概率风险评价及其应用-颜兆林

(,410073):简要介绍了概率风险评价(PRA)的发展过程,对其基本原理实施程序及成功的应用进行了阐述,提出了其应用发展应着重的几个问题及研究对策:;;1,,,,,,,,,,,,(PRA:ProbabilisticRiskAssessment),,,,,[1,2,3],,1972(AEC),,(NRC)PRA/0,NASA(),[2],PRA,ESA(),[3]PRA2PRAPRA,PRA,,PRA:(1)#26#劳动保护科学技术2000年第20卷第6期,(2),,,FMEAHAZOP(3),,(4),,,,(5),,,(6),PRA,,,,PRA)3PRAPRA,,PRA,PRA,,PRA,,/0,NASA,PRA,NASAESA,PRA[4]PRAESA,ESAPRA,PRA,;,PRA,,;,PRA,;概率风险评价及其应用颜兆林周经伦龚时雨唐勇#27#,PRA[3],,PRA[1]4PRAPRA,:(1),,,,,(2),,PRA,,,PRA[5](3)FT/ETPRAFT/ET,/,;,,,PRA,,,,,,PRA[6](4),,,,50%~90%,,PRA,PRA[7],[8](5)PRA,,,NASAESA[4,9],#28#劳动保护科学技术2000年第20卷第6期ITEMHAZOPFME-CASCA;FTAGeFMECA[10]PRA,:#PRA;#PRA;#PRA;#;#5PRAPRA,,,PRA:[1]H.Kumamoto&E.J.Henley.ProbabilisticRiskAssessmentandManagementforEngieersandScientists.IEEEPRESS,2nded.1996[2]E.S.Beckjord.ProbabilisticsafetyassessmentintheUnitedStates1972-1990.ReliabilityEngineeringandSystemSafety39(1993)159-170[3]P.Kafka.ProbabilisticSafetyAssessment(PSA)Technology-howitworks,whatdoesitdo,wherearethegaps.SafetyandReliabilityAssessment-AnIntegralApproach,393-404[4]C.Preyssl.Safetyriskassessmentandmanagement-theESAapproach,ReliabilityEngineeringandSystemSafety49(1995)303-309[5]J.R.Fragola.Reliabilityandriskanalysisdatabasedevelopment:anhistoricalperspective,ReliabilityEngineeringandSystemSafety51(1996)125-136[6]N.Siu.Riskassessmentfordynamicsystems:Anoverview,ReliabilityEngineeringandSystemSafety43(1994)43-73[7]G.W.Parry.CritiqueofCurrentPracticeinthetreatmentofHumanInteractioninProbabilisticSafetyAssessment.ReliabilityandSafetyAssessmentofDynamicProcessSystem,1992,156-165[8]M.Grabowski&K.H.Roberts.Humanandorganizationalerrorinlargescalesystems,IEEETransactionsonSystems,Man,andcybernetics-PartA,1996,26(1)2-16[9]G.Maggio.SpaceShuttleProbabilisticRiskAssessment:Method&Application.1996ProceedingsAnnualReliabilityandMaintainabilitysymposium,121-132[10]..,1997(6):2000-06-12长寿三要素据国内外专家分析,现代人口死亡的原因主要是慢性病分析我国人口死因前5位是:(1)脑血管病,占2611%;(2)心脏病,占2117%;(3)癌瘤,占2014%;(4)意外死亡,占912%;(5)呼吸系统病病,占818%构成慢性病的因素是:(1)不良的生活方式和行为,占4618%;(2)不良的环境因素,占1718%;(3)遗传和社会等因素,占1516%;(4)保健服务制度不完善,占918%有人将人的寿命比作一个三角形,决定寿命的三条边分别是:(1)遗传基因;(2)行为习惯;(3)饮食及心理只有三者都长时寿命才能长但是,即使遗传禀赋很好,若没有良好的心理素质与科学的生活习惯和饮食,也难得长寿因此,可用一位长者的话告诫人们:/如果你活不到100岁,责任在你自己0谷玉兰摘自5警钟长鸣报6概率风险评价及其应用颜兆林周经伦龚时雨唐勇#29#