做有责任的人主题班会课件PPT

Chapter7InternationalParityConditionsQuestions1.PurchasingPowerParity.Definethefollowingterms:a.Thelawofoneprice.Thelawofonepricestatesthatifidenticalproductsorservicescanbesoldintwodifferentcountries,andnorestrictionsexistonthesaleortransportationcostsofmovingtheproductbetweenthecountries,theproduct’spriceshouldbethesameinbothcountries.Comparingpricesacrosscountriesrequiresonlyaconversionfromonecurrencytotheother.Forexample,P$SP£wherethepriceoftheproductinU.S.dollars(P$),multipliedbythespotexchangerate(S,poundssterlingperU.S.dollar),equalsthepriceoftheproductinBritishpounds(P£).b.Absolutepurchasingpowerparity.Ifthelawofonepriceweretrueforallgoodsandservices,thepurchasingpowerparityexchangeratecouldbefoundfromanyindividualsetofprices.Bycomparingthepricesofidenticalproductsdenominatedindifferentcurrencies,onecoulddeterminethe“real”orPPPexchangeratewhichshouldexistifmarketswereefficient.Thisistheabsoluteversionofthetheoryofpurchasingpowerparity.AbsolutePPPstatesthatthespotexchangerateisdeterminedbytherelativepricesofsimilarbasketsofgoods.c.Relativepurchasingpowerparity.IftheassumptionsoftheabsoluteversionofPPPtheoryarerelaxedabitmore,weobservewhatistermedrelativepurchasingpowerparity.ThismoregeneralideaisthatPPPisnotparticularlyhelpfulindeterminingwhatthespotrateistoday,butthattherelativechangeinpricesbetweentwocountriesoveraperiodoftimedeterminesthechangeintheexchangerateoverthatperiod.Morespecifically,ifthespotexchangeratebetweentwocountriesstartsinequilibrium,anychangeinthedifferentialrateofinflationbetweenthemtendstobeoffsetoverthelongrunbyanequalbutoppositechangeinthespotexchangerate.2.NominalEffectiveExchangeRateIndex.Explainhowanominaleffectiveexchangerateindexisconstructed.Anexchangerateindexisanindexthatmeasuresthevalueofagivencountry’sexchangerateagainstallotherexchangeratesinordertodetermineifthatcurrencyisovervaluedorundervalued.Anominaleffectiveexchangerateindexisbasedonaweightedaverageofactualexchangeratesoveraperiodoftime.ItisunrelatedtoPPPandsimplymeasureschangesintheexchangerate(i.e.,currencyvalue)relativetosomearbitrarybaseperiod.Itisusedincalculatingtherealeffectiveexchangerateindex.3.RealEffectiveExchangeRateIndex.Whatformulaisusedtoconvertanominaleffectiveexchangerateindexintoarealeffectiveexchangerateindex?Arealeffectiveexchangerateindexadjuststhenominaleffectiveexchangerateindextoreflectdifferencesininflation.Theadjustmentisachievedbymultiplyingthenominalindexbytheratioofdomesticcoststoforeigncosts.Therealindexmeasuresdeviationsfrompurchasingpowerparity,andconsequentlypressuresonacountry’scurrentaccountandforeignexchangerate.28Moffett/Stonehill/Eiteman•FundamentalsofMultinationalFinance,FourthEdition©2012PearsonEducation,Inc.PublishingasPrenticeHallTherealeffectiveexchangerateindexfortheU.S.dollar,$,REisfoundbymultiplyingthenominaleffectiveexchangerateindex,$,NEbytheratioofU.S.dollarcosts,C$,overforeigncurrencycosts,CFC,bothinindexform:$$$.RNFCCEEC4.RealEffectiveExchangeRates:JapanandtheUnitedStates.Exhibit7.3comparestherealeffectiveexchangeratesfortheUnitedStatesandJapan.Ifthecomparativerealeffectiveexchangeratewasthemaindeterminant,doestheUnitedStatesorJapanhaveacompetitiveadvantageinexporting?Whichofthetwohasanadvantageinimporting?Explainwhy.Exhibit7.3showsthattherealeffectiveexchangerateofthedollar,yen,andeurohavechangedoverthepastthreedecadesandthedatalendsomesupporttotheconceptthatPPPmayholdoverthelongrun.Thedollar’sindexvaluewassubstantiallyabove100inthe1980s(overvalued),buthasremainedbelow100(undervalued)sincethelate1980s(itdidriseslightlyabove100brieflyin1995–1996andagainin2001–2002).TheJapaneseyen’srealeffectiveratehasremainedabove100fornearlytheentire1980to2006period(overvalued).Intheory,acountrywithanundervaluedcurrencyshouldhavearelativeadvantageinexportingoverthosecountriessufferinganovervaluedcurrency.Similarly,anovervaluedcurrencyshouldresultinincreasedpurchasingpowerforimports.5.ExchangeRatePass-Through.Incompleteexchangeratepass-throughisonereasonthatacountry’srealeffectiveexchangeratecandeviateforlengthyperiodsfromitspurchasingpowerequilibriumlevelof100.Whatismeantbythetermexchangeratepass-through?Incompleteexchangeratepass-throughreferstothedegreetowhichthepricesofimportedandexportedgoodschangeasaresultofexchangeratechanges.AlthoughPPPimpliesthatallexchangeratechangesarepassedthroughbyequivalentchangesinpricestotradingpartners,empiricalresearchinthe1980squestionedthislong-heldassumption.Forexample,sizeablecurrentaccountdeficitsoftheUnitedStatesinthe1980sand1990sdidnotrespondtochangesinthevalueofthedollar.6.TheFisherEffect.DefinetheFishereffect.TowhatextentdoempiricaltestsconfirmthattheFishereffectexistsinpractice?TheFishereffect,namedaftereconomistIrvingFisher,statesthatnominalinterestratesineachcountryareequaltotherequiredrealrateofreturnpluscompensationforexpectedinflation.Moreformally,thisisderivedfrom(1r)(1)–1:irrwhereiisthenominalrateofinterest,ristherealrateofinterest,andistheexpectedrateofinflationovertheperiodoftimeforwhichfundsaretobelent.Thefi