用SAFETI定量评价液氯泄漏事故的风险

()345JournalofSouthChinaUniversityofTechnologyVol.34No.520065(NaturalScienceEdition)May2006:10002565X(2006)0520103206:20052062163:(2002C32403):(19672),,,,.E2mail:[e-mail]311222(1.,510640;2.,510620):,SAFETI(SoftwareforAssessmentofFlammable,ExplosiveandToxicImpacts),,;SAFETI,,,,.:;;;SAFETI;;:[X937];X820.4:A,,.,,.,,.[1],,,.[2],20032005,29,11,3,6,4,5,.,,,,.,.(DetNorskeVerotas,DNV)SAFETI(SoftwareforAssessmentofFlammable,Explo2siveandToxicImpacts)[3].SAFETI[4]:,,,,;.DNV(),,,.SAFETI,,,.,,,.,.,SAFETI.11.1,,.70191,1147(0,369.77kPa),2149(),506.62kPa(5,10.3),.,1.56g/L(-34.6)[5].,,,.GB213,[6].,,.,,,.,,,,,.1.1[7]Table1Relationshipbetweenmassconcentrationandpoisondegreetohumanofchlorine/(mgm-3)/(mgm-3)0.061201803060min()130039,2500901.21945,.1909,,,,.,,,,.(),4[8]:(1).,12mm,10min,(,,).:.(2).,12mm,10min.:().(3).(0.5m),(60min),.:.(4).,,,(WorstCase).:.,,,.22.1(20,)50t,4.,4(2,2).,..1.,.,,;401()34,.132615mg/m3Fig.1Scopeprojectionofliquefiedchlorineleakinganddiffu2singto32615mg/m3aftertankerrupture2.24,2.21)Table2Representativeaccidentscenariostructuresandthein2putdataintheriskassessmentofmajorchlorineleakaccidents/kg5000012mm,5000012mm,500000.5m,50000,/(a-1)/(kgs-1)15000;10000(,)5.8E-42.73915000;100006.6E-40.24815000;100003E-69.37815000;100003E-71):20,.2,DNV,,SAFETI(CrystalReportsTM).,,[9],D,F.4:,2m/s,D;5m/s,D.,2m/s,D;2m/s,F.2.3SAFETI,,Pr=A+Bln(nt),:Pr,()[9],Pr,A,Bn,,,,mg/m3,t,min.SAFETI3.,3.1,SAFETI():(1),600s;(2)(EmergencyRe2sponsePlanningGuidelines,ERPG),3600s.3:1;2,;3;(3)(ImmediatelyDangeroustoLifeandHealth,IDLH),1800s;(4)(ShortTermExposureLimit,STEL),900s.,326.5mg/m3(5015:SAFETI3Table3Poisoneffectdistanceofcertainmassconcentrationincertainaccumulatetime/s/m:2m/s,:D:5m/s,:D:2m/s,:D:2m/s,:F326.5mg/m3()6001841.721841.811841.722445.36ERPG1(3.2)360019768.5023898.3019768.5061395.20ERPG2(9.6)360011794.2012606.0011794.2033855.00ERPG3(64)36002903.043346.052903.046845.904(500m)Table4Neededtimeofattaintorepresentativepoisonmassconcentrationincertaindistance(500m)/s:2m/s,:D:5m/s,:D:2m/s,:D:2m/s,:F326.5mg/m358.7639.6758.7656.50ERPG1(3.2)37.7731.9537.7738.41ERPG2(9.6)39.2232.4739.2239.07ERPG3(64)52.0638.4652.0649.87),(600s)ERPG(3600s),500m,SAFETI.4,.SAFETI,,.3,4(500m),326.5mg/m31,2.2Fig.2Relationcurvesoffatalityprobabilityanddistanceintankerrupture2.4,,..,.ALARP(AsLowAsReasonablyPracticable),[10];(1),.F2N(Frequency2NumberofFatali2ties),,F2N.,,,;,,;,[10].,(),.,1E-3/a,1E-5/a.601()34F2N,:,,;,;,,.34F2N;5.3Fig.3Individualriskisoclinesofchlorineleakaccidentintheday4F2NFig.4SocietalriskF2Ncurvesofchlorineleakaccidentintheday5Table5Individualriskinthecertainriskpointandsocietalriskcausedbyaccident/(a21)/(a-1)3.95E-61.12E-31.83E-53.93E-3,.,,,,,.3(1),4,().SAFETI50t,,,2445.36m10min,.,,.(2),SAFETI[11].SAFETI,,,,,,,.(3)SAFETI,,,,,,,,,.:[1].[J].,2004,4(6):17225.ChangZhan2hua.Emergencyresponseofaccidentsofre2leasing,explodingandpoisoningofchlorine[J].SafetyHealth&Environment,2004,4(6):17225.7015:SAFETI[2],.[J].,2005(2):15216.WangTong,ZhaoMing.Howtodealwithleakageaccidenthappenedinliquefiedchlorinetransportation[J].Safety,2005(2):15216.[3].DNV[J].,2000,17(3):37239.YuQi2jie.ApplicationofDNVsoftwareinaccidentanaly2zes[J].PetrochemicalSafetyTechnology,2000,17(3):37239.[4]MarkBoult.RiskmanagementofLPGtransportactivitiesinHongKong[J].JournalofHazardousMaterials,2000,71(3):852100.[5].[M].:,1999.[6].[M].:,1991.[7]EllenhornMJ.Medicaltoxicology2diagnosisandtreatmentofhumanpoisoning[M].NewYork:ElsevierSciencePublishingCompany,1988:8782879.[8]LeesFrankP.Losspreventionintheprocessindustries[M].2nded.NewYork:ElsevierSciencePublishingCompany,1996.[9].[M].:,2000.[10],.[J].,2004,30(10):45247.DingHou2cheng,WangCheng2le.Preliminaryanalysisonvalueofriskassessmentcriteria[J].IndustrialSafetyandEnvironmentalProtection,2004,30(10):45247.[11],.SAFETILPG[J].,2006,25(2):53258.LiangTao,ChenGuo2hua.ApplicationresearchofSAFETIonthefatalaccidentconsequenceassessmentinLPGstoragetanks[J].Oil&GasStorageandTranspor2tation,2006,25(2):53258.QuantitativeRiskAssessmentofLiquefiedChlorineLeakageAccidentviaSAFETIChenGuo2hua1LiangTao1ZhangHui2YanWei2wen2ChenQing2guang2(1.InstituteofSafetyEngineering,SouthChinaUniv.ofTech.,Guangzhou510640,Guangdong,China;2.GuangdongInstituteofSafetyScienceandTech.,Guangzhou510620,Guangdong,China)Abstract:Basedontheanalysisofsafetystatusandthestatisticofaccidentsinthestorageandtransportationoflique2fiedchlorine,thehazardcharacteristicsofchlorineandthepoisonfatalnesscausedbytheleakageinthestorageandtransportationofliquefiedchlorineareanalyzed,withthequantitativerisk2analyzingsoftwareSAFETI(SoftwareforAssessmentofFlammable,ExplosiveandToxicImpacts)intheDNVbeingadopted.Then,thetypesofleakageaccidentsthatmayhappeninthestorageandtransportationofliquefiedchlorinearesummedup,andaquantitativeassessmentforthetoxicconsequenceandriskinaliquefiedchlorinetankerleakageiscarriedoutusingSAFETI,withtherelevantassessmentmodelsbeingestablished.Bytheproposedmodels,theconsequencesandrisksofac2cidentsareforecastedandsimulated,andthehazarddegreeandrang,aswellasthe