35野村证券Nomura90页汽车与汽车零部件行业深度研究报告 英文

18November2010NomuraNOMURAINTERNATIONAL(HK)LIMITEDANCHORREPORTNomuraAnchorReportsexaminethekeythemesandvaluedriversthatunderpinoursectorviewsandstockrecommendationsforthenext6to12months.Anyauthorsnamedonthisreportareresearchanalystsunlessotherwiseindicated.Seetheimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertificationsonpages85to88.Autosandautoparts|[e-mail]salesinChinaaresettoexpandby28%to17.5mnunitsin2010F,following46%growthin2009.Saleshavebeenunderpinnedbyfavourablegovernmentpolicies,momentuminland,andfundamentaldemandbackedbyrisingpersonalwealth.Webelievethereisplentyofgasleftinthetank.Ourforecastscallfor15%growthin2011Fto20mn,drivenbyinlanddemand(favouringsmallcars)andreplacementdemand(upwardshiftinproductmix).Welookforcontinuedmomentuminpassengercars,takingsalesto12.8mn(up16.4%).Pricesshouldstaystrongin2011F,withindustryutilisationremainingabove80%amidamodest15%forecastriseincapacityto15mn.Leadingautomakersoperateathigherutilisation,givingthemsignificantoperatingleverage.Insum,welookforsmallcarstoregainmarketsharein2011Foninlanddemandandpossiblepolicysupport,whilelargesedanandSUVsalesarelikelytobebackedbyreplacementdemand.Commercialvehicleslooksetforslowergrowthonahighbaseandpeaking-outofnewlystartedFAIprojects.Inorder,wefavourDongfeng,GeelyandGreatWallfor1H11F.WethinkGAC(NEUTRAL)couldcomeintofocusfor2H11F.WecutWeichaitoNEUTRALonlimitedearningsgrowthpotential.Also,wehighlightNissan,Hyundai,VW(BUYs)andBMW(NEUTRAL)asbeneficiariesofcontinuedgrowthintheChinaautomarket.PreferpassengervehiclesovercommercialvehiclesSupplyinfocus:limitedcapacitygrowthInvestmentconclusion:BUYDongfeng,GeelyandGreatWallNEWTHEMEStocksforactionStockRatingPricePricetargetDongfeng(489HK)BUY16.7621Geely(175HK)BUY4.645.5GreatWall(2333HK)BUY26.3532Nissan(7021JP)BUY7731,100HyundaiMotor(005380KS)BUY177,000210,000VW(VOW3GY)BUY114135Pricedasof12November2010;[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]18November2010Nomura1Autosandautoparts|[e-mail]ActionWeestimateChina’stotalautosaleswillincrease15%y-ytoreach20mnunitsin2011,mainlydrivenbystrongPVsales(16%y-y).Webelievelimitedcapacitygrowthandthus,limitedpricingpressurewillhelpsustainPVmakers’highoperatingmarginsin1H2011.Webelievethesmallcarwillregainmarketshare,butonlyslightly,aslargesedanandSUVsaleswillbesupportedbyreplacementdemand.ReiterateBUYonDongfeng,GeelyandGreatWall.WebelieveNissan,Hyundai,VWandBMWarethemajorbeneficiariesofstronggrowthinChina.CatalystsBetter-than-expectedsalescouldserveasapositivecatalyst.Governmentpolicycouldbenegativeifahightaxrateisleviedonlargedisplacementengines.AnchorthemesWeexpectChinaPVsalestoremainstronginthenextfewyearsduetoimprovingaffordability,whilegovernmentpolicyremainsaswingfactorforproductmix.PassengersinfrontWepreferpassengercarsovercommercialvehiclesWebelievetraditionalpassengervehiclesalesvolumeinChinawillincrease16%y-yin2011Fto12.8mnvehicles.Weexpectpricestostaystrongin2010Fduetolimitedcapacitygrowth,althoughitcouldstartweakeningbyyearend.Weexpectthesmallcartoregainmarketshareduetorisinginlanddemandandpotentialpolicysupport,butonlymarginallyassalesoflargesedanandSUVwillbesupportedbyreplacementdemand.Therefore,webelieveoperatingmarginwillremainhighasin2010.However,wearecautiousonheavydutytruckdemandgrowth(+7%y-y)duetoadeclineinnewlystartedprojectsandahighbaseeffect.Supplyinfocus:limitedcapacitygrowthBasedonourextensivesurveyamongalmostallChineseautomakers,weexpectPVcapacitytoriseby16%y-yto15.1mnunitsin2011;thus,theindustry-wideutilisationrateshouldstayabove80%,asin2010.JVsareexpectedtooperateat104%,whileweexpectdomesticbrandstooperateat70%.Oursurveyalsoshowscapacitywillgrow23%to18.6mnin2012.Contrarytoconsensus,weruleoutthepossibilityofovercapacityintheautoindustryevenin2012.However,webelievesomeautomakers’operatingmarginwilldeclinesharplyin2012duetoapossibledeclineinoperatingleverage.Investmentconclusion:BUYDongfeng,GeelyandGreatWallOurstockpicksarebasedonacombinationofproductcycle,profitabilitycycleandcompanyinvestment/costcycle.WepreferDongfeng,GeelyandGreatWallfor1H2011,inthisorderandbelieveGACcouldbeinterestingin2H2011duetonewproductlaunchesandanimprovingutilisationrate.WedowngradeWeichaitoNEUTRALduetolimitedearningsgrowthpotential.WebelieveNissan,Hyundai,VWandBMWwillbemajorbeneficiariesofthestronggrowthinChina.WeexpecttheChinesegovernmenttoenactsomepoliciestocurblargecarsalesgrowthanddiscourageprivatedrivinginmetropolises(byencouragingtheuseofpublictransport)in2011,whichcouldexertdownwardpressureonshareprices.NOMURAINTERNATIONAL(HK)LIMITEDStocksforactionDongfeng’srichproductline-upandhighoperatingleverageshouldhelpitrecordsolidearningsgrowth.WelikeNissan,HyundaiandVWfortheirgrowthinChinaandinexpensivevaluation.StockRatingPricePric