搜索
3,,,,,,,,,,,,,200,,,?(),,,,,,,,,,(),,,,;3():1998-05-11111999325,,,C(e)(e),(),,,,,24,,,,,,,,;,,,,0170,1100,10,:100170=7;10,100130=3,0130,ei:c(ei)=-017eiei0013eieiE0ei,(i=1,2,,n)n(yi,x1i,x2i,,xmi),i=1,2,n,y=f(x1,x2,,xm)+e^y=f(x1,x2,,xm),y=^y+e,yi=^yi+ei,^yi=f(x1i,x2i,,xmi)ei=yi-^yi=yi-f(x1i,x2i,,xmi)i,i=1,2,,nei,c(ei),C=1nni=1c(ei):(1);(2);(3),,,:C=1nni=1c(ei),,C,:(1)C1=1nni=1e2i=1nni=1(yi-^yi)2,C1(2)C2=1nni=1e2i=1nni=1(yi-^yi)2,C2(3)C3=1nni=1ei=1nni=1yi-^yi,C3(4)C4=1nni=1eiyi=1nni=1yi-^yiyi,C42119991,,:(5)C=1nni=1C(ei)=1nni=1C(yi-^yi),C,,,f,C=1nni=1C(ei)C=1nni=1C(ei)=1nni=1e2i,,C=ni=1C(ei)=ni=1e2i,,C=1nni=1C(ei)=1nni=1ei,,C=ni=1C(ei)=ni=1ei,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,C=1nni=1C(ei),C=1nni=1C(ei),,,,,C=1nni=1C(ei),,,C=1nni=1C(ei)=1nni=1C(yi-^yi),,,,,()f1,f2,n,e11,e12,,e1n;e21,e22,,e2nC=1nni=1C(ei),1nni=1C(e1i)1nni=1C(e2i),f1:19791987(:),f1=11113227e011428if2=10411469+1716833i+11958i2(i=-1983),:31199932519791987(:)e1ie1iyie2ie2iyi1979651421510103840166010101198075142186010379616801088619818215-1117010142518901074119829218-31710104004138010472198310217-8162010839-1145010141198411915-8191010746-4129010359198514318-4131010300-3155010247198616917-1114010067-51120103021987201103194010196-5121010259--010384-010389:,,1989,3184%3189%,5%,,C=1nni=1C(ei)=1nni=1ei,1nni=1e1i=4113,1nni=1e2i=4114,,12C=1nni=1C(ei)=1nni=1e2i,1nni=1e21i=24131nni=1e22i=2016,21C=1nni=1C(ei)=1nni=1eiyi,1nni=1e1iyi=3184%1nni=1e2iyi=3189%,,12C=1nni=1C(ei),C(ei)=27eiei03eieiE0(i=1,2,,n)1nni=1C(e1i)=241771nni=1C(e2i)=21113,21,(),,(),,,,,,,4119991,,,,,,,,,j,j=yj-^yj(j=n+1,n+2,,n+m),C3=1mn+mj=n+1C(j),,C3=1mn+mj=n+1C(j),:(1)C31=1mn+mj=n+12j=1mn+mj=n+1(yj-^yj)2(2)C32=1mn+mj=n+12j=1mn+mj=n+1(yj-^yj)2(3)C33=1mn+mj=n+1j=1mn+mj=n+1yj-^yj(4)C34=1mn+mj=n+1jyj=1mn+mj=n+1yj-^yjyj(5)C3=1mn+mj=n+1C(j)=1mn+mj=n+1C(yj-^yj):J=C3iCi(i=1,2,3,4)J=C3C(:C3C),J,,nm,J,(nm),,,,1C.W.J.grnger.ForecstinginBusinessndEconomics.AcdemicPress.19802...1994,42,23304119961997,,1998,,,511999325