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2016年上海外国语大学专业学位英语口译/笔译初试英语翻译基础（100分）12月26日14:00—17:00I.Cloze.(共15个空，一空两分，共30分)卷子上的标题是Here’swhythe“Americancentury”willsurviveriseofChinaTheAmericancenturywillsurvivetheriseofChinaJosephNyeMarch25,2015EntropyisagreaterchallengethanChinesegrowth,writesJosephNyeIn1941TimeeditorHenryLuceproclaimed“theAmericancentury”.Somenowseethiscomingtoanendas1.aresultofthenation’seconomicandpoliticaldecline.ManypointtotheexampleofUSfailuretoconvinceitsalliestostayoutoftheAsianInfrastructureInvestmentBank,Beijing’srivaltotheWorldBank;butthiswas2.moreanexampleofafaultydecisionthanevidenceofdecline,whichraisesthequestionofwhatisthenaturallifecycleofanation.Acenturyisgenerallythelimitforahumanorganismbutcountriesaresocialconstructs.Romedidnotcollapseuntilmorethanthreecenturiesafteritreacheditsapogeeofpowerin117AD.AfterAmericanindependencein1776HoraceWalpole,theBritishpolitician,lamentedthathisnationhadbeenreducedtothelevelofSardinia,justasBritainwasabouttoentertheindustrialrevolutionthat3.powereditssecondcenturyasaglobalpower.AnyeffortatassessingAmericanpowerinthecomingdecadesshould4.takeintoaccounthowmanyearliereffortshavebeenwideofthemark.Itischasteningtorememberhowwildly5.exaggeratedUSestimatesofSovietpowerinthe1970sandofJapanesepowerinthe1980swere.TodaysomeseetheChineseas10fttallandproclaimthis“theChinesecentury”.China’ssizeandrelativelyrapideconomicgrowthwillbringitclosertotheUSintermsofitspowerresourcesinthenextfewdecades.ButthisdoesnotnecessarilymeanitwillsurpasstheUSinmilitary,economicandsoftpower.6.EvenifChinasuffersnobigdomesticpoliticalsetback,manyprojectionsaresimplelinearextrapolationsofgrowthratesthatarelikelytoslowinthefuture.7.Moreover,economicprojectionsareonedimensional.TheyignoreUSmilitaryandsoftpoweradvantages,suchasthedesireofstudentsaroundtheworldtoattendUSuniversities.TheyalsooverlookChina’sgeopolitical8.dis-advantagesintheAsianbalanceofpower,comparedwithAmerica’srelationswithEurope,JapanandIndia,whicharelikelytoremainmorefavourable.ItisnotimpossiblethatachallengersuchasChina,Europe,Russia,IndiaorBrazilwillsurpasstheUSinthefirsthalfofthiscenturybutitisbutnotlikely.Onthequestionofabsoluteratherthan9.relativeAmericandecline,theUSfacesseriousproblemsinareassuchasdebt,secondaryeducation,incomein?equalityandpoliticalgridlockbuttheseareonlypartofthepicture.Onthepositivesideoftheledgerarefavourabletrendsindemography,technologyandenergyaswellasabidingfactorssuchasgeographyandentrepreneurialculture.Thescenariosthatcould10.precipitatedeclineincludeonesinwhichtheUSoverreactstoterroristattacksbyturninginwardsandthuscutsitselfofffromthestrengthitobtainsfromopenness.Alternativelyitcouldreactbyovercommittingitself,andwastingbloodandtreasureasitdidinVietnamandIraq.Asanoverallassessment,describingthe21stcenturyasoneofAmericandeclineisinaccurateandmisleading.ThoughtheUShasproblemsitisnotinabsolutedecline,unlikeancientRome,anditislikelytoremainmorepowerfulthananysinglestateincomingdecades.TherealproblemisnotthatitwillbeovertakenbyChinaoranothercontenderbutratherthatitfacesariseinthepowerresourcesofmanyothers—bothstatesandnon-stateactorssuchastransnationalcorporations,terroristgroupsandcybercriminals.Anditwillfaceanincreasingnumberofglobalproblemsthatwill11.callonourabilitytoorganisealliancesandnetworks.12.ContrarytotheviewsofthosewhoproclaimthistheChinesecentury,wehavenotenteredapost-Americanworld.ButtheAmericancenturyofthefuturewillnotlookthesameasinpreviousdecades.TheUS13.shareoftheworldeconomywillbesmallerthanitwasinthemiddleofthepastcentury.Furthermore,thecomplexitycreatedbytheriseofothercountries,aswellastheincreasedroleofnon-stateactors,willmakeitharderforevenAmerica,thebiggestpower,to14.wieldinfluenceandorganiseaction.EntropyisagreaterchallengethanChina.Atthesametime,evenwhentheUShaditsgreatestpreponderanceofpowerresources,itoftenfailedtosecurewhatitwanted.Thosewhoarguethatthedisorderoftoday’sworldismuchworsethaninthepastshouldrememberayearsuchas1956,whentheUSwasunabletopreventSoviet15.repressionofarevoltinHungary;ortheSuezinvasionbyouralliesBritain,FranceandIsrael.Wemustnotviewthepastthroughrose-tintedglasses.Now,withslightlylesspreponderanceandamuchmorecomplexworld,theAmericancenturywillcontinueforatleastafewdecades,butitwilllookverydifferentfromwhenLucefirstarticulatedit.中国崛起能终结美国世纪吗？美国哈佛大学教授约瑟夫-奈为英国《金融时报》撰稿1941年，《时代》杂志(Time)主编亨利-卢斯(HenryLuce)宣称，“美国世纪”已经来临。现在有些人认为，随着美国在经济和政治上走向衰落，美国世纪正趋于结束。许多人援引美国未能阻止盟友加入亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB，简称：亚投行）作为一个例子——亚投行是中国政府提议创立、与世界银行(WorldBank)争风头的一个机构。但这只能表明一个错误的决定，而不能表明美国已经衰落。这引出一个问题：一个国家正常的生命周期有多长？一个世纪通常是人类机体生存的极限，但国家是社会结构。古罗马在公元117年达到实力的巅峰，但它随后又延续了300多年才解体。1776年美国独立后，英国政界人士霍勒斯-沃波尔(HoraceWalpole)哀叹道，他的国家已沦为撒丁岛（Sardinia，位于意大利半岛的西南方，是地中海的第二大岛——译者注）的水平，可随后英国开启工业革命，在接下来的一个世纪里仍然是全球强国。要评估美国在今后几十年的实力，就得考虑早先有多少评估不靠谱。别忘了，美国对上世纪70年代的苏联和上世纪80年代的日本都曾做出过离谱的高估，这足以令人引以为戒。如今，一些人认为中国人有10英尺高，并宣称现在是“中国世纪”。就实力资源而言，庞大的规模和相对快速的经济增长将让中国在今后几十年逼近美国。但这未必意味着中国将在军事、经济和软实力方面超越美国。即便中国国内没有发生重大的政治挫折，许多预测也只是对经济增长率作简单的线性外推，而未来经济增长是可能放缓的。此外，经济预测只是一个方面。他们忽视了美国在军事和软实力方面的优势，比如世界各地的学生都想到美国上大学。他们也忽视了，相对于美国与欧洲、日本和印度的关系（这些关系很可能保持在比