海通石油化工行业报告

[e-mail]200220030.1140.153.94.352.832.8713.5626.319.1919.363.925.0320.8035.248.9311.540.390.33200405142004051920031763.743.6%21.63%20039112.6200231.29%8299.333.43%200520030420.37%EPS20032004E2005E6006880.1920.420.490008660.711.041.156000960.5430.710.796003090.60.60.862003GDP3.9%90%2005200320031138373.5%20035703.823%13.9%1763.743.6%21.63%20%200339200310%16.11%2004200320020.12/20031.63/50%2003200476.45%200450%iABSTRACTOilandpetrochemicalsindustryisinastyle.TheincreasingrateofworldGDPcameto3.9%,andtheoperatingrateofcapacityofethylenewasnearly90%.It’sestimatedthattheoperatingratewillbeincreasinginthecomingyears.Andthesametime,America’seconomybecomeswellandChina’seconomycontinuestodevelop,wethinkthepeakofpetrochemicalsindustry’sboomingcyclewillappearinthesecondhalfof2005.Ouroilandpetrochemicalsindustryachievedgoodsuccessin2003.priceofmanypetrochemicalproductsrose,theaddedvalueoftheindustrywas57.04billion,up23%yoy,andthetotalprofitincreased43.6%yoy.Oilandpetrochemicalsindustryisstillinthedevelopingmomentuminthefirstquarterof2004.Inoilexplorationandproductionsector,theaddedprofitofthesectorwashigherthanothersectors.Duetothedevelopmentofworldeconomy,depreciationofUSdollarandtheturbulenceofMiddleEast,oilpriceincreasedover10%yoy,whichbroughtthemarginofthesectorrising.Weestimatedtheprofitofoilexplorationcompanieswouldgetsatisfactorysuccessin2004.Inrefiningsector,thepricesofpetrolanddieseloilincreasedwiththeincreasingofoilprice,therefiningmarginincreasedfrom0.12to1.63perbarrel.ButtoChineserefiningcompanies,theycan’tcontrolpricesofmaterialsandproducts,theyareonlypriceacceptors,sotheprofitofthesecompaniesislow.Inchemicalsector,pricesofmanychemicalproductsincreased,andtheoperatingrateofchemicalcompaniesincreasedtoo.Withthegreatincreasingin2003,totalprofitofthesectorincreased76.45%inthe1stquarterof2004.weestimatedthenetprofitofShanghaiPetrochemicalandYangziPetrochemicalwouldincreasedover50%yoy.Finally,wemakecompany-valuationbasedonthefinancialratioofeachlistedcompaniesfooilandpetrochemicalsindustry,meanwhile,givedetailedanalysisonsomevaluablecompanies,suchasShanghaiPetrochemical(600688),YangziPetrochemical(000866),Yuntianhua(600096)andWanHuaPolyurethane(600309).ii....................................................................................................................................11.........................................................................................................................................11.12003............................................................11.2........................................................................................................21.3........................................................................................................21.4.....................................................................................31.52005...................................................................................51.6.................................................................................................................................5........................................................................................................................................72.............................................................................................................................................72.10310%................................................................................72.22003................................................................................................82.3........................................................................................82.4......................................................................................................102.5..........................................................................................................112.6......................................................................................................................123...........................................................................................................................................123.1..............................................................................................123.2..............................................................................................................133.3..............................................................................................................133.4..............................................................................................................................13..............................................................................................................................................154...........................................................................................................................................154.1..........................................................................................154.250%.......