普华永道关于移动行业的趋势分析

AnIntegratedApproachtoBilling,CallCenterandCustomerRelationshipManagementADiscussionDocumentAugust31,2000PricewaterhouseCoopers2AgendaContextKeyissuesforChinaMobileTheCommunicationsEnterpriseSolutionArchitecture(CESA)CustomerRelationshipManagement(CRM)AboutPricewaterhouseCoopersPricewaterhouseCoopers3Context•ChinaMobilefacinggrowingcompetitionfrombothUnicomandChinaTelecom•CMCC’sbillingandITinfrastructureareinadequatetosustaincompetitiveadvantage•LargescaleandrapidITinfrastructuredevelopmentisrequired•CMCChasrequestedPricewaterhouseCoopers’assistanceinbuildingaworldclassITinfrastructure•Wearetheundisputedleadersinthisareaworldwide,andhaveuniquedeliverycapabilitiesinChinaPricewaterhouseCoopers4KeyIssuesforChinaMobileKeyTrendsinMobileTelecomsPricewaterhouseCoopers5AverageRevenuePerSubscriberisdeclining...…keepingEBITDAmarginsflat40.0%41.0%42.0%43.0%44.0%45.0%46.0%47.0%48.0%49.0%50.0%19981999200020012002EBITDA%USACellularEBITDA%1998-2002Source:DLJNote:Thisdatarepresentsresultsfora“typical”cellularcompanyThevalueofmobilevoiceserviceshaspeaked.MuchofthevaluegrowthintheUSisnowsubstitutiveMobilevoiceismaturingSonera'sARPUdevelopment1991-199901020304050607080199119921993199419951996199719981999ARPU($)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Mobilepenetration(%)ARPUPenetration*Soneraisre-brandedTelecomFinlandMobilePricewaterhouseCoopers6Itisthoughtthatdataserviceswillultimatelyfillthis“valuegap”,withmobiledevicesbecomingtheECommerce“toolofchoice”formostconsumersIntheUS,mobilevaluationsgenerallyexceedcashgenerationbyasignificantmarginVoiceServicesOther70%100%%MobileValue•FMC•Substitution•Data/BroadbandPricewaterhouseCoopers7Investorsbelievethattheintroductionofmobiledatatechnologieswillcreatesignificantnewopportunities...Asia--Japan,HongKong,Taiwan,andSingapore--portendtobeleadersintheintroductionofmobiledataapplicationsData9.6-14.5kbpsSMSHSCSDGPRS115.2kbpsEDGEWCDMA384kbps-2MbpsData9.6SMSCDPD19.2kbpsCDPD,GPRS57.6-115.2kbps136+115.2-384kbpsWCDMA384kbps-3MbpsInformationBroadcast:Weather;banking;news;stocksFiletransfer;downloadInfoaccess:Intranetaccess:“on”line;MobileISP;imagetransferInfoaccess;Intranetaccess;realtimeapps;,interactivesessions19981999-20002000-012001-02Wirelessmultimedia,voice,video,multimediaapplications,M-commerce2002+GSMTDMAPDCData28.8kbpsSMSWCDMA384kbps-3MbpsPricewaterhouseCoopers8ProjectionsofWAP,CellularSubs,andInternetSubsGrowth-200,000,000400,000,000600,000,000800,000,0001,000,000,0001,200,000,0001,400,000,0001996199719981999200020012002200320042005ProjectedCellularSubscribersProjectedPC'sConnectedtotheInternet(Dataquest10/98)ProjectedWAPHandsetsManybelievethatInternetaccesswillmovetothe“handset”PricewaterhouseCoopers9MobiledatawillenablemyriadnewserviceopportunitiesConsumerBusinessOtherInformationServicesEntertainmentGamesBankingE-CommerceE-mailVideotelephonyPersonalnavigationInternetaccessDatabasesearchCorporatedatabasesEmailFiletransferIntranetaccessInternetaccessVehiclenavigationVideotelephonySpecialistproducts:TelemetryMachinemonitoringNavigation&logisticsproductsAlternativeproducts:ReturnchannelsforbroadcasttechnologiesWirelesshomesPricewaterhouseCoopers10MobiledatawillcreateanewvaluechainformobileoperatorsThecombinationofmultipleservicesandsegmentswillleadtothedevelopmentofacomplexnewvaluechainthatcombinescontent,transportandsolutionsActivitiesCustomerTraditionalMobileValueChainNetworkManagementServiceProvisionNetworkplanningNetworkconstructionNetworkoperationSalesandmarketingBillingCustomercareActivitiesCustomerContent•Production,distributionandaggregationofcontent•Editors,Magazines,On-Line,andPortals•Coreandaccesstransmissionofdata•Internetbackboneproviders,Accessproviders(e.g.GSMandUMTS)TransportSolutions•Hardwareandsoftwaresolutionsenablingtheproductstobeused•Smartphones,PDAsandInternetbrowsers;CorporateIntranetsoftwareExamplesFutureMobileValueChainPricewaterhouseCoopers11…transportandaccesswillbecome“lowvalue”commodities...Intheconsumermarket,asthenetworkbecomesunbundled,valuecreationwillmigratetoeithercontentorsolutionsConsumersCONTENTSERVICECREATIONINTEGRATIONMOBILETERMINALSTRANSPORTValueAddedServiceProviderACCESSTransportSolutionsContentOperatorMediaPortals…owninganetworkwillnotbeessentialforparticipationinthemobileconsumermarket...PricewaterhouseCoopers12Inthecorporatemarket,mobileoperatorsmaylosedirectcustomeraccessSolutionprovidersarepoisedtocaptureamajorityofthevalue...ITFixedTelecomsMobileTelecomsCorporateTodayCorporateMobileTelecomsCorporateITSolutionProvidersFixedTelecomsTheFuturePricewaterhouseCoopers13MNCLargeNationalSMEPersonalHouseholdContentTransportSolutionsMostexistingmobileoperatorsarenotwell-positionedexceptinthetraditionalpersonalsegmentPoorlyPositionedModeratelyPositionedWell-PositionedCustomerSegmentsPricewaterhouseCoopers14PersonalCorporateGSM(TDMA/CDMA)GSMGPRSDECTOtherUMTSEDGEGMPCSCountryXCountryYThismayleadtoa“mobilenetworkbreak-up”This“breakup”isconsistentwithwhathashappenedinfixedlineservices...PricewaterhouseCoopers15KeyNear-Te