宏观经济学chap06-unemployment

slide0CHAPTER6UnemploymentInthischapter,youwilllearn……aboutthenaturalrateofunemployment:whatitmeanswhatcausesitunderstandingitsbehaviorintherealworldslide1CHAPTER6UnemploymentNaturalrateofunemploymentNaturalrateofunemployment:Theaveragerateofunemploymentaroundwhichtheeconomyfluctuates.Inarecession,theactualunemploymentraterisesabovethenaturalrate.Inaboom,theactualunemploymentratefallsbelowthenaturalrate.slide2CHAPTER6UnemploymentActualandnaturalratesofunemploymentintheU.S.,1960-2007PercentoflaborforceUnemploymentrateNaturalrateofunemployment0246810121960196519701975198019851990199520002005slide3CHAPTER6UnemploymentAfirstmodelofthenaturalrateNotation:L=#ofworkersinlaborforceE=#ofemployedworkersU=#ofunemployedU/L=unemploymentrateslide4CHAPTER6UnemploymentAssumptions:1.Lisexogenouslyfixed.2.Duringanygivenmonth,s=fractionofemployedworkersthatbecomeseparatedfromtheirjobssiscalledtherateofjobseparationsf=fractionofunemployedworkersthatfindjobsfiscalledtherateofjobfindingsandfareexogenousslide5CHAPTER6UnemploymentThetransitionsbetweenemploymentandunemploymentEmployedUnemployedsEfUslide6CHAPTER6UnemploymentThesteadystateconditionDefinition:thelabormarketisinsteadystate,orlong-runequilibrium,iftheunemploymentrateisconstant.Thesteady-stateconditionis:sE=fU#ofemployedpeoplewholoseorleavetheirjobs#ofunemployedpeoplewhofindjobsslide7CHAPTER6UnemploymentFindingthe“equilibrium”UratefU=sE=s(L–U)=sL–sUSolveforU/L:(f+s)U=sLso,UsLsfslide8CHAPTER6UnemploymentExample:Eachmonth,1%ofemployedworkerslosetheirjobs(s=0.01)19%ofunemployedworkersfindjobs(f=0.19)Findthenaturalrateofunemployment:001005,or5%001019UsLsf....slide9CHAPTER6UnemploymentPolicyimplicationApolicywillreducethenaturalrateofunemploymentonlyifitlowerssorincreasesf.slide10CHAPTER6UnemploymentWhyisthereunemployment?Ifjobfindingwereinstantaneous(f=1),thenallspellsofunemploymentwouldbebrief,andthenaturalratewouldbenearzero.Therearetworeasonswhyf1:1.jobsearch2.wagerigidityslide11CHAPTER6UnemploymentJobsearch&frictionalunemploymentfrictionalunemployment:causedbythetimeittakesworkerstosearchforajoboccursevenwhenwagesareflexibleandthereareenoughjobstogoaroundoccursbecauseworkershavedifferentabilities,preferencesjobshavedifferentskillrequirementsgeographicmobilityofworkersnotinstantaneousflowofinformationaboutvacanciesandjobcandidatesisimperfectslide12CHAPTER6UnemploymentSectoralshiftsdef:Changesinthecompositionofdemandamongindustriesorregions.example:Technologicalchangemorejobsrepairingcomputers,fewerjobsrepairingtypewritersexample:Anewinternationaltradeagreementlabordemandincreasesinexportsectors,decreasesinimport-competingsectorsResult:frictionalunemploymentslide13CHAPTER6UnemploymentCASESTUDY:Structuralchangeoverthelongrun4.2%28.0%9.9%57.9%AgricultureManufacturingOtherindustryServices19601.6%17.2%7.7%73.5%2000slide14CHAPTER6UnemploymentMoreexamplesofsectoralshiftsLate1800s:declineofagriculture,increaseinmanufacturingLate1900s:relativedeclineofmanufacturing,increaseinservicesector1970s:energycrisiscausedashiftindemandawayfromgasguzzlerstowardsmallercars.Inourdynamiceconomy,smallersectoralshiftsoccurfrequently,contributingtofrictionalunemployment.slide15CHAPTER6UnemploymentPublicpolicyandjobsearchGovtprogramsaffectingunemploymentGovtemploymentagencies:disseminateinfoaboutjobopeningstobettermatchworkers&jobs.Publicjobtrainingprograms:helpworkersdisplacedfromdecliningindustriesgetskillsneededforjobsingrowingindustries.slide16CHAPTER6UnemploymentUnemploymentinsurance(UI)UIpayspartofaworker’sformerwagesforalimitedtimeafterlosinghis/herjob.UIincreasessearchunemployment,becauseitreducestheopportunitycostofbeingunemployedtheurgencyoffindingworkfStudies:ThelongeraworkeriseligibleforUI,thelongerthedurationoftheaveragespellofunemployment.slide17CHAPTER6UnemploymentByallowingworkersmoretimetosearch,UImayleadtobettermatchesbetweenjobsandworkers,whichwouldleadtogreaterproductivityandhigherincomes.BenefitsofUIslide18CHAPTER6UnemploymentWhyisthereunemployment?Tworeasonswhyf1:1.jobsearch2.wagerigidityUsLsfDONENextThenaturalrateofunemployment:slide19CHAPTER6UnemploymentUnemploymentfromrealwagerigidityLaborRealwageSupplyDemandUnemploymentRigidrealwageAmountoflaborwillingtoworkAmountoflaborhiredIfrealwageisstuckaboveitseq’mlevel,thentherearen’tenoughjobstogoaround.slide20CHAPTER6UnemploymentUnemploymentfromrealwagerigidityThen,firmsmustrationthescarcejobsamongworkers.Structuralunemployment:Theunemploymentresultingfromrealwagerigidityandjobrationing.Ifrealwageisstuckaboveitseq’mlevel,thentherearen’tenoughjobstogoaround.slide21CHAPTER6UnemploymentReasonsforwagerigidity1.Minimumwagelaws2.Laborunions3.Efficiencywagesslide22CHAPTER6Unemployment1.TheminimumwageThemin.wagemayexceedtheeq’mwageofunskilledworkers,especiallyteenagers.Studies:a10%increaseinmin.wagereducesteenunemploymentby1-3%But,themin.wagecannotexplainthemajorityofthenaturalrateofunemployment,asmostworkers’wagesarewellabovethemin.wage.slide23CHAPTER6Unemployment2.Laborun