标准普尔的电信行业分析报告

CURRENTENVIRONMENT........................................................................................1INDUSTRYPROFILE......................................................................................................12IndustryTrends.........................................................................................................14HowtheIndustryOperates.................................................................................20KeyIndustryRatiosandStatistics...................................................................30HowtoAnalyzeaWirelessTelecomCompany..........................................31GLOSSARY...........................................................................................................................37INDUSTRYREFERENCES...........................................................................................39COMPARATIVECOMPANYANALYSIS............................................................42CraigShere,CFATelecommunicationsAnalystKatherineDorrAbreuSeniorIndustrySpecialist,TelecommunicationsNOVEMBER1,2001/TELECOMMUNICATIONS:WIRELESSTHISISSUEREPLACESTHEONEDATEDDECEMBER28,2000.THENEXTUPDATEOFTHISSURVEYISSCHEDULEDFORMAY2002.INDUSTRYSURVEYSTelecommunications:WirelessEditor:EileenM.Bossong-MartinesCopyEditor:CarolA.WoodProductionCoordinators:LiWahLai,DebbyLee,SusannaLee,RoseYungStatistician:SallyKathrynNuttallAssistanttoEditor:PauletteDixonSubscriberrelations:1-800-852-1641Copyright©2001byStandard&Poor’sAllrightsreserved.ISSN0196-4666USPSNo.517-780VisittheStandard&Poor’swebsite:’SINDUSTRYSURVEYSispublishedweekly.Annualsubscription:$10,500.Reproductioninwholeorinpart(includinginputtingintoacomputer)prohibitedexceptbypermissionofStandard&Poor’s.ExecutiveandEditorialOffice:Standard&Poor’s,55WaterStreet,NewYork,NY10041.Standard&Poor’sisadivisionofTheMcGraw-HillCompanies.OfficersofTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.:HaroldMcGrawIII,Chairman,President,andChiefExecutiveOfficer;KennethM.Vittor,ExecutiveVicePresidentandGeneralCounsel;RobertJ.Bahash,ExecutiveVicePresidentandChiefFinancialOfficer;FrankD.Penglase,SeniorVicePresident,TreasuryOperations.PeriodicalspostagepaidatNewYork,NY10004andadditionalmailingoffices.POSTMASTER:SendaddresschangestoINDUSTRYSURVEYS,attentionMailPrep,Standard&Poor’s,55WaterStreet,NewYork,NY10041.InformationhasbeenobtainedbyINDUSTRYSURVEYSfromsourcesbelievedtobereliable.However,becauseofthepossibilityofhumanormechanicalerrorbyoursources,INDUSTRYSURVEYS,orothers,INDUSTRYSURVEYSdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,adequacy,orcompletenessofanyinformationandisnotresponsibleforanyerrorsoromissionsorfortheresultsobtainedfromtheuseofsuchinformation.VOLUME169,NO.44,SECTION2THISISSUEOFINDUSTRYSURVEYSINCLUDES2SECTIONS.Thewirelessmarketisenteringatransitionphaseaswidespreadconsumeracceptanceelicitsafinalsurgeinnewcustomeraddi-tionsandaltersthenatureofcompetition.AccordingtotheFederalCommunicationsCommission(FCC),thetotalU.S.cus-tomerbaseforwirelesscarrierswithatleast10,000facility-basedcustomersgrewby27%to101.2millionin2000,from79.7millionin1999,thelargestabsoluteincreaseinnewsubscribersinthewirelessindustry’shistory.BasedonestimatesfromtheCellularTelecommunications&InternetAssociation(CTIA),totalU.S.wirelesspenetrationreached39%oftheU.S.population(basedon109.5millionestimatedtotalcustomers).Inthefirsthalfof2001,thetopeightdomesticcarriersincreasedtheircustomerbaseby9.1%.However,thefourthquarterisusuallythestrongestfornewsubscriberadditions,andthepaceofnewwirelesscustomerstemporarilyacceleratedfollow-ingtheSeptember11terroristattacks.Therefore,Standard&Poor’sbelievesthattheabsoluteincreaseinnetcustomeraddi-tionsin2001willslightlyexceed23.5mil-lionestimatedbytheCTIAfor2000.Thepercentageincreasewillbesmaller,howev-er,andStandard&Poor’sprojectsbothproportionateandabsolutedeclinesinnetcustomeradditionsin2002.Aswirelessphonepenetrationapproachessaturationlevels(estimatedinthe60%–70%range),companieswillhavetobeginbattlingforexistingmarketshare.AccordingtoAlexanderResources,aresearchfirminDallas,Texas,annualwirelesssubscribergrowthintheUnitedStatesisexpectedtode-celeratetoroughly10%by2004andstabi-lizeinthelowsingledigitsby2009.Thebeginningofatrendtowardmatu-rationofwirelessservicesintheUnitedStatesisalreadyevidentinanumberofways.Withnationalflat-ratepricingplansnowbeingofferedbysixcarriers,wirelessserviceisbecomingmoreofacommodity.Inanefforttodifferentiatetheirofferings,carriersareemphasizingmarketingpro-grams,suchasenhancedbrandingcam-paigns(includingtheoverseasentryofvirtualnetworkoperators,orVNOs)andmorefocusedconsumermarketing(withspecificcampaignsaimedatSpanish-speak-ingandyoung“GenerationY”consumers).Inaddition,ascompetitionreachesanewlevel,theindustryisrestructuringthroughconsolidationandalliancestoexpandser-viceterritory,increasebrandawareness,andsharethecostoftechnologyupgrades.Thistransitionfromhighgrowthtoearlymaturationhaschangedthewayinvestorsevaluatewirelesscarriers.Asindustriesma-ture,themarketexpectstoseepos