LED产业发展机遇与挑战-2

2010/3/221LEDManufacturingForumMoore’sLawandHaitz’sLawinAchievingOurEnergyFutureTomMorrowVicePresidentSEMI2Outline•Moore’sLawandHaitz’sLaw•SolidStateLightingCost/Performance–Greatachievements–Continuingchallenges•SemiconductorSupplyChain:LessonsLearned–Moore’sLawRealized–Semiconductors1975~LEDs2009•TechnologyRoadmapsandIndustryStandards•PVExperience•Recommendation3SEMIproductsandservicesinclude:•Expositions:SEMICON®,FPD•Marketresearch&statistics•InternationalStandards•Publicpolicy/EHS•Technical&BusinessConferences•IndustryInformation•Website:•Information•GlobalMarkets•People—fromgovernmentstocustomersHsinchuHsinchuSEMISEMI®:TheGlobalAssociation:TheGlobalAssociationSeoulSeoulTokyoTokyoSingaporeSingaporeBeijingBeijingSanJoseSanJoseBrusselsBrusselsMoscowMoscowWashingtonDCWashingtonDCShanghaiShanghaiHsinchuHsinchuBangaloreBangaloreBerlinBerlin4EnablingNewIndustriesPrintedElectronicsMEMS/MSTSolarPVFlatPanelDisplayHighBrightnessLEDS(SolidStateLighting)5Moore’sLawSource:Electronics,Volume38,Number8,April19,1965•Moore'sLaw:Thelong-termtrendinwhichthenumberoftransistorsthatcanbeplacedinexpensivelyonanintegratedcircuithasdoubledapproximatelyeverytwoyears.•Moore'slawhascontinuedforoverhalfacenturyandpreciselydescribesadrivingforceoftechnologicalchangeinthelate20thandearly21stcenturies6Moore’sLawBenefits1975-US$1BillionSize=House2010-US$200Pocket-Size7SemiconductorTechnologyEnablesAHealthyEnergyFuture•SemiconductorTechnologyistheworld’smosteffectiveenergyefficiencytechnology.–IftheUSreliedupon1976semiconductortechnologies,itwouldhaveconsumedabout20%moreelectricityin2006andbuiltadditional184largeelectricpowerplantstosatisfythesameenergydemand.»AmericanCouncilforanEnergy-EfficientEconomy(ACEEE)reportSemiconductorTechnologies:ThePotentialtoRevolutionizeU.S.EnergyProductivity,“–SemiconductortechnologiesappliedtoLEDs,solarPV,energyharvesting,thinbatterieswillbemajorcontributorstoourenergyfuture8Moore’sLaw:AnIndustryAgreementtoWorkTogether“Initially,justanobservationtopredict[that]thiswasawaytocheapelectronics...buttheindustrymadeitaself-fulfillingprophesy…now,theindustryroadmapsarebasedonthatcontinuedrateofimprovement…alltheparticipantsinthebusinessrecognizethatiftheydon’tmovethatfasttheyfallbehindtechnology.”ExcerptsfromAConversationwithGordonMoore:Moore’sLawIntel2005Moore'sLaw:Thelong-termtrendinwhichthenumberoftransistorsthatcanbeplacedinexpensivelyonanintegratedcircuithasdoubledapproximatelyeverytwoyears.9Moore’sLawRealizedThroughRoadmapsandStandards“Roadmapsdefinewherefirmscompete.Standardsdefinewheretheycollaborate10SemiconductorsToday•Achieved4,000,000Xcostreductionsince1975–~$5x10-9•Featuresizesreducedfrom4micronto45nanometer–Scalingdelivers~8000x•Manufacturingefficienciesaccountforapproximately500xcostreductionSourcesofCostReductionTechnologyShrink--30-50%ReductionYearlyProductivityImprovement--10-30%ReductionYearlyImprovedYield--10-15%YearlyWaferSize--30-50%Every10-15yearsHynix,ITPC,November200811LEDsFollowHaitz’sLawHaitz'sLaw:everydecade,thecostperlumenfallsbyafactorof10,theamountoflightgeneratedperLEDpackageincreasesbyafactorof20,foragivenwavelength(color)oflightSource:DOE2008MultiyearProgramPlan,referencingRolandHaitzandLumiled12LEDMarketGrowth-3000200070001200017000220001995199719992001200320052007200920112013MarketSize($Millions)Source:StrategiesUnlimited,OSRAMIndustrialAutoMobileTVPowerLighting13LEDChallengesGoingForward•Mostpricereductionstodatehavecomefromefficiencyimprovements•Futurecostreductionswillcomefromyield,productivityandcostreductionCostReductionGoals:20XEfficiencyGains:2XWhiteLightLEDDeviceCostProjection(logarithmicscale)Source:2008DOEMultiyearProgramPlanWhiteLightLEDDeviceEfficacyTargets,LaboratoryandCommercial.Source:2008DOEMultiyearProgramPlan14HB-LEDManufacturingToday•Highlyproprietaryprocesses,oftenwithcustomizedandmodifiedequipment•3”and4’wafers•Throughput;Approximately50wafersperhour•OptimalYields:Low•EquipmentUtilization:ModerateCurrentFutureWaferSizeandTypeSource:StrategiesUnlimited15SemiconductorManufacturingin1975•Highlyproprietaryprocesses,oftenwithcustomizedandmodifiedequipment•2”-3”wafers•Throughput;Approximately50wafersperhour•Yields:Low~50%•EquipmentUtilization:~50%16PotentialRoadmaptowardSSLCostCompetitivenessLEDStatusLEDGoalContributiontoCostReductionTargetWaferSize(mm)Throughput(wafers/hour)OptimalYields(%)EquipmentProductivity50-75100+2X50~100~2X~60%90%~1.5X~50%90%~2X17KeystoSuccess•Effective,ongoingindustrycollaboration–TechnologyRoadmap•BestKnownPractices–GlobalSourcing–MaterialsInnovation–Automation•IndustryStandards18ImpactofStandards•DIN(GermanInstituteforStandardization)Study.EconomicBenefitsofStandardization:–Standardscontributemoretoeconomicgrowththanpatentsandlicenses–Companiesthatparticipateactivelyinstandardsworkhaveaheadstartontheircompetitorsinadaptingtomarketdemandsandnewtechnologies•DTIStudy(UKDepartmentofTradeandIndustry)–Formalstandardscontribute£2.5billiontothegrowthoftheUKeconomyannually–Standardsareanenablerofinnovation