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MoreVoicesNeededinClimateDebate1AftertwoweeksofclimatenegotiationsinDoha,bleary-eyedministers,negotiators,andadvocatesareheadedbackhometothevariousregionsaroundtheworld.Few,ifany,areleavingentirelysatisfied.2Thepaceofprogressonclimatechangeisstilltooslowandthepoliticalwillforgreaterambitionremainselusive.YetthesetalksdidachievethebasicgoalofextendingtheKyotoProtocolandmovingcountriesontoasinglenegotiatingtracktowardanewclimateagreement.Thisleavesthedoorformoreprogressahead.3Thisyear'stalkstookplaceagainstthebackdropoftwodisturbingtrends.Ontheonehand,therearemultiplesignsthatclimatechangeishereanditsimpactsarealreadybeingfeltaroundtheworld.Ontheotherhand,theworldremainstiedtotheconsumptionoffossilfuelsthatdrivemoreandmoregreenhousegasemissionsintotheatmosphere.Witheachpassingdaythatwedon'tshiftdirections,weareincreasinglylockingourselvesintomoreunstableclimatefuture.4Therealquestionis:Cantheinternationaltalkshavearealimpactonclimatechange?5Butbeforewegettothatquestion,let'slookmorecloselyatthetwotrends:6First,inrecentyears,we'veseenasurgeinclimateandextremeweatherevents,alongwithanalysisandotherevidencethattheworldisonanunsustainablecourse.ThemostrecentandtragicexamplewasSuperTyphoonBophathatsweptacrossthePhilippinesthisweek,killingatleast500peopleandleavingtensofthousandsdisplaced.Typhoonsaren'tunusualinthePhilippines,butthisoneisthemostsouthernonrecordanditarrivedparticularlylateintheyear.Thestorm,ofcourse,comesontheheelsofHurricaneSandy,whichsweptthroughtheCaribbeananduptheEastCoastoftheUnitedStates,leavinghundredsdead,andthousandswithoutpowerorproperty.Thesearethekindofextremeweathereventsthatarebecomingmorecommoninawarmingworld.Lastmonth,theUSgovernmenthasjustreported,wasthe332ndinsuccessioninwhichtheglobaltemperaturewasabovetheaverageforthe20thcentury:thoughindividualareashavesometimessufferedcoldspells,thelastbelow-averagemonthworldwidewasFebruary1985.Andtheeffectsareincreasinglyshowing.Alreadyweareseeingthatpolariceismeltingfasterthanexpectedandsealevelsarerisingbeyondmanyprojections.Forinstance,NOAA(USNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration)justreleasedastudyshowingthatsealevelscouldriseasmuchas6.6feetbytheendofthecentury.7TheWorldBank'sreport,TurningDowntheHeat,exploresaworldwithfourdegreesCelsiusofglobaltemperaturegrowth.Thepictureisnotpretty.Fourdegreeswouldbringmoreintensewildfires,heatwaves,andwitheringdroughts.Oceanlifewoulddieoff,whilepestsanddiseasewouldincrease,thereportsays.TheEuropeanEnvironmentAgencythisweekpublisheda300-pagereportdetailingtheimpactofglobalwarmingonthecontinent,fromcropstocoasts,floodstoforests—andearlierthisyearthegiantClimateVulnerabilityMonitorreportconcludedthatitwasalreadycostingabout1percentofglobalGDPand,togetherwiththecarbon-basedeconomy,causingfivemilliondeathsayear,mainlyinpoorcountries.8Thatbringsustothesecondmajortrend,whichistheworld'songoingdependenceonfossilfuels.WRI(WorldResourcesInstitute)recentlyreleasedananalysisshowingthattherearenearly1,200newproposedcoalplantsworldwide.Whilenotallofthesewillbedeveloped,evenafractionofthemwoulddriveupglobalemissions.Oil,likewise,remainsadominantfuelsource.And,despitetheenormousprofits,theInternationalEnergyAgencyhasreportedthatgovernmentsubsidiesforfossilfuelsweresixtimesthoseforrenewableenergyin2011.Thisdependenceonfossilfuelskeepspushinguptheglobalemissions.Totalannualgreenhousegasemissionshaveincreasedbyaboutathirdoverthepastdecade,andcarbondioxideconcentrationsintheatmospherearenowhigherthanatanytimeinthepast15millionyears.9That'swhywhathappensintheglobalclimateagreementsissocrucial.TheUNistheonlyvenuethatbringsallcountriestogetherandgiveseachachancetohaveavoice.Itprovidesacommonarenathatenhancestransparencyandaccountabilityamongcountries.Ofcourse,theinternationalsystemcannotsolvetheproblemonitsown.Weneedbusinessleaders,governmentofficials,andthepublictostepupaswell.Weneedmoreoftheirvoicesinthedebate.Fortunately,publicunderstandingofclimatechangeisontherise,asissupportforaction.Greaterdomesticactioncaninstillconfidenceandhelpbuildmomentum.Withmorenationalleadership,theUNcanmovefasterandtakeabiggerbiteoutofglobalemissions.10TurningagaintotheDohameeting,it'scertainlyclearthatthemeetingalonewon'tdoenoughtoaddressthisissue.Butitdoesputcountriesonatrackandprovidesthemwiththeopportunitytoraisetheirambition.11Thebigtask,therefore,istomakeprogressonacommitmentmadeatthelastclimatesummit,inDurbanin2011,toreachanewagreementwithlegalforceby2015,bindingallcountriestocontrolemissions.This,initself,wasabreakthrough,andtherearesomereasonsforcautiousoptimismthatprogresswillcontinue.12Manyoftheobstaclestoprogressinthepastarediminishing.TheUnitedStates—throughregulationandusingshalegas—islikelytohititstargetforreducingemissionsby17percentby2020,andPresidentObamahasstartedtotalkaboutactingonclimatechange,forthefirsttimeinyears,afterhiselectionandSuper-stormSandy.SaudiArabia,longthestrongestopponentofchange,isnowinvestingheavilyinsolarpower.Chinaisstartingitsownemissionstradingschemetocontrolcarbonreleases,anditsnewleadershipisex