PPT精选案例模板-Gartner - Technology Trends 2004-2008

BobHaywardTechnologyTrends2004-2008ThesematerialscanbereproducedonlywithGartner’soffic[e-mail].©2003Gartner,Inc.and/oritsAffiliates.AllRightsReserved.TheLongView–Mid-LifePauseForBreathforIT-basedTransformationofBusiness1970198019902000201020202030SiliconAgeNano&QuantumAge?KnowledgeAgeMainframesPCsPhysicalConnectivityLogicalConnectivityEmbeddedConnectivityRelativeimportance©2003Gartner,Inc.and/oritsAffiliates.AllRightsReserved.2TechnologyLawsandInnovationContinue…Moore’sLaw–TheFifthParadigm10-610-410-21010+210+410+610+810+1019001910192019301940195019601970198019902000ExponentialScaleCalculationsPerSecondPer$1,000.ElectromechanicalRelayVacuumTubeTransistorIntegratedCircuit©2003Gartner,Inc.and/oritsAffiliates.AllRightsReserved.3TheHypeCycleTroughofDisillusionmentSlopeofEnlightenmentPlateauofProductivityMaturityTechnologyTriggerPeakofInflatedExpectationsPositiveHypeNegativeHypeDonotjoininjustbecauseitisinDonotmissoutjustbecauseitisout©2003Gartner,Inc.and/oritsAffiliates.AllRightsReserved.4TechnologyTriggerPeakofInflatedExpectationsTroughofDisillusionmentSlopeofEnlightenmentPlateauofProductivityMaturityVisibilityLessthantwoyearsTwotofiveyearsFiveto10yearsMorethan10yearsKey:TimetoPlateauAsofMay2003Instantmessaging,retailInstantmessaging,corporateMobileapplications,retailMobileapplications,corporateMobilepaymentsSpeechandvoicetechnologiesGridcomputingDataminingWebservicesArtificialintelligenceIntelligentagents/pushtechnologySalesplanningandpricingtoolsPartnerrelationshipmanagement(PRM)BiometricsChip-basedcards,corporateContactchipcards,EuropeContactchipcards,U.S.E-tagNetworkidentityservicesE-signaturesDocumentimagingDocumentmanagement/archiveBusinessrulesengineEmergingtechnologieshypecycle©2003Gartner,Inc.and/oritsAffiliates.AllRightsReserved.BenefitMaturityNewbusinessmodelsNewprocessesImprovedprocessesModerate:UsablewithmotivationLow:demonstrations,prototypesandpilotsBiometricsNaturalLanguageSearchWirelessLANs/802.11WAP/WirelessWebLocationSensingVoIPBluetoothP2PPersonalFuelCellsWebServicesNanocomputingGridComputingDigitalWalletsE-TagsText-to-SpeechSpeechRecognitionPKIPDAPhonesE-PaymentsVPNRadarScreen©2003Gartner,Inc.and/oritsAffiliates.AllRightsReserved.6TechnologiesatDifferentSpeedsLong-fusetechnologiesOnetotwodecadesfromtriggertoplateauScience-fiction-likefascinationInherentcomplexity,businessimplications.Relianceoncertaininfrastructure,skills“FastTrack”TechnologiesTwotofouryearsfromtriggertoplateauPerformancepeaksearlyUsescurrentinfrastructure/standardsEasytouseVendorsupportIM,SMS,USBFlashCards.SmartDustSpeechRecognitionHandwritingRecognitionMachineTranslationIntelligentClothes“IntelligentAgents”HolographicStorageE-mailInternetDesktopVideoconferencingBiometricsTele-ImmersionFiberopticsNano-ComputingDNA-Computing“AutonomicComputing”Quantum-Decryption©2003Gartner,Inc.and/oritsAffiliates.AllRightsReserved.GartnerPredicts:TenHotTechnologies2004TheTopTenTechnologiesInstantMessagingRealTimeDataWarehouseWiFiSecurityInternalWebServicesPolicybasedmanagementIPTelephonyUtilityComputingGridComputingNetworkSecurityTechnologiesRFIDTagsMaturingin18-36monthsWiderApplicabilityLoweredRiskIssuesResolved©2003Gartner,Inc.and/oritsAffiliates.AllRightsReserved.8InstantMessagingintheEnterpriseValues:PresenceServiceReal-timeNorewindLowoverheadOtherIssues:LackofaudittrailQoSlimitationsPoorintegrationcapabilityLostrecordofdecisionsTextfocused,limitedmediaSecurityconcerns:DataprotectionPrivacyTamperresistance©2003Gartner,Inc.and/oritsAffiliates.AllRightsReserved.9“CreativeScheduling”DWETLETLETLETLETLETLSourceSourceSourceSourceReplicationSourceSourceSourceSourceReplicateReplicateReplicateReplicateDWDataWarehouseAsAnApplicationDWIntegrationBrokerSourceSourceSourceSourceTargetApps.AvoidTheIssue—NoDataWarehouse!SourceSourceSourceSourceBIToolsandApplicationsDWETLOptionsfordevelopinga‘Real-Time’DataWarehouse©2003Gartner,Inc.and/oritsAffiliates.AllRightsReserved.10OntheCuspoftheMostFundamentalChangetoBusinessSinceTheInternetITArchitecture,conceptsandbusinessphilosophyhavereachedacriticaltippingpoint:–ServiceOrientedArchitectures(SOA),EventDrivenArchitectures(EDA),ServiceOrientedBusinessApplications(SOBA),ServiceOrientedDevelopmentofApplications(SODA),WebServices,RealTimeEnterprise(RTE),BusinessProcessManagement(BPM)andModelingandBusinessProcessFusiongainingmajortractionandmovetowardscriticalmassandmainstreamadoptionMaturityintheseareaswilldrivedramaticchangesinthewaywedobusiness,toadegreenotseensincetheadventoftheInternet©2003Gartner,Inc.and/oritsAffiliates.AllRightsReserved.11IntegrationofITandBusinessProcessesHighLowCustomerBusinessProcessITCustomerBusinessProcessITCustomerBusinessProcessITNoBusinessIsanIsland:TheIncreasedDependenceonITforBusinessProcesses©2003Gartner,Inc.and/oritsAffiliates.AllRightsReserved.12SoftwareAsProduct–Licensemodel–Customizationrequired–Postimplementationhosting–ExpensiveSoftwareAsService–Speedtosolution–Rentalmodel–Remotedelivery–Vertic