规划师主体模型：一项低碳城市形态规划支持的工具

1城市模型与规划支持系统1.1规划支持系统在城市规划中的应用探索1.2多尺度的北京城市空间发展模型1.3规划师主体模型：一项低碳城市形态规划支持的工具1.4囊括方法、软件和模型的规划支持系统框架体系1.5面向空间规划的微观模拟2大模型与定量城市研究2.1大模型及中国应用案例2.2基于OpenStreetMap和兴趣点数据的地块特征自动识别2.3地块尺度中国所有城市的空间扩张模拟2.4中国PM2.5的人口暴露评估2.5利用北京公共交通刷卡数据的若干定量城市研究2.6当前定量城市研究的四项变革3规划设计响应3.1数据增强设计：新数据环境下的规划设计回应与改变3.2街道城市主义3.3城市规划实施评价：针对中国城市的分析框架3.4基于人类活动和移动数据的城市增长边界实施评价3.5中国收缩城市及其研究框架城市模型及其规划设计响应3.6历史上的北京规划AppliedUrbanModelsandTheirApplicationsinUrbanPlanning&Design3.6HistoricalcityplansinBeijing1UrbanModelsandPlanningSupportSystems1.Planningsupportsystemsinurbanplanning2.Beijingurbanspatialdevelopmentmodelfamilies1.3PlannerAgents:Atoolkitforsupportplanningalowcarbonurbanform4.Anappliedplanningsupporttoolkitincludingquantitativemethods,softwareandmodelsinChina5.Urbanmicro-simulationforspatialplanning2BigModelsandQuantitativeUrbanStudies1.Bigmodels:Severalfine-scaleurbanstudiesforthewholeChina2.Automatedidentificationandcharacterizationofparcels(AICP)withOpenStreetMapandpointsofinterest3.SimulatingurbanexpansionattheparcellevelforallChinesecities4.EstimatingpopulationexposuretoPM2.5inChina5.Buslandscapes:Analyzingcommutingpatternusingbus/metrosmartcarddatainBeijing6.Fourchangesonquantitativeurbanstudiesinthebigdataera3ApplicationsinUrbanPlanning&Design1.Dataaugmenteddesign(DAD):Planning&designinnewdataenvironment2.Streeturbanism3.Evaluationofurbanplanningimplementation:AnanalyticalframeworkforChinesecitiesandcasestudyofBeijing4.Evaluatingtheeffectivenessofurbangrowthboundarieswithhumanmobilitydata5.ShrinkingcitiesinChinaandtheresearchagenda1INTRODUCTIONLandusepattern(urbanform),•orlanduselayout,isakeypartofphysicalplan(masterordetailed)–Spatialdistributionoflanduseanddensity–Hardtopredictbyaplanningsupportsystem(PSS)–Proxyofcarbonemissionandenergyconsumption•Landusepatternscenarioanalysis(LUPSA)–mostareparcel-based–CUF(Landis1994)–Whatif?(Klosterman1999)–INDEX(Allen2001)–iCity(Stevensetal.2007)–OtherpapersregardinglanduselayoutoptimizationPlannersinLUPSAtools•Lessattentionwaspaidonthebehaviorofurbanplanners•Ourresearchquestion:Howdoplannerscompilelandusepattern?–Whatarerules(preferences)?–Howtoidentifytheserules?–Aretheserulesvaryingamongplanners?–CouldwedevelopaPSSfor“simulating”landusepatternsusingtheidentifiedrules?–Isthepatternassociatewithlowcarbonemission?BuildingcityinavitroHatnerandBenenson,2007,EPBTheentropyofLEGOCrompton,2012,EPBInthisresearch,wewillidentifyplannerrulesby•Questionnaire–Whatoneplannerwilldo•Miningplandrawings–WhatoneplannerhasdoneThenwewilldevelopaPSS(PlannerAgents),andsimulatelandusepatternusingidentifiedrules.PlannerAPlannerCPlannerBIdeallyandhopefullyto•saveplanner’stimeandpromoteplancompilationefficiency•Supportplanningalowcarbonurbanform•E.g.–Aplanarea–Identifiedrulesof20planners–Generate20patternsinoneminutebyusingPlannerAgent–Theprincipalinvestigatorchoosesaperfectone–All20plannersfocusonitandproposethefinaldrawing–PlannerC’sworkassociateswithlowcarbon2PLANNERAGENTSPlannertypes•Non-spatialplanners–Infrastructure,transportation–Notdirectlywithlandusepattern•Spatialplanners–Responsibleforpreparinglandusepattern•Chiefplanner–ConfirmthefinalplanschemeSpatialplanner:thegeneralprocess1.Totalsinarea–Foreachtypeoflanduse(e.g.residential,commercialandindustrial)–Fromdecisionmakersorforecastedbymacromodels2.Constraints–Geographicalcontext:slope,ecospace–Institutionalconstraints:developmentrestrictions3.Negotiatingwithnon-spatialplanners(factors)–Assumeplannedfacilities,roads,citycenters,CBD,etc.,arereadypriortoplanalandusepattern–Weightfactors4.Negotiatingwithcitizens(publicparticipationprocess)–NotaccountedinourcurrentresearchSpatialplanner:simplifiedrules•Thetaste(weight)ofeachlanduseonfactorsisdifferent.•Theweightcouldbecalibratedusingquestionnaireordataminingonexistingplanarchives(landusewiththehighestprobabilitywouldbeselectedforaparcel).–E.g.,industrialparcelstendtobelocatedalongmaintransportationnetwork,commercialparcelsaroundamenities.b巳Questionnairesurvey[QVirt叫real阳曰RealmodelPlanningrules(requirementsandpreferences):PublicfacilityNeighborNaturalreserveParcelsize,formBlockSubwaysiteLocalconditionsFormulatingcomprehensiveconstraintsPlanninglawPlanningguidelinePhysicalgeographicstatusLandusepa“ern2bySPA2Landusepa“ern1M芷e:thermthxtform.Iati咱lar略usepcttem283isthesar.astf回f町Iandusepcttem1.Landusepattern1constraintsPhysicalgeographicstatus……Note:themethodformulatingland-usepattern2&3isthesameasthatforland-usepattern1.EvaluatinglandusepatternsTheideallandusepatternSPA2SPA1SPA3betweenSPA1andEPAsRANote:thesteps,forwhichthebackgroundisgrayareconsideredinthisarticle.RAevaluation•Landusepatternevaluation–Spatialautocorrelation(Moran’sIandLISA)–LandscapemetricsusingFRAGSTATS–FEE-MASmodel(Long2011)•CalculatingpotentialtransportenergyconsumptionLandusepattern2bySPA2Landusepattern3bySPA3CPACoordinatinglandusepatterns3BEIJINGAPPLICATIONThecentralcityofBeijing1085km218bigzones•BeiingDetailedPlan(-2020)•Landuseplanineachzonehasbeenexclusivelydesignedbyaresponsibleplanner,in2007•AperfectdataforapplyingPlannerAgents21factorsZone12a