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1Task1TheDawnofTheAgeofArtificialIntelligenceReasonstocheertheriseofthemachinesErikBrynjolfsson&AndrewMcafee【1】Theadvanceswe’veseeninthepastfewyears–carsthatdrivethemselves,usefulhumanoidrobots,speechrecognitionandsynthesissystems,3Dprinters,Jeopardy!-championcomputers—arenotthecrowningachievementsofthecomputerera.They’rethewarm-upacts.Aswemovedeeperintothesecondmachineagewe’llseemoreandmoresuchwonders,andthey’llbecomemoreandmoreimpressive.【2】Howcanwebesosure?Becausetheexponential,digital,andrecombinantpowersofthesecondmachineagehavemadeitpossibleforhumanitytocreatetwoofUnitFour2themostimportantone-timeeventsinourhistory:theemergenceofreal,usefulartificialintelligence(AI)andtheconnectionofmostofthepeopleontheplanetviaacommondigitalnetwork.【3】Eitheroftheseadvancesalonewouldfundamentallychangeourgrowthprospects.Whencombined,they’remoreimportantthananythingsincetheIndustrialRevolution,whichforevertransformedhowphysicalworkwasdone.ThinkingMachines,Availablenow【4】Digitalmachineshaveescapedtheirnarrowconfinesandstartedtodemonstratebroadabilitiesinpatternrecognition,complexcommunication,andotherdomainsthatusedtobeexclusivelyhuman.We’verecentlyseengreatprogressinnaturallanguageprocessing,machinelearning(theabilityofacomputertoautomaticallyrefineitsmethodsandimproveitsresultsasitgetsmoredata),computervision,simultaneouslocalizationandmapping,andmanyotherareas.【5】We’regoingtoseeartificialintelligencedomoreandmore,andasthishappenscostswillgodown,outcomeswillimprove,andourliveswillgetbetter.SooncountlesspiecesofAIwillbeworkingonourbehalf,ofteninthebackground.They’llhelpusinareasrangingfromtrivialtosubstantivetolifechanging.TrivialusesofAIincluderecognizingourfriends’facesinphotosandrecommendingproducts.Moresubstantiveonesincludeautomaticallydrivingcarsontheroad,guidingrobotsinwarehouses,andbettermatchingjobsandjobseekers.Buttheseremarkableadvancespaleagainstthelife-changingpotentialofartificialintelligence.【6】Totakejustonerecentexample,innovatorsattheIsraelicompanyOrCamhavecombinedasmallbutpowerfulcomputer,digitalsensors,andexcellentalgorithmstogivekeyaspectsofsighttothevisuallyimpaired(apopulationnumberingmorethantwentymillionintheUnitedStatesalone).AuseroftheOrCamsystem,whichwasintroducedin2013,clipsontoherglassesacombinationofatinydigitalcameraandspeakerthatworksbyconductingsoundwavesthroughthebonesofthehead.Ifshepointsherfingeratasourceoftextsuchasabillboard,packageoffood,ornewspaperarticle,thecomputerimmediatelyanalyzestheimagesthecamerasendstoit,thenreadsthetexttoherviathespeaker.【7】Readingtext‘inthewild’–inavarietyoffonts,sizes,surfaces,andlightingconditions—hashistoricallybeenyetanotherareawherehumansoutpacedeventhemostadvancedhardwareandsoftware.OrCamandsimilarinnovationsshowthatthisisnolongerthecase,andthathereagaintechnologyisracingahead.Asitdoes,itwill3helpmillionsofpeopleleadfullerlives.TheOrCamcostsabout$2,500–thepriceofagoodhearingaid–andiscertaintobecomecheaperovertime.【8】Digitaltechnologiesarealsorestoringhearingtothedeafviacochlearimplantsandwillprobablybringsightbacktothefullyblind;theFDArecentlyapprovedafirst-generationretinalimplant.AI’sbenefitsextendeventoquadriplegics,sincewheelchairscannowbecontrolledbythoughts.Consideredobjectively,theseadvancesaresomethingclosetomiracles–andthey’restillintheirinfancy.BillionsofInnovators,ComingSoon【9】InadditiontopowerfulandusefulAI,theotherrecentdevelopmentthatpromisestofurtheracceleratethesecondmachineageisthedigitalinterconnectionoftheplanet’speople.Thereisnobetterresourceforimprovingtheworldandbetteringthestateofhumanitythantheworld’shumans–all7.1billionofus.Ourgoodideasandinnovationswilladdressthechallengesthatarise,improvethequalityofourlives,allowustolivemorelightlyontheplanet,andhelpustakebettercareofoneanother.Itisaremarkableandunmistakablefactthat,withtheexceptionofclimatechange,virtuallyallenvironmental,social,andindividualindicatorsofhealthhaveimprovedovertime,evenashumanpopulationhasincreased.【10】Thisimprovementisnotaluckycoincidence;itiscauseandeffect.Thingshavegottenbetterbecausetherearemorepeople,whointotalhavemoregoodideasthatimproveouroveralllot.TheeconomistJulianSimonwasoneofthefirsttomakethisoptimisticargument,andheadvanceditrepeatedlyandforcefullythroughouthiscareer.Hewrote,“Itisyourmindthatmatterseconomically,asmuchormorethanyourmouthorhands.Inthelongrun,themostimportanteconomiceffectofpopulationsizeandgrowthisthecontributionofadditionalpeopletoourstockofusefulknowledge.Andthiscontributionislargeenoughinthelongruntoovercomeallthecostsofpopulationgrowth.”【11】WedohaveonequibblewithSimon,however.Hewrotethat,“Themainfueltospeedtheworld’sprogressisourstockofknowledge,andthebrakeisourlackofimagination.”Weagreeaboutthefuelbutdisagreeaboutthebrake.Themainimpedimenttoprogresshasbeenthat,untilquiterecently,asizableportionoftheworld’speoplehadnoeffectivewaytoaccesstheworld’sstockofknowledgeortoaddtoit.【12】IntheindustrializedWestwehavelongbeenaccustomedtohavinglibraries,telephones,andcomputersatourdisposal,butthesehavebeenunimaginable4luxuriestothepeo