能源行业分析

txho/11022ho0402color.pptACCELERATINGINNOVATIONINENERGYEnergyisKey...NowOctober22,2002Thisreportissolelyfortheuseofclientpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionoutsidetheclientorganizationwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Company.ThismaterialwasusedbyMcKinsey&Companyduringanoralpresentation;itisnotacompleterecordofthediscussion.txho/11022ho0402color.ppt1TODAY’SDISCUSSION•Capitalmarkets:ruthlessdriverofinnovation•CreativedestructionintheEnergyIndustry•WhatcanHoustondotoleadinnovationinEnergy?txho/11022ho0402color.ppt2LONG-TERMSURVIVALISDIFFICULT,ANDGETTINGMORESONote:NumberofexitsaveragedovertwentyyearperiodSource:McKinseyanalysis904530221519351955197519952005E•TheS&P500isabrutal,unemotionalyardstickofperformance•ThepaceofchangeisacceleratingImpliedlifetimeinS&P500basedoncompanyexitsinyearstxho/11022ho0402color.ppt3MARKETSWININTHELONGTERMOverallperformanceofS&P500wouldhavebeen…ifitweremadeupofthosecompaniesonthelistin1957about20%lessperyear…txho/11022ho0402color.ppt4HISTORICALPERFORMANCEHASBEENANALYZEDUSINGTHEMcKINSEYLONG-TERMPERFORMANCEDATABASE(PDB)PDBoverviewEnergysectorsFinancialdata(60items)for1,067companiesin16industriesfortheperiod1962-2000*IndustryNumberofcompaniesAirlines23CommodityChemicals36SpecialtyChemicals47Defense28MedicalSupplies66Software171Paper47Pharmaceuticals101Soap24Transportation25Semiconductors55Utilities104Oil170Telecommunications55Industries•Interestingdynamicstoanalyze•Morethan10playerswith50%ofsalesintherelevantSICcategoryCompanies•U.S.-based•BelongedtoapredeterminedSICcode•Obtainedatleast50%oftheirsalesfromspecifiedSICcode(“pure-play”)•Hadamarketcapwithinthetop80%ofallmarketcapvalues•CompaniesthatIPOedinlast4yearsmetbothmarketcapandpureplaycriteriaforthelast2years•Companieswereremovedonlywhentheymerged,gotacquiredorwentbankruptSelectioncriteriaTotalEnergysubtotal2741,067Computerhardware73Network42*Currently2000datahasbeenupdatedonlyforhightechcompaniesSource:McKinsey’slong-termperformancedatabasetxho/11022ho0402color.ppt5Source:McKinseyperformancedatabaseACROSSALLMAJORINDUSTRYSECTORS,NONEHASEXHIBITEDSUSTAINEDOUTPERFORMANCE..Economynormalrange-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%196919711973197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998Pharmaceuticals-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%196919711973197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998Defence-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%196919711973197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%196919711973197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998TelecomToiletries7-yearrollingnormalizedtotalreturntoshareholders:Selectindustriesvs.economytxho/11022ho0402color.ppt6Source:McKinseyperformancedatabase...INFACT,MANYINDUSTRIESRARELYORNEVEROUTPERFORM-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%1969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999Airlines-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%1969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999Paper-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%1969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999CommodityChemicals-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%1969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999SpecialtyChemicals7-yearrollingnormalizedtotalreturntoshareholders:Selectindustriesvs.economyEconomynormalrangetxho/11022ho0402color.ppt7IFYOU’REASURVIVOR,YOU’VEPROBABLYUNDERPERFORMEDTHEMARKET*CompaniesthatwereonthefirstS&P500listin1957andremainedonthelistthrough1995Source:McKinseyanalysis,McKinseycorporateperformancedatabase7-yearrollingnormalizedtotalreturntoshareholders:Long-termsurvivorsvs.economyEconomynormalrange(90%confidenceband)EconomyreturnEconomysurvivors*txho/11022ho0402color.ppt8OUTPERFORMANCECOMESFROMATTACKERS*Threeyearrollingaverage1962-95Source:McKinseyanalysis;McKinseycorporateperformancedatabaseYearsinsampleTRSrelativetoindustryaverage15101520-10%-5%0%5%10%15%25Survivor’scurseTotalreturntoshareholdersrelativetoindustryof“newentrants”intotop80%bymarketcap*Attacker’sadvantage..becomes…txho/11022ho0402color.ppt9SURVIVORSUNDERPERFORMBECAUSETHEYFAILTOCREATE,INNOVATE,ANDEXITQUICKLYENOUGH•Thesurvivor’smentalmodelfocusesonprotectingthecorebusiness•Survivorsareparalyzedbyfearof–Productcannibalization–Customerconflict–DilutiveacquisitionSurvivorssufferfromculturallock-inSalesTimeVision,ideas,passionInabilitytoinnovateFocusonoperationsDenialRationalityCreationandinnovationtxho/11022ho0402color.ppt10-1004009001,4001,9002,4002,9003,4003,900Jan-92Jul-92Jan-93Jul-93Jan-94Jul-94Jan-95Jul-95Jan-96Jul-96Jan-97Jul-97Jan-98Jul-98Jan-99Jul-99Jan-00Jul-00•StockpriceCAGR44%(vs.S&PCAGR13%)•#2onlinebrokerwith~20%oftotalonlineretailbrokeragemarketaccountsLaunchesonlinetradingSchwabassemblessecretdevelopmentteamCREATINGOPTIONS:CANNIBALIZINGDIRECTCHANNELSATSCHWABOnlinetradingbecomescorebusinessSource:Literaturesearch,companyreports,Bloomberg,McKinseyanalysisPercentchangeinstockpricesinceJan92SchwabS&P500S&PFinancetxho/11022ho0402color.ppt11-5,00005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Source:Datast