外资在中国电力市场投资价值研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文外资在中国电力市场投资价值研究姓名：邹新国申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：彭娟20050610RESEARCHOFFOREIGNCAPITALVALUEANALYSISINCHINAELECTRICPOWERMARKETABSTRACTFollowingthestructuralreformsprocessofChinaelectricpowerindustry,andimprovinganopen-doorpolicyofmarketeconomy,theforeigncapitalpopularlyinvestintochina.Weneedamarketswaytoanalyzeefficiencyofcapitalsoperatingvaluetodisplaycorporatebusinessachievement.Itisagoingalongtrend.Atfirst,welookbackforeigncapitalhistoryinChina,andexplainthecauseofthelossofinvestreturn.FormcomparisonofEVAandordinaryachievementindex,weshouldquotethetheoryofEVA(EconomicValueAdded),sothatdisplaycorporatebusinessachievementandimproveefficiencyofcapitalsoperating.Atbaseoftheory,weintroducethehistoryofChinaelectricpowerdevelopment,analyzeafuturedemandofchinaelectricpower,andfindanopportunityofenterthemarkcompany.ForexplainingparticularityusingEVAeffectincapitalsoperating,wegivearesearchreportofthecaseaboutHUNENG,HUADIAN,DATAN.Weanalyzeafinancialstatementandcaseflowfirstly,nextanalyzethevalueofEVA,andRMA(Resourcemarginanalyze).Soverifyeffectresultofguidingforeigncapitalandmakingaexpectreturnprofit,WefindEVAandRMAcandistinguishthecorebusinessarea,distributereasonablecapitalresource,improvetheefficiencyofcapitalsoperation.ThepaperexplainthefuturetendencyofChinaelectricpowerentermarketcompany,showinvestedopportunity.Theforeigncapitalmaybeadjustinvestedmethod,andestablishinvestedstrategyintellectually,abandonimpossiblereturnprofit.atendofthispaperwediscussdefectofusingEVAtheory.KEYWORDS:Chinaelectricpower,efficiencyofcapitalsoperation,EVAandRMA1.2..3456.7.8.91011122-1R&D13.14∑∞=+1)1(tttWACCFCFF∑∞=+1)1(tttWACCEVA∑∞=-+×-11)1(ttttWACCWACCINOPLAT∑∞=+1)1(tttWACCNOPLAT∑∞=-+×11)1(tttWACCWACCI∑∞=+1)1(tttWACCNOPLAT∑∞=--+-+×111)1()1(ttttWACCIWACCI∑∞=+1)1(tttWACCNOPLAT∑∞=--+111)1(tttWACCI∑∞=-+11)1(tttWACCI∑∞=+1)1(tttWACCNOPLAT∑∞=+1)1(tttWACCI∑∞=-+11)1(tttWACCI∑∞=-+--11)1()(tttttWACCIINOPLAT∑∞=+1)1(tttWACCFCFF1516171819203-1213-2203-320222324252627283-4:()()36271938(56%)(600011)30432035(34.2%)(600795)(90%)(000966)32252035(65%)(H0991)600236)(600644)31092092(51%)(H1071)600292)28892196(87.1%)(000767)(56.25%)(600292)920(11.7%)(600578)(20%)(000720)(000543)(000899)(001896)(600642)29303132333435363770.190.324.1525.34AH4-1FIGURE4-1HUANENGNationalcapitalstockstructure3850.0115.346.164.7323.77AH4-2FIGURE4-2HUADIANNationalcapitalstockstructureADRs35.43%27.71%13.01%13.01%10.84%H4-3FIGURE4-3DATANPOWERcapitalstockstructure3968.480.946.367139.823.314.32523.932.340.233.932.475149.4020406080100120140160200020012002200320044-4FIGURE4-4capitalinvestmentchang32134131737740942656367087087010811359149319850500100015002000250019981999200020012002200320044-5FIGURE4-5HUANENGfixedcapitaltransformproductivecapacity40110105.1124.8144164.9177.9236.14804935055205656397420100200300400500600700800199819992000200120022003220044-6FIGURE4-6HUADIANfixedcapitaltransformproductivecapacity110105.1124.8144164.9177.9236.14804935055205656397420100200300400500600700800199819992000200120022003220044-7FIGURE4-7DATANfixedcapitaltransformproductivecapacity4101002003004005006004-8FIGURE4-8HUANENGareaproductivecapacity,4-9FIGURE4-9HUANENGservicearea424-10FIGURE4-10HUADIANservicearea4-11FIGURE4-11DATANservicearea4380.9104.9125.6158.2187.3234.8302.963.380.881.5103.6125.7157.4225.818.820.126.436.440.854.653.905010015020025030035019981999200020012002200320044-12FIGURE4-12HUANENGprofit52.357.668.671.478.180.7101.834.231.142.145.857.260.175.411.59.213.413.911.910.210.402040608010012019981999200020012002200320044-13FIGURE4-13HUADIANprofit4450.752.256.965.580.299.5135.83333.936.544.555.867.994.812.212.513.814.31418.122.902040608010012014016034-14FIGURE4-14DATANprofit4514.49%8.65%X1/(1-0.44)=/=1/1-=1/1-/x10017.79%X0.4862%5,389,057,047/30,292,698,69630,292,698,696/71,324,978,07830,292,698,696-23,923,562,328+16,378,141-996,457,4629,653,654,524+61,671,323,55422,581,294,4150543,097,354799,170,5592,510,859,39013,2003,730,431,1561,431,403,6051,980,947,1735,886,292,21856,323,463,517-551,009,87712,577,696464720042003200290716010156977048601360376-520575109888269431-382580807428-183312112605829472004200320023525606272775221653353770514946457287015161502212861733820042003200226184511712055138489913980816700384629821246719603866824766482001200420022003200470.4101.690.710.550.600.3420.370.430.3030.580.540.6040.150.190.13÷÷÷492002220320040.150.190.130.370.430.30.390.460.481.611.491.78199619971998199920002001200220032004657680.9104.9125.6158.2187.3234.8302.913.316.618.820.126.436.440.854.653.94-15FIGURE4-15HUANENGCFofshare504-16FIGURE4-16HUANENGrateofCFtonetporfit4-17FIGURE4-17HUANENGrateofCFtodebt514-18FIGURE4-18HUANENGrateofCFtosalesincome4-19FIGURE4-19HUANENGprofitpershare52[]rrrrfmf=+-bb53b[]rrrrfmf=+-b5494-9798-20012002ROIC12%10%12%b80%50%80%g12%10%12%WACC7%7%7%t94959697989920002001200220032004*It-15050107.8201.5305.4381.7406.1424.1472.3481532.8NOPLAT8.31213.316.618.820.126.436.440.854.653.9057.893.7103.931.724.41848.240.851.8180.4It50107.8201.5305.4381.7406.1424.1472.3481532.8713.23.57.514.