Regional Disparities and Economic Growth in Russia

RegionaldisparitiesandeconomicgrowthinRussia:newgrowthpatternsandcatchingupRobertaBeniniÆAdamCzyzewskiPublishedonline:8December2007
SpringerScience+BusinessMedia,LLC.2007AbstractTheregionaldisparitiesinRussiaareincreasingsincetransitionstartedinthe1990s,asresultofthestructuralprocessesofreorganisationandreallocationsofresourcestakingplaceintheterritory.Thescopesofthiscontributionaretwofolds:toclarifythetheoreticalandpolicybackgroundinanalysingregionaldevelopmentinthetransitionandinparticularinRussia,andtoanalysethespec-ificityofthespatialdevelopmentandtheregionaldisparitiespatternsinRussia.Theeconomicgeographyisrecognisedamongthedifferenttheories,veryusefulforhelpingtounderstandinparticulartherecentphenomenaofnewconcentrationpatterninRussia,givingakeyofanalysisofnewpolarisationtrends:newtrendstowardurbanconcentrationsintheWesternregions,de-populationoftheEasternregions,ruraldeclineinthoseregionsfarawayfromlargeurbanagglomerations.Infacttheempiricalanalysisindicatestwodominantphenomenaintheup-surgingofregionaldisparities:theincreasingweightofthecapitalcity,Moscowasagglom-erationeffectsbringsthepolarisationphenomena;andthestrengtheningofthenaturalresourcesandenergyendowedregions.ThereisthequestionwhetherRussia,atthisstageofdevelopment,canpursueanactiveregionalpolicytowardequitytargetsorwhether,forthetargetofsustainingmacro-economicgrowth,thereistheurgencytokeepselectedprioritiesbasedonthebestperformingpoles.Adifficultbalancebetweenthetwotargetswouldbethemostsuitableanswer.KeywordsMacroeconomicanalysisofeconomicdevelopment
Regionaleconomics:growthdevelopmentandchanges
Regionaldevelopmentpolicy
DemographictrendR.Benini(&)CentreforEurope,Euro-AsiaandMediterraneancountries(CENCODE),UniversityofBolognainRavenna,ViaOberdan,1,48100Ravenna,Italye-mail:[e-mail]oland,Warsaw,Poland123EconChange(2007)40:91–135DOI10.1007/s10644-007-9026-0JELClassificationsO11
R11
R58
J111Introduction:thescopesofthepaperThesignificantincreasingofregionaldisparitiesinthelastdecadeinRussia,indicatesthatsignificantandstructuralprocessesofreorganisationandreallocationsofresourcesaretakingplaceintheterritory.Therapiddisruptionofthepreviousplanningsystemwiththeconsequentoutputshockhasheavilyimpactedtheterritory,atdifferentpacesandatvariousdegrees,dependingofasetofeconomic,spatialaswellasinstitutionalandsocialfactorsthathavemodifieddifferentlytheterritorialshape.Thewayinitialoutputdeclineaffectedregionsdependednotonlyonthestrengthoftheshockbutalsoontheregionalallocationofcapacitiesandonthediversificationofregionaloutput.Accordingly,someregionswerehitmorebytheshrinkingoutputandincomethanotherregions.Relativepositionofregionsvis-a`-visthecountryaverageandvis-a`-viseachotherchangedsubstantially.Thereareconsequentlyshort-mediumtermimpactonsectoralreallocationofresourcesbutalsolong-termimpactonthespatialdimension,thatfortherelativeimmobilityofsomeoftheassetsintheterritoryas—urbanagglomerationsandinfrastructures—giverisetomoreslowchangesintheterritorialconurbation.Thesenewregionalgaps,couldsuggestinprinciple,thattheygoalongthesamepaththatWesterncountriesexperiencescouldindicate,asfarasmarketmechanismreplacesthepreviousplanningallocation:thephenomenaofnewpolarisation,concentrationandabandonofoldlocations,couldindicatethatsimilartomarketeconomiesoutcomesaregoingtotakeplaceorreinforcefurtheralsoinRussia,inthenext10–20yearstocome,totheextentthatmarketgetdeeperandconsolidateintheentireeconomicspace.However,wethinkthatbeyondsomegeneralexpectations,specificstructuralandinstitutionalbackgroundmightsuggestboth,acertainpeculiarityoftheRussiancase,aswellastheparticularstageofitseconomicdevelopment,stillheavilyinvolvedintheinstabilityofthetransitionthatcouldsubstantiallydeviatefromastandardbenchmarkingreference,ifspecificconditions1impedeamorelikelymarketdevelopment.ThereareatleastthreefactorsthatinthecaseofRussia,needtobeconsidered—onlyChina,amongthecountriesintransition,mighthavesomesimilaritiesthatcouldjustifysomepeculiarapproach—forunderstandingthedimensionandtheoriginoftheunequalspatialdevelopment,beyondthesectoralimpactofthereallocationofresourcesinthetransition.1Anexcessivesimplificationoflikelymarketdevelopmentappliedtoaneconomythathasdeepstructuralunbalancesconsolidatedinitspastoldandrecenthistory,likeRussia,couldbeinappropriatealsobecausedistortionstomarketdevelopment,ashaveemergedsincetransitionstarted,seemtoindicatethatfundamentalbarrierstocompetitionandmobilityoffactorscouldlikelyforlongsubsist,makinghighlyunpredictablethedegreebywhichabstractstylisedmarketfunctioningwillfullyoperateinthenationaland,evenmore,intheregionalcontext.92EconChange(2007)40:91–135123i.Thesizeofthecountryandtheimportanceofthegeo-physicalimplicationsthatmakeobjectivelyaninevitableheavyimpactontheeconomicpotential,mobilityoraccesstoparticularplaces/andsectors,locationattraction.Thismixtureofgeo-physicalfeatures,indicatethatthecomparisonamongregionsbythemselvesisheavilyunderminedbynaturalfactors.Ifinthepreviousplanningsystemthesegeo-physicaldiff