中国电力行业GHG减排的政策和

AnalysisofGHGMitigationPolicyandImplicationsinChina‘sElectricitySector中国电力行业GHG减排的政策和影响分析2009-5-11,BeijingHaopingWang,TsinghuaUniversity王昊平，清华大学Researchobjective研究目的Mainobjective:HowcanChinacontributetomitigationofGHGemissionsinthePost-KyotoPeriod?目的：在后京都时代，中国可以如何更多的减缓温室气体排放？Answerfollowingquestions:回答以下问题：Whatarethemainchallengesandopportunitiesofthemostcarbon-intensivesectors?主要高耗能行业的温室气体减排有哪些机遇和挑战？Electricity,IronandSteel,CementandAluminum电力，钢铁，水泥和铝业Howcandomesticpolicyandinternationalcooperationmechanismspromotemitigationtechnologiesmoreefficiently?如何设计国内政策和国际合作机制来促进减排技术和政策在中国的发展？TableofContents目录TheChinesePowerSector中国电力行业MitigationOptionsanditsPotential减排技术和减排潜力Scenarios减排情景PotentialandCosts减排潜力和减排成本Analysisofkeymitigationoptions关键减排技术分析IGCC-CCS整体煤气化联合循环-碳捕捉与封存WindPower风能DSM需求侧管理PotentialforInternationalCooperation潜在的国际合作机会Conclusion总结TheChinesePowerSector中国电力行业China‘sGDPandelectricitygeneration中国年GDP和年发电量之间的关系（1999-2006）0500100015002000250030001990199520002006Genaration(TWh)0500010000150002000025000GDP(BillionYuan)ElectricityGDPChina’sCO2-Emissionsin20052005年中国各行业的CO2排放比例Electricity;47%,or2.41GtCO2;ManufaturingandConstruction;31%OtherEnergyIndus.4%Transport;7%Residential;5%OtherSectors;6%World‘sCO2Emissionsin20062006年世界各国CO2的排放比例Non-OECDEurope1%China21%or4.9GtCO2LatinAmerica4%Asia10%UnitedStates21%MiddleEast5%FormerUSSR9%OECD(withoutUS)26%Africa3%Chineseelectricitysector’sBAUEmissions中国电力行业基础线排放量TotalCO2EmissionsinChina01000200030004000500060007000201520202025YearMMTCO2eCoalOilGasMitigationOptionsandPotential减排技术和减排潜力MitigationOptions减排选择DemandSideManagement(DSM)需求侧管理ReconstructionofConventionalThermalPower常规火电厂改造Supercritical/Ultra-SupercriticalPlants(SC/USC)超临界、超超临界发电厂IntegratedGasificationCombinedCycle(IGCC)整体煤气化联合循环CarbonCaptureandStorage(CCS)碳捕捉和储存RenewableEnergy可再生能源MarginalAbatementCurvein20202020年边际减缓曲线-40040801201602000100200300400500600Marginalabatementcost(US$/metrictonCO2)CumulativeCO2emissionreduction(MMt)Interpretation图解0-50MMt:MACarenegative(incomeduetoenergysavingishigherthanitsrelatedcosts);边际成本为负50MMt–480MMt:MACarepositivebutlow;raisinguntil480MMt(costsofenergyefficiencyimprovementmeasuresarehigherthantherevenues);边际成本为正，但保持较低水平Abruptriseofmitigationcostsby480MMtofCO2reductionduetomeasureswithmuchhighercoststhanrevenues.边际成本急剧上升5MitigationScenarios(1)五种减排情景Methodology方法:Literatureresearch;文献调研Multipleinterviewswithexperts;专家访谈CalculationModelswithspecificassumptions.基于一定假设下的模型计算5MitigationScenarios(2)五种减排情景Scenario1Allmitigationmeasureswhichhavenetnegativemarginalcostsareimplemented,suchasDSM.采用负边际成本的减排措施，如DSM。Scenario2Allmitigationmeasures(withrisingcostsalongthecostcurve)withtotalaggregatedcosts=0areimplemented,suchasDSMandSC/USC.采用总成本为零的技术组合，如DSM和SC/USC。Scenario3Allmitigationmeasures(withoutconsiderationofcosts)areimplementedtoachievethemaximumGHGreductionamount.采用能获得最大减排量的措施（不考虑成本）。5MitigationScenarios(3)五种减排情景Scenario4Allmitigationmeasuresuptoaspecifiedhighercostlevelareimplemented,suchasDSM,SC/USC,reconstructionofconventionalthermalpower,nuclearpowerandnaturalgas.采用特定成本的减排措施，如DSM,SC/USC,常规火电产改造、核能和天然气。Scenario5Allmitigationmeasuresuptoahighercostlevelareimplemented;additionally,someselectedhighcostmeasuresrequiringtransferofadvancedtechnologyareimplemented(IGCC-CCS,windpower).采用特定成本的减排措施，并加入一些技术转让成本高的技术，如IGCC-CCS,windpower。ReductionPotentialandCosts减排潜力和减排成本EmissionReductionPotential0,00100,00200,00300,00400,00500,00600,00700,00800,00900,00201520202025YearMTCO2Scenario1Scenario2Scenario3Scenario4Scenario5CostsperEmissionReductionUnit-10,00-5,000,005,0010,0015,0020,0025,0030,0035,00YearUSD/tCO2Scenario1Scenario2Scenario3Scenario4Scenario5Results结果Scenario3gainsthelargestamountofemissionreductions;however,therelatedcostsarealsothehighest;情景三：最大的减排量和最高的减排成本。Scenario1isthecheapestoption,buttheemissionreductionamountarealsothelowest;情景一：最小的减排量和最低的减排成本。Theotherscenariosallrepresentpossibletradeoffoptionswithdifferentlevelsofmitigationandrelatedcosts.其他情景：不同水平减排量和减排成本的组合方案Barriersformitigation减排障碍China’srapideconomicgrowthandtheexpansionofitspowersectormakesitmoredifficulttomitigateitsGHGemissions;中国电力行业的快速增长导致GHG减排上的困难TechnicalandfinancialbacklogofChina’spowersectorcomparedtodevelopedcountries;相对于发达国家，中国电力行业存在技术和财政的缺口LargeshareofSME’s(58%)withlowtechnicalandfinancialcapacitiesamongthepowercompanies;低技术和少资金的中小型企业占较大比例Socialcostscausedbyusingadvancedmitigationtechnologies(unemployment,wagecuts).采用先进减排技术会导致较高的社会成本（失业、降低工资）Analysisofkeymitigationoptions关键减排技术分析SpecificMitigationOptions特定减排技术IGCC-CCS整体煤气化联合循环发电技术和碳捕捉及储存技术RenewableEnergy:WindPower可再生能源：风能DemandSideManagement需求侧管理IGCC-CCSIGCC:整体煤气化联合循环发电技术Combinationof综合了：CoalGasificationTechnologyand煤的气化技术和High-EfficiencyCombinedCyclePlant.高效联合循环技术。Benefits:优势Higherthermalefficiency更高的热效率Lowerpollutantsemission.减少污染物排放CCS:碳捕捉与封存技术Captureandhigh-pressurecollectionofCO2emittedbycoal-firedplantsunderhighpressure.对燃煤发电中产生的的二氧化碳进行捕捉和收集，在高压下收集浓缩二氧化碳气流。CostsandbenefitsofIGCCIGCC的成本与优势TechnologyTechnologicalavailablenow?Cost($/kW)EfficiencyMarket