中国低碳经济总报告

iiTomasKabergerKnutAlfsenHawKuangLimMattiaRomani/MelindaBohannonTrevorHouserBerniceLeeAntonyFroggattFelixPrestoniiiWilliamBlythCO2BerniceLeePhilipReuchlin/MarcelEngeliv1...............................................................12...............................................62.1....................................................................62.2................................................................................72.3................................................................................83.......................................94.....................................................115.............145.1...................................................................155.2.......................................................................175.3..............................................................................176.......................................................................................2411“”“”i2220501/2ii203036GT1/32050GDP0.6-1.4%iii2030GDP-3.9%3.4%iv250v20505000viIEA450ppm18%20501vii2030200viii11GDP1GDP5%20%2005185020403GDP3%ix200512.7GDP2%28.9x2xi1012.5%5%10xii101533GDP1/4241451201171“”2020200025%UNFCCC“”20301060/300020212050780%2008205080%2020199034%42%25%2025100%20122050200250%20301.452020202520002050199050%550ppm20504.540%2008702009201120202005115%-85%2020200517%205080%202015%20259002020199025%2020199030%UNFCCC20073202020%20%10%622.130202006GDPGDP5.5%15%30%54%20072004400Mtoe25%171Mtoe10%20016%7%10%72.2---20%---30%---0.5---60%201020201.5200087%15%200620102010400015424201.4200831002007500200812GW2020100GW2.3420062020MOST9328%202020015,200550%,14%11%101/1010%6.511720062020112WBCSD(2009)4200520506.4%CCSCCS32050ScenarioFrameworkGoodeffectsonenergysecurityBadeffectsonClimateChangeBadeffectsonenergysecurityGoodeffectsonClimateChangeBaUScenarioHighGDPlowcarbonscenarioHighGDPEnhancedLowCarbonScenarioLowGDPLowCarbonScenario3431225%50%4134348.280.440.039.2101.982.955.344.742.8116.686.081.766.652.550.1127.188.251.2402-20330-222005-202020020040040-2050%4.7%3.2%2.6%3.5%5.0%3.6%24.2.5%%5.2%3.5%24.4.5%050010001500200025003000350040002000200520102020203020402050MtcCO2EmissionBaUHLCHELCLLC01000200030004000500060007000200520102020203020402050MtcePrimaryEnergyDemandBaselineHLCHELCLLC1455665.12030880%203020%44.75.92030CCS720202030205060%62%57%202016%203024%205030%CCS2030157,205051.22005——————————————————16175.2GDPGDP——2050GDP7585%4%50%205030%20252030——2050350%20302050CCS2030——GDP890%10GDP5%——65.3185%20052010202020302040205012.4%10.0%6.7%4.7%3.6%3.0%47.8%49.0%46.6%42.9%37.6%33.4%39.8%40.9%46.7%52.5%58.8%63.7%6200020052007/gce/kWh392316370314356312/kgce/t784646714610668610/kWh154801460014680141001448814100/kgce/t181126167127158127/kgce/t112571410736299846292008240%71972010-20302030—2050IGCCCCSIGCCCCSCCSOECD2/3200035.9%200741.9%20200780%205%350%90%2020203020503.88.315.920.3%27.3%40.9%CCS212030205013.8202020302050202070%202055%203050%20501/32020IGCC320/2030IGCC50%290/2050270/2020203055%65%80%20205.520307LNG2020203020508%12%14%20205.535%920%8203050%20501/31/31/31/3228202020%35%20%15%15%10%350GW,5GW10120GW20%30%35400GW,100GW1000GW2020CCS41070%6R1Reduce——2Re-evaluate——3Reuse——4Recycle——5Rescue——6“Re-calculate”carbonfootprint“”23“”“”“”“”“”1.9~2.61.50.81.2%0.50.8%1.01.5%0.5%1.5%2.54%249zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz612345678256.1“”“”“”GDPGDP117%6%GDP223%GDP20%“”6.226/6.31/0.8/1227346.4CDMCDM6.5286.6TopRunner/296.76.830i“”“”——iiMcKinsey&Co“PathwaystoaLowCarbonEconomy:Version2oftheGlobalGHGAbatementCostCurve”iiiMcKinseyGlobalInstitute,2008.TheCarbonProductivityChallenge:CurbingClimate31ChangeandSustainingEconomicGrowthivSternReview“TheEconomicsofClimateChange”(table10.1)vGuiyangZhuang,LowCarbonEconomy:NoAlternativesLeftforChina,ChineseAcademyofSocialScience,May,2007viHMTreasury,SternReview:TheEconomicsofClimateChange,ExecutiveSummary,2006viiIEA(2008),EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2008,InternationalEnergyAgencyviiiEuropeanRenewableEnergyCouncil,GreenpeaceInternational,WorkingfortheClimate,RenewableEnergyandtheGreenJobRevolution,August2009ixDanielWallis,‘Disasterslossesmaytop$1trillion/yrby2040-UN’,Reuters,14November2006xMinistryofCivilAffairsinNingxia.See:LiYue,WuYanjuan,Conway,D.,Preston,F.,LinErda,ZhangJisheng,WangTaoming,JiaYi,GaoQingzhu,Shifeng,JuHui(2008)ClimateandLivelihoodsinRuralNingxia:FinalReport.AEAGroup.26pp.“Understandingcarbonlock-in”EnergyPolicy28p817-830xiiMNP(2005)MeetingtheEU20Cclimatetarget:globalandregionalemissionsimplications:M.G.J.denElzen,M.einshausen,NetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency,2005.