影子银行体系对房地产价格的作用机理探究

、《》“”。。。“”。《》、、、。、。。、、、、2010-2014VAR、Granger、。ResearchonInfluencingMechanismoftheShadowBankingSystemonHousingPriceSHANChangHANFu-lingLIHao-ranSchoolofFinanceCentralUniversityofFinanceandEconomicsBeijing100081ChinaAbstract：Throughthecreationofcreditenhancementeffectrisktakingenhancementeffectandassetsubstitutionenhancementeffecttheshadowbankingsystemhasaspecialinfluencingmechanismonhousingpricecomparedwiththetraditionalbankcredit.Weuseshadowbankingcreditscaletraditionalbankcreditscaletheinterestratesofshadowbankingloanshousingpricesindexandthemonthlydataof2010-2014inChinatesttheshort-terminteractionrelationsandlong-termdynamicequilibriumrelationshipbetweenshadowbankingsystemandthehousingpriceinChinawiththeVARmodelGraingercausalitytestImpulseresponseanalysisandvariancedecompositionanalysisandbasedontheconclusionthispaperputsforwardpolicyrecommendationsforsupervisiondepartments.Keywords：Shadowbank；Housingprice；Creditmarket；Creditcrunch。··。、。、。、、、、。、、。。。。。。“”。“”、。1.、、、、、。。。。。、。。。。。。。、、。～。··HoPHoPR*R*R芨R芨R芨R芨R芨R芨ctkctkkSIC｜*%。ctkLSLcLSL*cLYLctLYL*ctLHPctLHP*ctSIctSI*ct｜｜｜｜。。2.“”。。。。、1.、、。。“”。SL。YLHPSI。SL、HP、YLLSL、LHP、LYL。。2.Johansen“”。LSL、LYL、LHP、SII。LSL、LYL、LHP、SI——襛··LHPLSL、LYL。。3.、、。。、。、。4.。、、。。LSLLHP。LYLLHP。LYLLSLLHP。。。SILHP。。5.、、。。。。、FPFPLSLLHPGrangerELHPLSLGrangerLYLLHPGrangerELHPLYLGrangerSILHPGrangerLHPSIGrangerLYLLSLGrangerLSLLYLGrangerSILSLGrangerLSLSIGrangerSILYLGrangerLYLSIGrangerLR、FPE、AIC、SC、HQVAR。LHPSI··。。。。“——”、、。。。。、。、。、。、、、、、、。、。、、、。【】LT··