However,alonger-termworkstoppagecouldsignificant-lydisruptprime-timeTVprogramminginthenewbroadcastseasonthatbeginsinSeptember2001.Itmayalsoalterthechoicesatmovietheatersinearly2002.Uncertaintyaboutwhatshowswillbeavailableforthefalltelevisionschedulesmaycreateaddition-aldifficultyforbroadcasterstryingtosellfu-tureadvertisingtime,ontopofwhatwillprobablybeasoftsalesenvironment.Alengthyworkstoppagewouldalsolike-lycontributetoagrowingamountof“reali-ty”programmingontheair.Thisgenre,typicallyfeaturingnonactorsinsituationswhoseoutcomeisunscripted,hasalreadybe-comepopularwiththesuccessofsuchshowsasSurvivor,WhoWantstobeaMillionaire,andWeakestLink.Inourview,amongthevariousoutletsforTVprogramming,thema-jorbroadcastnetworks—ABC,CBS,NBC,andFOX—generallyhavemoretolosefromastrikethanthecablenetworksdo,sincetheytendtoairmorefirst-runscriptedcomediesanddramasfeaturingGuild-repre-sentedactors.Ifnewprime-timeepisodesofsuchshowsarescarce,itincreasesthelikeli-hoodthatviewerswillsamplesomeofthemanyotherviewingchoices.Amongthemajorbroadcastnetworks,weseeABC’sprime-timeline-upasthebestpro-tectedagainstaprolongedstrike.Weexpectthatnetworktobeabletocontinuerunningatleastfournewhour-longepisodesperweekoftheMillionairequizshow,whichaccountsforcloseto20%ofABC’sprime-timesched-ule.Forallofthenetworks,someshowsmaybeexemptedfromawalkoutbyalaborgroup,suchastheScreenActorsGuild,grant-ingawaivertocertainproducers,inreturnfortheseproducers’agreementtoacceptfu-turecontractterms.StickingpointsFinancialcompensationislikelytobeakeycomponentoflabornegotiationswithHollywoodcreativetalent.Althoughmi