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2016年3月ACCAP3考试模拟题2016年ACCA将推出四个考季，为了方便大家更好地复习2016年3月ACCAP3考试，小编在百度文库定期传一些考试资料，如有其他需要可以访问财萃网。WorldEngines(WE)isoneofthelargestproducersofaircraftandshipenginesintheworld.Ithasassetsinexcessof$600bn.Itiscurrentlyconsideringimprovementstoitsmarineengineproductionfacilities.Theseimprovementsincludetheintroductionofspecialisthardwareandsoftwareenginetestingtechnology.Twocompanieshavebeenshortlistedforsupplyingthistechnology.Amethystisawell-establishedcompanywhoseproductprovidessophisticatedtestingfacilitiesandcosts$7m.Thesoftwarethatsupportstheproductiswritteninaconventionalprogramminglanguage.Thesolutioniswidelyused,butitisrelativelyinflexibleandithasanout-of-dateuserinterface.Amethysthasbeentradingprofitablyfor20yearsandcurrentlyhasanannualturnoverof$960m.Topazisarelativelynewcompany(formedthreeyearsago)whoseproductismoreexpensive($8m)butitofferssignificantadvantagesinhighvolumeperformanceandstresstesting.Ithasamodularsoftwaredesignthatallowsittobeeasilymaintainedandupgraded.Itiswritteninarelativelynewpowerfulprogramminglanguageanditalsohasanattractiveandcontemporaryuserinterface.Topazcurrentlyhasaturnoverof$24mperyear.SomeWEexecutivesareconcernedaboutpurchasingfromsuchayoung,relativelysmallcompany,althoughexternallycommissionedcreditreportsshowthatTopazisaprofitable,liquidandlightlygearedcompany.OnarecentevaluationvisittoAmethyst,WE’scompleteevaluationteamoffivepeople,includingthefinancialspecialist,werekilledwhentheiraircraftcrashedonitsapproachtolanding.Itwasasmall,12seatcommuteraircraftthatwasflyingtheWEteamonashort100kmflightfromtheinternationalairporttoasmallruralairportclosetoAmethyst’sbase.Itlateremergedthatsmallcommuterairlinesandaircraftweresubjecttolessstringentsafetyproceduresthanlargeraircraftusedbyestablishedairlines.Laterthatyear,oneofthedivisionaldirectorsofWEwasgivenresponsibilityforpickingupandrunningthetestingtechnologyevaluationproject.Hehasfoundthefollowingtable(Figure1)producedbythefinancialspecialistintheevaluationteamwhowaskilledintheaircrash.Thedivisionaldirectorrecallsthatthesereturnswerebasedon‘tangiblebenefitsresultingfromthetwooptions.Thereturnsreflectthecharacteristicsofthetwoproducts.Topazproducesbetterreturnsifdemandfortestingishigh,butislesseffectiveinlowdemandcircumstances.Thisisareflectionofthefactthatthetwosolutionsdifferslightlyintermsoftheirfunctionalscopeandpower’.Figure1:expectedreturnsforthreedemandandsuppliercombinations.OptionSupplierIFHighdemandIFLowdemandAAmethyst$3mperannum$0·5mperannumBTopaz$4mperannum$0·1mperannumThedivisionaldirectoralsorecallsaworkshopconvenedtoconsiderfuturemarketdemand.‘Demandinthemarineindustryiscurrentlyaffectedbyglobaleconomicuncertaintyanditisincreasinglydifficulttopredictdemand.Irememberthatwewerealsoaskedtoestimatedemandforourmarineproductsforthenextsixyears.Weeventuallycameupwiththefollowingfigures,althoughitwasrelativelyhardtogeteveryonetoagreeanddebateattheworkshopbecamealittleheated’.–Highdemandforsixyears:probabilityp=0·4–Lowdemandforsixyears:probabilityp=0·4–Highdemandforthreeyears,followedbylowdemandforthreeyears:probabilityp=0·2Thesefiguresareconfirmedbyadocumentalsorecoveredfromtheaircrashsite.‘AsIrecall’,saidthedivisionaldirector,‘thefinancialspecialistintendedtodevelopadecisiontreetohelpusevaluatetheAmethystandTopazalternatives.However,thereisnoevidencethatheeverconstructedit,whichisapitybecausewecouldhavetakentheprocurementdecisiononthebasisofthatdecisiontree’.Required:(a)Developadecisiontreefromtheinformationgiveninthescenarioanddiscussitsimplicationsandshortcomings.Ignorethetimevalueofmoneyinyouranalysis.(9marks)(b)Thedivisionaldirectorsuggeststhattheprocurementdecisioncouldhavebeentakenontheevidenceofthedecisiontree.Discusswhatotherfactors(notconsideredbythedecisiontreeanalysis)shouldalsobetakenintoconsiderationwhendecidingwhichoptiontoselect.(6marks)(c)WEexecutivesareconcernedabouttheriskofTopaz,asarelativelynewcompany,goingoutofbusiness.Theyhavealsoexpressedconcernaboutthelossoftheevaluationteaminafatalaccidentandtheybelievethatthisshouldleadtoareviewoftherisksassociatedwithemployeetravel.DiscusshowEACHoftheaboverisks(supplierbusinessfailureandemployeetravel)mightbeavoidedormitigated.(10marks)(25marks)Answer:(a)Adecisiontreefortheinformationinthescenarioisgivenbelow.TheexpectedvalueofAmethystis:($18mx0·4)+($3mx0·4)+($10·5mx0·2)=$10·5mMINUScostof$7m=$3·5mTheexpectedvalueofTopazis:($24mx0·4)+($0·6mx0·4)+($12·3mx0·2)=$12·3MINUScostof$8m=$4·3mTheanalysissuggeststhattheTopazoptionshouldbechosen.Thisdecisiontreeisbasedontheinformationavailableatthispointintime.Theprobabilitiessetintheworkshoparesubjectiveandarenotbasedonananalysisofpaststatisticaldata.Asthedivisionaldirectorrecallsinthescenario,‘itwasrelativelyhardtogeteveryonetoagreeanddebateattheworkshopbecamealittleheated.’Thesensitivityoftheoutcometoslightalterationsinprobabilityassessmentsshouldbeundertaken.Itisalsounlikelythatthepredictedreturnswillbecompletelyaccurate.Thebasisoftheseestimatesisnotgiven,butafurthersensitivityanalysis,thistimefocusingonreturns,wouldbeva