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3:,,,:,,,,,:3,,:zhanglihua71@126.com,:650221;,,:wangchong.wch@gmail.com,:210046(70663012),,,,,(2001),,;,(2002),,,,(2003),,,(2003),,(2001),,,,,,,441:(2002),,,(2002),,,,(2005),,,,(2000),,,(2005),,:(1),;(2),,,,,,,,(),,,,,(PrincipalComponentMethod);,,,;,,()(1),,,,,1(2),1m,4,m=44ij(i=1,,4,j=1,2,,17),pi(i=1,,4)(2):541200810,pi=i1x1+i2x2++ijxj19:a.(2002)20002002b.:2005,2005,2005(3),p,(),2()+,,,;,,20.89-0.181.080.07-0.750.65-0.49-0.24()1.472.31.070.76-0.04-0.232.011.25()0.970.513.1-0.35-1.65-0.370.26-1.33()-0.68-3.06-0.29-1.09-2.54-2.12-0.97641:(2005),,,,,,,,,;(Bahal,2002),(,2005),,,,,:,;,,,,20052005,2005(1):Ok=1+1Dk+1Zk+k1(1)(1),Okk,,Dk(,),Zk,()()()(),111,k13(1)OLS3,,,,3741200810(1)OLS,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(2002);(2003,2005);(2001);(2005),(Tiebout,1956:416424;Oates,1969:957961;Montinolaetal,1995;QianWeingast,1996,1997;,2001),,,,,,3OLSOk=-3.15333+(1.11E206)3D333k+0.049nonfiscal333k(-12.15)(12.31)(6.04)R2=0.9204;adjR2=0.9147;DW=1.8670;F2value=161.89;Akaikecriterion=0.9929;Schwarzcriterion=1.1317:t,3331%nonfiscal(%),OLS,,;,,,,,(TSLS)(GMM)TSLSGMM(AngristandKrueger1999,2001),,(Acemoglu,2001;Glaeser,2004),,,,,,,90,,,2004,,,,,,,,,(2)(3):zk=2+2Mk+2Xk+2Zk+k2(2)Mk=3+3Dk+3D2k+3Xk+3Zk+k3(3)(2),zkk,Mk841:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(Pritchett,2001),,(,2005),(Maddala,2001),Zk,Xk(3)Dk,(4)R201410149,,,DkD2k(3)(45),((2))(42),,Lagrangemultipliertest(HausmanWuexclusionrestrictiontest),(3),TSLS2102,GMM2161,,,4(%)()OLSTSLSGMMOLS()-26.55-32.49-42.973326865.00(-3.07)333(-5.13)333(-8.58)333(3.92)333(%)1.611.922.30-156339.50(4.24)333(7.97)333(12.60)333(-4.37)333()6.20E2067.39E2066.84E206(3.95)333(7.40)333(20.38)333()1.13E2060.517(0.96)(4.99)333-2.12E214-1.04E208(-0.79)(-3.97)33331313131R20.470.490.410.45:t,3331%,,,,,,,(1)OLS,,,,,(1)3,;,((2)4),:,9412008102002,60%40%,70%80%,(,2004),,(,2004),(1)3,,?(2)(3)4,,,,,,,,,,?(2)(3)4,(434),,,,,(),,(%)1192(TSLS)2130(GMM),t719712160,,(%)(),,156339150(425)0100000739(TSLS)0100000684(GMM),111553(-15633915030100000739,433,TSLS)110693(-15633915030100000684,434,GMM),1192(TSLS)2130(GMM)(4234),,017647(1192-111553=017647,TSLS)112306(2130-110693=112306,GMM),0,(%),,(),,01517(45),(-1104E208)12,,;051::4%:,,,200738,,,2,,:,31,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,;,,,,,,:11,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1512008102008742006120076,16,61189,5445%(2007)1998200231,,64157%21,,,,,,,,,:,2003,1365126,20%,20042010:1638131,1965197,2359116,2830199,3397119,4076163,4891196,20032007(186371362067519920249142348212629557149)44133%47121%56166%57145%61128%,,,,:(1),(2),(3),,,,2001:,2003:,31,2005:,8,2002:,9,2003::,11,2005:,11,2002:,5,2000:,,2005:SPSS,3,2001:,3212,2003:,19,2005:,5Acemoglu,Daron,SimonJohenson,andJamesA.Robinson,2001,TheColonialofComparativeDevelopment:AnEmpiricalInvestigation,251:,2006,379197,893158,513161,513116;82175,213107,130195;112137,160176,52192;184185,519175,33419,360188,,,,276128,115,,,,(),,,70%AmericanEconomicReview,91(5):1369401.AngristJoshua&AlanKrueger,2001,InstrumentalVariablesandtheSearchforIdentification:FromSupplyandDemandtoNaturalExperiments,JournalofEconomicPerspectives,15(4):6985.AngristJoshua&AlanKrueger,1999,EmpiricalSrategiesinLaborEconomics,HandbookofLaborEconomics3A,Elsevier.Arellano,ManuelandStephenBond,1991,SomeTestsofSpecificationforPanelDate:MonteEvidenceandanApplicationtoEmployment,ReviewofEconomicStudies,58(2):277297.Blundell,RichardandStephenBond,1998,GMMEstimationwithPersistentPanelData:anApplicationtoProductions,TheInstituteforFiscalStudies,WorkingPaperSeriesNo.W99P4.Glaeser,EdwardL.,RafaelLaPorta,FlorencioLopez2de2Silanes,andAndreiShleifer,2004,DoInstitutionCauseGrowthNBERWorkingPaper10568,http:PP:CausalityandCauses,JournalofMonetaryEconomics,46:3177.ResolvingSystemDeficienciesintheFinancialGuaranteeofRuralCompulsoryEducationCentralTransferPaymentSystemandthePowersoftheAuthorityStructuralAdjustmentZhangLihuaandWangChong(YunanUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,NanjingUniversityofFinanceandEconomics)Abstract:Becauseofconstraintswiththeexistingfinancialsystem,thelackofmacroeconomicpoliciesguidance,andespeciallythemismatchbetweenintergovernmentalfinancialauthorities,theruralcompulsoryeducationinvestmentsystemthatinvestedmainlybythelocalgovernment,county2basedandgradingburdenishardtoprovideacomprehensive,long2termsupport.Inviewofthecurrentacademichighexpectationsthroughinnovativeandperfectcentraltransferpaymentsystemforruralcompulsoryeducationtoresolvesecurityissues,thispaperpresentsdifferentviews:theroleofcentraltransferpaymentsystemwasgreatlyweakenedbecauseofitsowninherentflaws.Thispaperattemptstobuildframeworkbasedonanalysisofshortcomingsofthetransferpaymentinthefinancialguaranteeofruralcompulsoryeducationsystem,andseekanothersolutionpathfromintergovernmentalexpendituredutiesandauthorityallocationofcompulsoryeducationinruralareas.KeyWords:RuralCompulsoryEducation;TransferPaymentSystem;IntergovernmentalAuthorityStructuralAdjustmentJELClassification:H520,H710(:)(:)351200810