高盛对全球互联网的研究报告

2008GoldmanSachsInternetConferenceTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.SeetheDisclosuressectionofthisdocumentforimportantdisclosuresabouttransactionsinwhichTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.oranaffiliateisactingasfinancialadvisor.May2008Coverageview:AttractiveTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.doesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.CustomersofTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.intheUnitedStatescanreceiveindependent,third-partyresearchonthecompanyorcompaniescoveredinthisreport,atnocosttothem,wheresuchresearchisavailable.Customerscanaccessthisindependentresearchat://@gs.comGoldman,Sachs&Co.JenniferWatson,[e-mail],Sachs&[e-mail],Sachs&[e-mail],Sachs&Co.GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2TableofcontentsSectionPageBackgroundon6thannualonlineconsumersurvey3Overviewofsurveytakeawaysandindustrytrends4Summaryofcompanyviews9Internetusagetrends15Keydriversofgrowth1.Search–Relevancyremainskey222.Shopping–Innovativeprogramsandselectiondrivegrowth293.Payments–Morepaymentoptionsdriveincrementalbuyers36Mobile:TheNextFrontier40Internationalmarketsincreasinglyimportantgrowthdrivers50Industryforecasts56Detailedcompanyviews63Disclosures88GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch3Sixthannualconsumeronlineuserbehaviorstudy•Weconductedoursixthannualonlineuserbehaviorstudytoassesskeytrendsin:timespentonline;growthofvariousactivitiesonline;comparisonvs.traditionalactivities;driversofonlineactivitieschoice;spendingpatterns;differentiationfactors.Thesurveyalsomeasureddriversofchoicefore-Commerceandnewmediasites,willingnesstopayforonlineservices,andmobiledeviceusage.•Thesamplesizeforoursurveywas2,000-plusonlineusers,conductedbyathirdparty.2,000participantschosenfromanopinionpanelof1millionhouseholdsandresponseswereappropriatelyweightedtoensurethattotaldatawasrepresentativeofInternetpopulation.•ThesurveyalsoanalyzedbehaviorofonlineusersbasedonInternetconnectionaccess(broadbandversusnarrowbandversusmobile),age,andgendertoensureanappropriatesampleandtounderstandfutureofInternetusage.•ThesurveywasconductedfromMarch18,2008throughMarch28,2008.GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch4KeyfindingsfromoursurveySustainingrapidgrowthmayrequirenewinitiativesGeneratingabove-marketgrowthdependentonhavingrightofferings¾Searchremainsacriticalgatewaytotheconsumer•Usersconduct7%moresearchesperweekin2008versus2007.•Relevanceofresultsremainstheprimarydeterminantofsearchenginechoice.•Googlecontinuestogainshareattheexpenseofeveryoneelse.¾Shoppingoccasionsgrewagainin2008,up11%from2007and43%from2006•Categoriesattractingthemostspendingareunchanged:Clothes/Apparel;Books;Travelarrangements;andConsumerelectronics.•Dominantonlinebrandsremainprimarybeneficiariesdespitebricks-and-mortarstoresbecomingmoreprevalentontheweb.•SpecialtyprogramssuchasPrimethatencouragecross-categorybuyingand/orgreaterpurchasefrequencycandriveabove-industrygrowth.¾Paymentsbringincrementalbuyers,particularlyforsmallsites•Adoptionofalternativepaymentsisincreasing,particularlyforPayPal.•ConvenienceandTrust&Safetydriveconsumerchoiceofpaymentmethods.GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch5KeyfindingsfromoursurveyConsumerslikemobileaccesstointernetapps,desiremoreMobileplatformisnextfrontierandopportunityforgrowth¾Consumersareincreasinglyusingtheirmobiledevicesfornon-callingactivities•ActivitiessuchasSearch,Texting,AccessingdirectionsandNewsaregrowing.•E-mail,Search,NewsandWeatheraretheprimaryactivitiesmobileusersciteforwebsiteselection.•Mobileusersrateinterface,relevancy,andspeedofsearchresultsascriticaldecisionfactorsinsearchengineuse.¾Themobileopportunity,however,iscurrentlyrestrictedbytheexperience•SignificantportionofmobilewebuserswouldaccesssitesmorefrequentlyiftheexperiencewasmoresimilartothatonthePC.•e-Commercestandstobenefitmostfromtechnologyimprovements.¾IncreasedmobileusagecanhelpoffsetsummerslowdowninPCusage•TheseasonalityofmobileusageinUnitedStatesisoppositetothatofthePC,whichcouldoffsettheregularsummerslowdown.GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch6KeyfindingsfromoursurveyKeyinternationalmarketsoffersolidgrowthInternationalmarketscontinuetooffersignificantgrowth¾Internetusersaregrowing2X-3XfasterabroadthanintheUnitedStates•Internetusersarelikelytogrowatamid-single-digitrateintheUnitedStatesversuslowdouble-digitsinternationallyovernextthreeyears.¾Large-capUS-basedInternetcompaniesarewellpositioned•Amazon,eBay,andGoogleshouldgenerateabout50%ofrevenueout