摩根斯坦利报告台湾lcd和ic卡行业分析

March27,2008TaiwanTFTLCD/DRAM/ICBackendAdjustingOurForecaststoReflectMacroConcernsConclusion:OurLCDTVforecastof26%Y/Ygrowthin2008,to100millionunits,factorsinmarketworriesaboutweakUSdemand.Weexpect08capextorise50%+,thoughcapex/salesshouldbeunder20%.AUOandCMOareourtoppickshere,at1.2x/1.1xforwardP/B,ontroughvaluations.Amongbackendfoundrystocks,ASEisourfavorite,basedonfasterthanindustrygrowthandacashpayoutthatshouldreacharecord75%.Weforecast9%Y/YrevenuegrowthforASEin2008onsharegain/outsourcingvs.a5%declineforsemiconductors.WiththeDRAMindustryatacyclicalbottomandweakbalancesheetsunabletosupportexpansion,DRAMsupplygrowthwillslowandpricesshouldreboundin3Q08.WeseePowertechasaqualityplay.What'sNew:InTFT,weraise2008EPSestimatesforAUO,CMO,Himax,andTPVonhighermargins.Welowerpricetargets/EPSestimatesforOptimax,Novatek,andRadianttoreflectNT$appreciation(andcompanyspecificsforOptimax).InDRAM,wecuttargetsandEPSestimatesbasedonweakDRAMpricingduetoover-supplyneartermandNT$appreciation.Inbackendfoundry,wereduce08/09EEPSonNT$appreciationandloweredsemiconductorforecastsduetomacroconcern(pleaserefertoBillLu’sresearch).Implications:OnmacroconcernsforapossibleextendedUS-ledrecession,were-visitourdownsidescenariosandstayaheadofconsensusondownwardEPSrevisions.Ourestimatesarebelowthestreet;stocksarealreadyontroughvaluationsbasedonourestimatesforTFT/DRAMandmid-cyclevaluationsforbackendcompanies.IndustryViewsIndustryIndustryViewTaiwanDRAMAttractiveTaiwanICPackaging&TestingAttractiveTaiwanTFTLCDAttractiveChinaTFTLCDAttractiveTopPicksAUO(2409.TW,O-V,NT$55.1,PTNT$82)CMO(3009.TW,O-V,NT$41.4,PTNT$60)ASE(2311.TW,O-V,NT$29.8,PTNT$39)Powertech(6239.TW,O-V,NT$110,PTNT$148)PriceTargetChangesNovatek(3034.TW,O-V)PTfromNT$188toNT$169Radiant(6176.TW,E-V)PTfromNT$52toNT$49Optimax(3051.TW,E-V)PTfromNT$22toNT$10.5Nanya(2408.TW,E-V)PTfromNT$20toNT$19Powerchip(5346.TW,O-V)PTfromNT$19toNT$17Inotera(3474.TW,O-V)PTfromNT$36toNT$33Winbond(2344.TW,E-V)PTfromNT$10.75toNT$10.5MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.CustomersofMorganStanleyintheUScanreceiveindependent,third-partyresearchoncompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch,atnocosttothem,wheresuchresearchisavailable.Customerscanaccessthisindependentresearchat=Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregisteredpursuanttoNASD/[e-mail][phone]MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHASIA/PACIFIC2MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHMarch27,2008TaiwanTFTLCD/DRAM/ICBackendInvestmentSummaryOnmacroconcernsforpossibleextendedUSledrecession,were-visitourdownsidescenariosandstayaheadofconsensusondownwardEPSrevisions.TFT:Weraiseour2008EPSestimatesforAUO,CMO,TPV,andHimaxonhighermargins,asourpreviousASPandcostassumptionsappeartohavebeenconservativedespiteNTDappreciation.WelowerourNovatektargetpricetoNT$169fromNT$188,reflectinglowerrevenueonweak1Q08andNTDappreciation.WecutourRadianttargetpricetoNT$49fromNT$52,reflectingtheimpactofexpensingemployeebonusesaswellasNTDappreciation.WelowerourOptimaxtargetpricetoNT$10.5fromNT$22,reflectinglowerrevenueandmarginassumptions.DRAM:WelowerourEPSestimatesduetoweakpricingandNTDappreciation.WeconsequentlycutourtargetpricesforNanya,Powerchip,Inotera,andWinbondonlowerrevenueandmarginassumptions.Backendfoundry:WelowerEPSestimatesforICpackagingandtestingonNTDappreciationandthedowngradeinglobalsemiconductorforecastsbecauseofmacroconcerns(pleaserefertoMarkLipacisandBillLu’sresearch).Sensitivities:1)ForDRAMandTFT,ASPisthemostrelevantfactor,webelieve.A1%ASPdeclinewillreduceDRAMEPSestimatesby7-8%andTFTEPSestimatesby4-8%.2)1%NTDappreciationwilllowerEPSestimatesfortheTFTcompanieswecoverby3-5%(Radiant9%),forDRAMcompaniesby1-2%(Powerchip7%),andforbackendfoundrycompaniesby2-3%.3)A10%goldpriceincreasewillreduceASE/SPILEPSestimatesby7-8%.4)A25bpinterest-ratehikewilllowerearningsbyabout1%forcapital-intensivecompaniesinTFTLCD,DRAM,andbackendfoundry.3MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHMarch27,2008TaiwanTFTLCD/DRAM/ICBackendExhibit1MorganStanleyEPS(IncludingBonusExpensing)Estimatevs.ConsensusTickerCompanyName2008(MS)2008(Consensus)Difference(%)2009(MS)2009(Consensus)Difference(%)2008EPSGrowth(MS)2009EPSGrowth(MS)TFT2409.TWAUO(NT$)8.279.85-165.398.57-3781%-35%3009.TWCMO(NT$)7.017.21-33.786.18-3995%-46%3481.TWInnolux(NT$)7.457.3418.408.52-184%13%0903.HKTPV(UScents)9.659.50210.2010.32-119%6%HIMX.OHimax(US$)0.680.6460.700.73-418%3%3034.TWNovatek(NT$)11.2411.80-512.2311.39719%9%5371.TWOCoretronic(NT$)4.905.11-44.064.82-1629%-17%6176.TWRadiant(NT$)4.965.58-114.395.70-2325%-12%3051.TWOptimax(NT$)0.010.03-700.292.07-86NMNM%DRAM2408.TWNanya(N