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_____112342001139.642006344.2029.30200460200111.8722.501.902006,14.3016.003(21.9322.8621.37)20.006532.5460602665652760(2)12603,43StudytheimpactoftheelderlyofthemedicalinsurancefundCandidate:YangDaoweiSupervisor:Vice-prof.XiongGuanglianprof.ChengMaojinAbstractObjectiveTostudytheagedistributionandtheageingstatusofthemedicalinsurancepopulation,andtheirdemandformedicalservicesamongdifferentages.Revealedthedistributionofmedicalexpenses,andtheexpendituresofmedicalinsurancefund.Assessthemedicalinsurancefundbalancebytheimpactoftheagingpopulation.MethodSeveralrepresentativeareaswereselectedforinvestigationsandstudies:Tianjin,Hunan,Fujian,Changsha,Qinhuangdao,Suzhou,Yancheng.Collectthedataofsocialmedicalinsurancesystemandpolicies,theannualpayments,thenumberofparticipants,andpayexpendituresintheregion(forregional),mainlyfromthemedicalinsurancemanagementcenter.ResultIntheinvestigationareas,growthinthenumberofparticipantsisthelargestinTianjin,increasedfrom1,396,400peopleto3,442,000people;Tianjin’saveragegrowthrateisalsothefastest,reaching29.30percent,Butafter2004theannualgrowthrateofallregionsingraduallydeclining.In2001,22.50%participantsinTianjinwereover60years,1.90timesofthatinYancheng(11.87%).In2006,Yanchenghasalreadyreached14.30%,andotherregionsweremorethan16.00%,threeareas(Hunanstraight21.93%,22.86%,Tianjin,Changsha21.37%)weremorethan20.00%.Especiallytheageproportionover65yearshasgrownrapidly,thehighestwasHunan,hasreached32.54percentagepoints.Theexpenditureoftheover-60-yearagegroupwas2to6timesoftheagegroupunder60yearsgenerally,Similarly,theover-65-yearagegroupwas2to7timesoftheunder-65-yearsagegroup.themedicalexpensesproportionofover-60-yearspersistentlyincreased.Therearetwopositivefactors(thepreservingandincreasingthecoverage)andthreenegativefactors(age,expenses,raise)impactthemedicalinsurancefundbalances.Conclusion(1)thenumberofparticipantshasincreasedyearbyyear,butthetrendofincreaseratewasgraduallydeclining.4(2)Theageingstatusesofthepopulationwereimbalancebetweenregions,andtheagingtrendweremoreobviousthanthegeneralpopulation.Theproportionoftheover-60-yearspopulationgrowthsoon,andtheaverageageisimproving,andmedicalinsuranceamongtheelderlypopulationhasahighstartingpoint,toreachahigherlevelandtheproportionofoldparticipantsincreasesevenfaster(3)Urbanelderlypopulationwillincreasethebasicmedicalinsurancepaymentexpenditure,andtheelderlypopulationpaysnomedicalinsurance,sothatmedicalinsurancefunddeficitsandtheexistenceofthegradualincreaseinrisk.(4)Theagefactorgivesanegativeimpacttothemedicalinsurancefundbalance.Thisshowsthattheagingimpactonthestableoperationofmedicalinsuranceseriously.KeywordtheElderlymedicalinsurancefundexpenditures;basicmedicalinsurance51998[1],2030,20[2]60106572000657202513.53-4271.4422[3][4]1.541526.4620708[5]20002006712341.1.1712342001-20061.21.2.11.2.2:2001-20061.2.37010060-902001-200660-90171.2001200660-9012……1%2%12……1%2%......+-1.2.4SPSSv13.0SAS8.22.2.104062.1.120011117061.5220021396731.3820031511431.5820041643651.5720051804491.5320061948921.50282.2001-2006%2001200220032004200520066017.1817.5017.9817.8218.2718.7960646.826.165.985.525.485.516510.3611.3412.0112.3012.7913.2765696.076.396.536.225.895.4870904.294.955.476.086.907.792.1.220011799271.3820022047421.3920032143641.3920042211651.3820052316531.3620062392821.3333.2001-2006%2001200220032004200520066021.4221.5121.6521.9621.9421.9360649.388.677.697.126.395.806512.0412.8413.9614.8415.5516.1365697.197.577.888.027.927.5370904.805.246.056.777.608.572.1.32001959861.1220021416631.3120031708951.3020041881431.3620052009431.3220062255491.32494.2001-20062001200220032004200520066013.2813.4915.6115.9916.4516.8460646.015.926.236.055.925.82657.277.579.389.9410.5311.0265694.234.305.065.325.325.2870903.023.244.294.665.175.702.1.420047874120.9720058098530.9520068268160.9355.2004-200620012002200320042005200660………15.5016.1117.086064………4.704.785.1565………10.8011.3311.936569………3.833.773.837090………6.947.457.992.1.5200113963991.10200225020031.07200325472011.03200426302960.98200529906071.02200634419991.046106.2001-20062001200220032004200520066022.5022.1622.4624.8024.3222.8660646.787.086.917.307.487.106515.7215.0815.5517.5016.8415.7665696.956.746.606.976.315.5870908.728.298.8910.4710.459.902.1.62001843211.362002931601.3720031004681.3520041381601.1720051270471.3720061335891.3877.2001-20062001200220032004200520066011.8712.2012.2712.4113.9214.3060645.465.465.144.945.665.62656.416.747.137.478.268.6865693.643.924.023.974.284.3470902.742.773.083.473.934.302.1.720012933010.9120024219730.8420034693760.8320044992000.8420055543900.8520065801290.878118.2001-20062001200220032004200520066019.9220.0521.8822.1222.3721.3760646.796.406.566.126.256.176513.1313.6515.3216.0016.1215.2065695.735.836.166.295.595.5870907.327.759.169.6010.089.502.2[6-10]100%2001-20069129.2001-20062001200220032004200520061117061396731511431643651804491948921799272047422143642211652316532392829598614166317089518814320094322554978741280985382681613963992502003254720126302962990607344199984621931601004681381601270171335