搜索
GeorgeKennanMoscow22February1946AnswertoDept’s284,Feb.3,11involvesquestionssointricate,sodelicate,sostrangetoourformofthought,andsoimportanttoanalysisofourinternationalenvironmentthatIcannotcompressanswersintosinglebriefmessagewithoutyieldingtowhatIfeelwouldbedangerousdegreeofoversimplification.Ihope,therefore,DeptwillbearwithmeifIsubmitinanswertothisquestionfiveparts,subjectsofwhichwillberoughlyasfollows:(1)BasicfeaturesofpostwarSovietoutlook.(2)Backgroundofthisoutlook.(3)Itsprojectioninpracticalpolicyonofficiallevel.(4)Itsprojectiononunofficiallevel.(5)PracticaldeductionsfromstandpointofUSpolicy.Iapologizeinadvanceforthisburdeningoftelegraphicchannel;butquestionsinvolvedareofsuchurgentimportance,particularlyinviewofrecentevents,thatouranswerstothem,iftheydeserveattentionatall,seemtometodeserveitatonce.Therefollows:Part1:BasicFeaturesofPostwarSovietOutlookasPutForwardbyOfficialPropagandaMachine,AreasFollows(a)USSRstilllivesinantagonisticcapitalistencirclementwithwhichinthelongruntherecanbenopermanentpeacefulcoexistence.AsstatedbyStalinin1927toadelegationofAmericanworkers:Incourseoffurtherdevelopmentofinternationalrevolutiontherewillemergetwocentersofworldsignificance:asocialistcenter,drawingtoitselfthecountrieswhichtendtowardsocialism,andacapitalistcenter,drawingtoitselfthecountriesthatinclinetowardcapitalism.Battlebetweenthesetwocentersforcommandofworldeconomywilldecidefateofcapitalismandofcommunisminentireworld.(b)Capitalistworldisbesetwithinternalconflicts,inherentinnatureofcapitalistsociety.Theseconflictsareinsolublebymeansofpeacefulcompromise.GreatestofthemisthatbetweenEnglandandUS.(c)Internalconflictsofcapitalisminevitablygeneratewars.Warsthusgeneratedmaybeoftwokinds:intra-capitalistwarsbetweentwocapitaliststatesandwarsofinterventionagainstsocialistworld.Smartcapitalists,vainlyseekingescapefrominnerconflictsofcapitalism,inclinetowardlatter.(d)InterventionagainstUSSR,whileitwouldbedisastroustothosewhoundertookit,wouldcausereneweddelayinprogressofSovietsocialismandmustthereforebeforestalledatallcosts.(e)Conflictsbetweencapitaliststates,thoughlikewisefraughtwithdangerforUSSR,neverthelessholdoutgreatpossibilitiesforadvancementofsocialistcause,particularlyifUSSRremainsmilitarilypowerful,ideologicallymonolithicandfaithfultoitspresentbrilliantleadership.(f)Itmustbeborneinmindthatcapitalistworldisnotallbad.Inadditiontohopelesslyreactionaryandbourgeoiselements,itincludes(1)certainwhollyenlightenedandpositiveelementsunitedinacceptablecommunisticpartiesand(2)certainotherelements(nowdescribedfortacticalreasonsasprogressiveordemocratic)whosereactions,aspirationsandactivitieshappentobeobjectivelyfavorabletointerestsofUSSR.TheselastmustbeencouragedandutilizedforSovietpurposes.(g)Amongnegativeelementsofbourgeois-capitalistsociety,mostdangerousofallarethosewhomLenincalledfalsefriendsofthepeople,namelymoderate-socialistorsocial-democraticleaders(inotherwords,non-Communistleft-wing).Thesearemoredangerousthanout-and-outreactionaries,forlatteratleastmarchundertheirtruecolors,whereasmoderateleft-wingleadersconfusepeoplebyemployingdevicesofsocialismtoserveinterestsofreactionarycapital.Somuchforpremises.TowhatdeductionsdotheyleadfromstandpointofSovietpolicy?Tofollowing:(a)EverythingmustbedonetoadvancerelativestrengthofUSSRasfactorininternationalsociety.Conversely,noopportunitymustbemissedtoreducestrengthandinfluence,collectivelyaswellasindividually,ofcapitalistpowers.(b)Sovietefforts,andthoseofRussia’sfriendsabroad,mustbedirectedtowarddeepeningandexploitingofdifferencesandconflictsbetweencapitalistpowers.Iftheseeventuallydeepenintoanimperialistwar,thiswarmustbeturnedintorevolutionaryupheavalswithinthevariouscapitalistcountries.(c)Democratic-progressiveelementsabroadaretobeutilizedtomaximumtobringpressuretobearoncapitalistgovernmentsalonglinesagreeabletoSovietinterests.(d)Relentlessbattlemustbewagedagainstsocialistandsoial-democraticleadersabroad.Part2:BackgroundofOutlookBeforeexaminingramificationsofthispartylineinpracticetherearecertainaspectsofittowhichIwishtodrawattention.First,itdoesnotrepresentnaturaloutlookofRussianpeople.Latterare,byandlarge,friendlytooutsideworld,eagerforexperienceofit,eagertomeasureagainstittalentstheyareconsciousofpossessing,eagerabovealltoliveinpeaceandenjoyfruitsoftheirownlabor.Partylineonlyrepresentsthesiswhichofficialpropagandamachineputsforwardwithgreatskillandpersistencetoapublicoftenremarkablyresistantinthestrongholdofitsinnermostthoughts.Butpartylineisbindingforoutlookandconductofpeoplewhomakeupapparatusofpower--party,secretpoliceandGovernment--anditisexclusivelywiththesethatwehavetodeal.Second,pleasenotethatpremisesonwhichthispartylineisbasedareformostpartsimplynottrue.Experiencehasshownthatpeacefulandmutuallyprofitablecoexistenceofcapitalistandsocialiststatesisentirelypossible.Basicinternalconflictsinadvancedcountriesarenolongerprimarilythosearisingoutofcapitalistownershipofmeansofproduction,butareonesarisingfromadvancedurbanismandindustrialismassuch,whichRussiahasthusfarbeensparednotbys